Key Facts
- Senegal and Iraq are still without points in Group I; only a decisive victory keeps their hopes alive in the standings for third-place teams.
- Senegal looked dangerous offensively in their 2–3 loss to Norway, but Ismaïla Sarr’s two goals once again masked defensive problems after halftime.
- Iraq lost 0–3 to France and 1–4 to Norway; according to current data, they’ve struggled to score, especially after halftime.
- Edouard Mendy’s knee issues are likely to force Senegal to make a goalkeeper change, which means Yehvann Diouf is expected to start behind Koulibaly and Niakhaté.
- Over 2.5 goals seems statistically likely, as Senegal’s last five games averaged 3.6 goals and Iraq has conceded goals in four of those matches.
- Both teams to score remains an interesting bet despite the risk: Senegal has scored and conceded in four of five games, while Iraq has scored in their last two matches.
Senegal and Iraq face off on Friday at BMO Field in a match that feels more like a final test than a typical group-stage finale. France and Norway have already pulled ahead in Group I, leaving Pape Thiaw and Graham Arnold with the same task: win decisively and hope that the standings among the third-place teams go their way. Senegal sits in third place on goal difference, while Iraq is in fourth after two decisive losses. Tension is particularly high around the Senegalese team because expectations were higher. Against strong opponents, the team kept pace at times but failed to control the decisive moments. Iraq, on the other hand, has painfully felt since the start of the tournament just how difficult the leap to this level is. Both teams remain without points, so the match will come down to mental toughness, finishing chances, and defensive discipline.
- Venue: BMO Field, Toronto
- Date and Time: June 26, 2026, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: World Cup (Group Stage – 3)
The betting market clearly favors Senegal, which makes the straight win odds only moderately attractive. However, the match profile strongly suggests Over 2.5 goals, Both Teams to Score: Yes, and Senegal on the Asian Handicap. Senegal’s recent matches have consistently been high-scoring, Ismaïla Sarr has just demonstrated his clinical finishing, and Iraq has struggled to contain stronger attacks.
Senegal Form & Record Check
Senegal’s 2-3 loss to Norway pretty much summed up the tournament so far: dangerous enough to hurt good teams, but too vulnerable once the game turns. Ismaïla Sarr scored twice, and Sadio Mané and Nicolas Jackson were involved in the late surge, but the defensive structure fell apart again after halftime. From an analytical perspective, this mix keeps Senegal in the running, but the situation hardly seems comfortable. Across all competitions, the last five games show why this team is difficult to assess accurately.
Senegal lost 1–3 to France, drew 0–0 with Saudi Arabia, lost 2–3 to the U.S., and beat The Gambia 3–1 before suffering the setback against Norway. The recurring theme isn’t a lack of offensive quality, but rather an inability to keep games under control once spaces open up.
Senegal is likely to continue playing a 4-2-3-1 formation, but the injury report changes the first name on the lineup sheet. With Edouard Mendy sidelined due to knee problems, Yehvann Diouf is the likely replacement in goal. Kalidou Koulibaly and Moussa Niakhaté should stabilize the back line, while Idrissa Gueye and Pape Gueye will likely provide cover behind Sadio Mané and Nicolas Jackson.
Iraq Form & Record Check
Iraq’s most recent World Cup appearance—a 0–3 loss to France—was a sobering reminder of the gap Graham Arnold’s team aims to bridge. The early goal changed the rhythm of the game, and Iraq never generated enough sustained pressure to force the match into troubled waters. The substitutions of Ali Al-Hamadi, Youssef Amyn, and Aimar Sher suggested a search for fresh energy. Their overall form across all competitions offers only limited cause for optimism. Iraq lost 1–4 to Norway and 0–2 to Venezuela, but the 1–1 draw against Spain and the 1–0 victory over Andorra show that the team can play with organization when the pace suits them. The drop in performance after halftime is a cause for concern; recent data shows little offensive output after the break.
Iraq could line up in a 4-1-4-1 formation, with Ahmed Basil Fadhil – 22 expected to start in goal. Since no injuries have been reported, no forced substitutions are necessary. The central defensive pairing is likely to once again consist of Zaid Tahseen – 4 and Akam Hashem – 5, with Amir Al-Ammari – 16 providing cover in midfield and Aymen Hussein – 18 leading the attack.
Senegal vs. Iraq Head-to-Head & Statistics
No current data on head-to-head matchups is available for this game.
