Key Facts
- AC Milan sits in third place with 70 points, level on points with Roma; a win could be decisive in the race for the Champions League.
- After losses to Sassuolo and Atalanta, Milan stabilized against Genoa, where Nkunku scored on a penalty kick and Athekame scored off a Pulisic assist.
- Cagliari, already safe in 16th place, arrives with less pressure after Esposito and Mina secured a 2-1 comeback win against Torino.
- Cagliari’s options are limited due to the absences of Idrissi, Liteta, Felici, and Pavoletti; Pavoletti and Felici, in particular, weaken the team’s attacking depth.
- The head-to-head record favors AC Milan with three wins and two draws; nevertheless, Cagliari has scored in four of the five meetings.
- The odds of 2.55 point to a halftime draw, backed by statistics: Cagliari has drawn four consecutive first halves and never trailed in those matches.
AC Milan is pulling out all the stops ahead of this Sunday evening’s match at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: Massimiliano Allegri is taking the squad to a training camp starting Friday to ensure their focus doesn’t waver ahead of the Serie A season finale against Cagliari. A Champions League spot and potentially major club decisions hang in the balance for this match. AC Milan sits in third place with 70 points, level on points with AS Roma, while Fabio Pisacane’s Cagliari is safely secured in 16th place following a late surge. The contrast in form fits this situation: AC Milan stabilized after losses to Atalanta and Sassuolo with a 2-1 win at Genoa, while Cagliari secured their survival with a 2-1 comeback victory against Torino.
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
- Date and time: May 24, 2026, 8:45 PM
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 38)
Since the betting market clearly favors AC Milan, the value lies more in close matches than in simply betting on AC Milan to win. Cagliari has drawn in four consecutive first halves, while AC Milan’s opening phases have often remained controlled and manageable. The return of Rafael Leão, Pervis Estupiñán, and Alexis Saelemaekers should help AC Milan gain more control of the space. With Leonardo Pavoletti, Mattia Felici, and Joseph Liteta out, Under 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score: No seem like solid bets.
AC Milan Form & Record Check
At Marassi, AC Milan did what the standings demanded rather than delivering a truly polished performance. Christopher Nkunku drew the penalty and converted it to give them the lead in the 2-1 win over Genoa, after which Zachary Athekame added the decisive second goal off an assist from Christian Pulisic.
The late goal made for a nervous finish, but after the losses to Sassuolo and Atalanta, the result mattered more than the quality of play. AC Milan’s last five league games have been a mixed bag: two wins, one draw, and two losses. The clean sheets against Hellas Verona and Juventus contrast with the slip-ups against Sassuolo and Atalanta. Massimiliano Allegri has Rafael Leão, Pervis Estupiñán, and Alexis Saelemaekers back, while Christopher Nkunku is likely to move into the starting lineup, and Santiago Gimenez’s difficult spell doesn’t make selecting the attack any easier.
AC Milan could line up in Massimiliano Allegri’s expected 3-5-2 formation, with Mike Maignan, No. 16, in goal behind Fikayo Tomori, No. 23, Matteo Gabbia, No. 46, and Strahinja Pavlović, No. 31. With no injuries reported, Youssouf Fofana, No. 19, and Adrien Rabiot, No. 12, should anchor the midfield, while Santiago Gimenez, No. 7, and Christopher Nkunku, No. 18, are expected to lead the attack.
Cagliari Form & Record Check
Cagliari arrives with noticeably less pressure. Fabio Pisacane’s team secured their survival with a 2-1 comeback against Torino, responding quickly through Sebastiano Esposito before Yerry Mina completely turned the game around before halftime. Elia Caprile held on to the lead in the closing stages, a fitting image for a season that didn’t go smoothly but was managed well enough to avoid panic on the final matchday. The broader league record looks uneven, but it’s respectable for a team in 16th place with 40 points: Cagliari lost 0-2 to Udinese, drew 0-0 in Bologna, defeated Atalanta 3-2, and had previously been clearly outclassed by Inter in a 3-0 loss. Fabio Pisacane, who was just awarded the Briglia d’oro, has given his team solid starts, but the absences of Riyad Idrissi, Joseph Liteta, Mattia Felici, and Leonardo Pavoletti limit his options.
Cagliari is expected to line up in a 4-3-2-1 formation, though this is a prediction and not a confirmed starting lineup. Elia Caprile, number 1, is likely to start in goal, with Gabriele Zappa, number 28, Yerry Mina, number 26, Alberto Dossena, number 22, and Adam Obert, number 33, are likely to form the back four. The notable absences are Riyad Idrissi and Mattia Felici with torn cruciate ligaments, Joseph Liteta with a thigh injury, and Leonardo Pavoletti following arthroscopic surgery. As a result, Michel Adopo, number 8, Gianluca Gaetano, number 10, and Alessandro Deiola, number 14, are likely to remain in midfield, while Sebastiano Esposito, number 94, will support Paul Mendy, number 31, up front.
AC Milan – Cagliari Head-to-Head & Statistics
The recent head-to-head record favors AC Milan: three wins and two draws in the last five matches. The most recent match was in January 2026, when AC Milan won 1-0 on the road. Prior to that, the two teams drew 1-1 in 2025 and 3-3 in 2024, while AC Milan won both home matches in 2024 by scores of 5-1 and 4-1, the latter in the Coppa Italia. However, the pattern isn’t quite that one-sided. AC Milan has scored in all five matches and found the net after halftime in each, but Cagliari also scored in four of the five games. This explains to some extent why four of these matchups went Over 1.5 goals, even though the circumstances on the final matchday might suggest a more controlled performance from AC Milan than some older results might imply.
