Key Facts
- Leeds is on the verge of avoiding relegation; a win against already-relegated Burnley would practically seal their survival.
- Leeds has been strong out of the gate: leading at halftime in their last three league games — an early lead against a passive Burnley is likely.
- Burnley has defensive absences (Cullen, Beyer, Roberts) and is winless in five games; defensive vulnerability is high.
- H2H shows slow starts: under 1.5 goals at halftime in the last five meetings — Leeds must remain patient despite their superiority.
- Leeds has scored in four consecutive competitive matches and comes in with momentum from recent wins (3-0 vs. Wolves, 2-1 vs. Man United); Burnley has lost four of its last five.
- Leeds is without Gudmundsson and Gruev, while Bijol and Okafor are injured — slight personnel risks despite being clear favorites.
Leeds returns from Wembley with little time to dwell on their 1-0 FA Cup semifinal exit against Chelsea, which is actually a good thing. Daniel Farke’s team hosts Burnley in the Premier League on Friday night, and a win at Elland Road would all but seal their survival. The visitors arrive having already been relegated, with Scott Parker once again facing criticism. The contrast in current form is clear: Leeds have secured two wins and a draw from their last three Premier League matches and were competitive even in their Cup exit at Chelsea.
- Venue: Elland Road, Leeds
- Date and time: May 1, 2026, 9:00 PM
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 35)
The betting market already sees Leeds as clear home favorites, so the real appeal lies in the details. Farke’s team went into halftime with a lead in three consecutive matches, Burnley has played passive first halves for weeks, and Leeds’ recent games have been open enough to see more than 2.5 goals. On top of that: Burnley has been relegated and is traveling without Josh Cullen, Jordan Beyer, and Connor Roberts.
Leeds Form & Record Check
Leeds lost 1-0 to Chelsea in the FA Cup semifinal, but the result did not do either team justice. After Daniel Farke’s halftime adjustments, the hosts improved noticeably, and the real problem was a lack of determination in the penalty area, not a general drop in performance. The outlook for Friday is clouded primarily by injuries, as Gabriel Gudmundsson is out and Noah Okafor and Jaka Bijol are carrying knocks.
In the league, Leeds have recently looked much more stable than their league position suggests. The win against Wolves was convincing, the 2-1 victory at Manchester United showed mental strength, and the 2-2 draw at Bournemouth kept their run alive.
Now they are just two points behind Newcastle, but also only one ahead of Nottingham Forest. So the strong performances of recent weeks still need the appropriate reward in the standings.
Predicted lineup: Leeds is likely to line up in Daniel Farke’s usual 4-3-2-1 formation, with Lucas Perri – 1 in goal for this projected lineup. James Justin – 24, Jaka Bijol – 15, and Pascal Struijk – 5 would likely form the back three, while Jayden Bogle – 2 and Sam Byram – 25 provide width.
The key uncertainty lies in the squad. Gabriel Gudmundsson is out, and Ilia Gruev remains unavailable, so Ethan Ampadu – 4 and Ao Tanaka – 22 appear set to start as the midfield duo. Jaka Bijol – 15 is only a possible starter following a hip flexor issue, with Joe Rodon ready to step in if needed. Brenden Aaronson – 11 and Wilfried Gnonto – 29 would then play behind Dominic Calvert-Lewin – 9.
Burnley Form & Record Check
Burnley’s last outing was symptomatic of much of the season. The 0-1 home loss to Manchester City, conceding a goal as early as the fifth minute, followed by long stretches where they were more in survival mode than actually playing, even though Martin Dúbravka kept the score somewhat in check. Relegation was sealed that evening, and since then, the debate over Scott Parker’s future has grown louder—which is rarely a good sign ahead of a difficult away trip.
A look at their recent league matches doesn’t make things any better. Burnley has picked up just one point from their last five games, losing to Fulham, Brighton, Nottingham Forest, and Manchester City, and now trail Tottenham by a whopping fourteen points. Without Josh Cullen in midfield and with Jordan Beyer and Connor Roberts also missing, the team looked vulnerable as soon as the opposition picked up the pace.
Burnley is likely to line up in a 5-4-1 formation, with Martin Dúbravka – 1 in goal behind Kyle Walker – 2, Joe Worrall – 4, Hjalmar Ekdal – 18, Maxime Estève – 5, and Quilindschy Hartman – 3. It is a compact, defense-oriented lineup, with James Ward-Prowse – 20 and Josh Laurent – 29 in the center, while Zian Flemming – 19 is expected to lead the attack.
The biggest issue with this projected lineup is availability. Jordan Beyer, Connor Roberts, and Josh Cullen are out, which explains the likely reliance on Hjalmar Ekdal – 18 and Maxime Estève – 5 in defense. Hannibal, Axel Tuanzebe, and Zeki Amdouni are also question marks in terms of fitness, which is why this should be viewed as a possible lineup rather than a confirmed formation.
Leeds – Burnley Head-to-Head & Stats
The most recent head-to-head record favors Burnley. The Lancashire side won 2-0 at home in October 2025, drew 0-0 in January 2025, and picked up three more points with a 1-0 victory at Elland Road in September 2024. Leeds last beat Burnley in 2022, which is why, despite the hosts’ current better form, a certain element of uncertainty remains in this matchup.
The most noticeable pattern is the slow start. In all five of their most recent head-to-head matches, the game remained under 1.5 goals by halftime, with four of those also finishing under 2.5 goals overall. Burnley has scored in each of their last three meetings against Leeds, while Leeds has conceded at least one goal in each of those same three games. This suggests that the hosts will need patience before their dominance translates into a result.
