Key Facts
- Level on points: Both clubs have 59 points; Liverpool sits in 4th place due to a better goal difference – a win for Aston Villa would see them leapfrog Liverpool.
- Liverpool struggling: Key absences (Alisson, Salah, Wirtz, Ekitiké) weaken Liverpool’s offense and force manager Jürgen Klopp to improvise.
- Aston Villa’s midfield weakened: The absence of players like Onana and Kamara has cost them stability, evident in recent results against Fulham, Tottenham, and Burnley.
- Head-to-head trend favors Liverpool: Liverpool has won three of the last five meetings; Aston Villa has yet to secure a victory against the Reds during this period.
- Villa’s home record: Both home matches in this head-to-head series ended in draws (3-3 and 2-2), indicating resistance at home despite the overall H2H record.
- Second half as a risk zone: Liverpool has recently conceded goals more frequently after the break; Villa’s defense has also been vulnerable in the last three games—a late goal seems likely.
Aston Villa heads into this Friday night with two key objectives: the chase for a top-four Premier League spot and next week’s Europa League final against Freiburg in Istanbul. Unai Emery’s team hosts Liverpool on Matchday 37 at Villa Park; both clubs are on 59 points, with Liverpool sitting in fourth place on goal difference.
The situation at Liverpool is anything but relaxed, even though reports suggest that Arne Slot continues to enjoy the club’s confidence despite a difficult season. Liverpool won the last meeting 2-0 in November 2025, which fits a recent pattern: Villa consistently fails to convert good spells of play into results against this opponent.
- Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham
- Date and Time: May 15, 2026, 9:00 PM
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 37)
The bookmakers are leaning slightly toward Liverpool, but the question of true value is less clear-cut. Villa or a draw, priced at around 1.7, is supported by the fact that Liverpool are traveling without Alisson, Mohamed Salah, and Hugo Ekitiké, while Villa still have a clear shot at the Champions League.
Aston Villa Form & Record Check
Villa’s 2-2 draw at Burnley was a perfect reflection of their current inconsistency.
Ross Barkley and Ollie Watkins put Emery’s team in a winning position, John McGinn was involved in the first goal, but in the end, they conceded twice against a team that had already been relegated. In the league standings, it felt more like a missed opportunity than a point gained.
The overall picture is unsettling, but not hopeless. Across all competitions, Villa responded to a 1-0 first-leg loss at Nottingham Forest with a commanding 4-0 home win, advancing to the Europa League final. But the Premier League defeats against Fulham and Tottenham, as well as the draw at Burnley, highlight just how much the absences of Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara in midfield are weighing on the team.
With Bournemouth four points behind, Villa still has some breathing room, but the head-to-head record against Liverpool at the same point total is the more relevant factor. Emery can continue to rely on Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins, and the fullbacks for vertical pressure, but recent league matches have lacked the stability that characterized the team’s stronger run earlier in the season.
Unai Emery’s expected starting lineup for Aston Villa is a 4-2-3-1, with Emiliano Martínez – 23 in goal and Ezri Konsa – 4 alongside Pau Torres – 14 in central defense. With Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara out, Douglas Luiz – 21 and Youri Tielemans – 8 are likely to take their places in midfield. Alysson is also out, so Leon Bailey – 31, Morgan Rogers – 27, and Ollie Watkins – 11 could form the attack.
Liverpool Form & Record Check
Liverpool’s 1-1 draw against Chelsea at Anfield has reinforced the feeling that their league position is better than the team’s current form. Ryan Gravenberch scored early off an assist from Rio Ngumoha, but Chelsea equalized before halftime, and the frustration in the stands was palpable. It wasn’t a collapse, but the debate surrounding Klopp’s starting lineup is far from over.
In the league, Liverpool has combined solid wins against Everton and Crystal Palace with a 3-2 victory at Manchester United and the draw against Chelsea. Across all competitions, they also suffered a 0-2 defeat in the Champions League against Paris Saint-Germain. Goals are still being scored, but the repeated goals conceded after halftime explain why the matches so often drag on into the closing stages.
The personnel situation makes the away trip even more complicated. Alisson is out with a thigh injury, and Mohamed Salah, Florian Wirtz, Conor Bradley, Wataru Endo, Giovanni Leoni, and Hugo Ekitiké are also unavailable. Alexander Isak’s substitution against Chelsea was a positive sign, but Slot will likely still have to field a somewhat improvised attacking lineup at Villa Park.
Liverpool is expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, though this is still a prediction and not a confirmed lineup. With Alisson out due to a thigh injury, Giorgi Mamardashvili – 25 should start in goal. The likely backbone will be formed by Ibrahima Konaté – 5 and Virgil van Dijk – 4 in front of Ryan Gravenberch – 38 and Alexis Mac Allister – 10.
Conor Bradley’s knee surgery suggests that Jeremie Frimpong – 30 will start at right back, while Giovanni Leoni’s torn ACL keeps the center-back duo together. Wataru Endo’s ankle injury leaves the double pivot to Ryan Gravenberch – 38 and Alexis Mac Allister – 10, a pair with cleaner ball movement but less defensive coverage.
Further up the field, Mohamed Salah’s thigh issue, Florian Wirtz’s stomach problems, and Hugo Ekitiké’s Achilles tendon tear should clear starting spots for Federico Chiesa – 14, Dominik Szoboszlai – 8, Rio Ngumoha – 73, and Alexander Isak – 9. It’s quite possible that Arne Slot will initially leave Cody Gakpo – 18 on the bench as the primary attacking option.
Aston Villa – Liverpool Head-to-Head & Stats
The most recent head-to-head record clearly favors Liverpool. In the last five meetings, the Reds emerged victorious three times, with two matches ending in draws, while Aston Villa is still waiting for a win during this period. Most recently, Liverpool won 2-0 at home in November 2025; prior to that, there was a 2-2 draw at Villa Park in 2025 and another 2-0 victory for Liverpool in 2024.
This pattern isn’t limited to just the results. Liverpool scored in all five matches and, according to available data, scored at least one goal in each half every time. Aston Villa conceded a goal in each of these matchups, and all five games saw more than 1.5 goals scored, even though only two of them were truly high-scoring.
A word of caution regarding placing too much weight on history is certainly warranted: The two away games at Villa Park both ended in draws, 3-3 in 2024 and 2-2 in 2025. The possibility of home resistance is therefore not entirely off the table, but Liverpool’s habit of starting strongly against Aston Villa remains a tactically relevant warning.
