Key Facts
- Everton is tenth with 32 points, Leeds sixteenth with 25; with only a few points separating them from above and below, both teams have little room for maneuver.
- Moyes’ Everton remain difficult to beat, but have scored in each of their last five games and start slowly; every first half has remained under 1.5 goals.
- Leeds seem more stable since switching to a back three, find their feet better after the break and have scored second-half goals in four of five games.
- Everton are missing important creative midfield options in Grealish (fatigue fracture), Dewsbury-Hall, and Alcaraz; Leeds are without James, and Gudmundsson is a fitness doubt.
- The head-to-head matches are usually close: three of the last five ended 1-0, four of five had fewer than 3.5 goals, and Leeds won the last one 1-0.
- The market is almost split (Everton 2.5; Leeds 2.9), but the statistics suggest patience is the key: 80% of Everton’s games have had under 2.5 goals, while Leeds often have low-scoring first halves.
Leeds’ narrow 1-0 away win in August still lingers in Everton’s minds, because these matches are often decided by nuances rather than wild twists and turns. On Monday evening, Leeds United comes to Hill Dickinson Stadium for the 23rd round of the Premier League, and both David Moyes and Daniel Farke sense an opportunity. For Everton, it’s also about providing some kind of response – they want to settle the score at home.
Interestingly, the market is practically split: Everton are at 2.5, the draw is at 3.3 and Leeds are at 2.9. The value lies with Farke’s in-form visitors, especially as Grealish is out and the absences of Dewsbury-Hall and Alcaraz mean they continue to lack creativity. Leeds have looked sharper since the tactical change, Darlow’s calmness helps, and Gudmundsson’s doubts could limit their width.
Everton Form & Record Check
Everton’s last five appearances in the league and cup paint a familiar picture of Moyes’ side, hard to beat but rarely truly fluid in their play. They won 2-0 at Nottingham Forest with control and maturity, then fell apart in a 4-2 home defeat to Brentford as their defending in the box failed. A 1-1 draw with Wolves felt like two points dropped, and their FA Cup exit to Sunderland on penalties after a 1-1 draw seemed lackluster. The reaction in the league has been sharp, most recently the 1-0 win at Aston Villa, decided by Barry and secured with real discipline. Everton have scored in each of their last five games, but the games are slow to start, with every first half remaining under 1.5 goals, and most of the action happening after the break, which now seems like a risk because Grealish is out with a stress fracture in his foot. Everton’s stable performance puts them in 10th place with 32 points, just one point behind Sunderland and one ahead of Fulham, so the momentum is fragile. Moyes is getting value out of a tight group, and Garner’s new contract underlines that, but the defeat to Brentford remains a warning sign that if concentration slips, the defense can fall apart. With Dewsbury-Hall and Alcaraz out and Lazio inquiring about Iroegbunam, depth in midfield seems particularly crucial.
Moyes is likely to stick with a 4-2-3-1, with Pickford behind Patterson, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, and Mykolenko. The double six of Garner and Gueye should dictate the tempo and secure the transitions so that McNeil and Ndiaye can attack early, while Röhl floats between the lines. Barry is the most likely target up front, especially for direct balls and second actions. Grealish’s stress fracture, plus the absences of Dewsbury Hall and Alcaraz, make this attacking midfield trio the most reliable part of this prediction. If Moyes prefers a more physical option in the box, Beto could come into the equation for Barry, or Röhl could drop deeper and Iroegbunam could be added for fresh legs.
Overall, a pragmatic block and strong use of wing play can be expected.
Leeds Form & Record Check
Leeds travel to this away game in 16th place in the table with 25 points, two points behind Bournemouth and three ahead of Nottingham Forest, so there is little room for maneuver. Their form in the league has stabilized, even if it hasn’t been brilliant: the 1-0 win against Fulham was deserved, the 0-0 draw at Liverpool was disciplined, the 1-1 draw against Manchester United seemed fair, and the 4-3 defeat at Newcastle exposed their familiar vulnerability. Their performances follow a clear pattern, with the first halves often tight, with less than 1.5 goals in the first half in four of their last five games, after which Leeds usually find their feet and score in the second half in four out of five games. The win against Fulham, sealed by Nmecha after a pass from Ampadu, fit this pattern. Aaronson’s finishing quality has raised the potential, and Calvert-Lewin remains the reference point in attack. Defensively, the game at Newcastle showed how quickly Leeds can lose control when the pressing is bypassed, especially in moments of transition. Farque’s personnel decisions underscore this uncertainty, with Darlow recently preferred in goal because he is considered the calmer hand. James remains sidelined with a thigh problem, and Gudmundsson is a fitness concern, leaving the squad looking thin beyond the strongest eleven. Interestingly, January signings could become just as important as tactical adjustments in the coming weeks.
Leeds are likely to stick with the back three system that has stabilized them recently, with Darlow expected to retain his place in goal. In this predicted formation, Rodon and Struijk anchor the center-back pairing, with Justin taking on the role of the additional stopper. Bogle and Byram would provide width as wingbacks, while Ampadu and Gruev lay the groundwork for Aaronson to press and link up play. James is out with a thigh injury, so the front pairing could once again rely on Calvert Lewin’s finishing and Okafor’s movement rather than a more traditional wide option. Gudmundsson’s fitness is also in doubt, making Byram the likely choice on the left, with Justin as another possible replacement. As always, this is a projection, not a confirmed starting lineup.
Everton – Leeds Head-to-Head & Statistics
The last five meetings slightly favor Everton, with 2 wins to 1 and 2 draws. The most recent, in August 2025, went to Leeds, a 1-0 win that continued the series of close decisions between these teams. In the five games, Everton scored 7 goals and Leeds 4, with three games ending 1-0 in both directions. Goals were mostly kept tight, with four of the five games ending with under 3.5 total goals, and only the 2021 draw, 2-2, exceeding that mark. It is noteworthy that three consecutive encounters between 2021 and 2022 produced over 1.5 goals, but overall the games appear more controlled than offensive spectacles, and the second halves are often less open. There is one clear trend that should be highlighted: from 2021 to 2023, Everton scored in four consecutive head-to-head matches, with Leeds conceding in all four, before this streak was ended by the 1-0 win in August 2025.
Applying trends to this fixture is never perfect, but with Everton without Dewsbury-Hall and Alcaraz and Leeds without James, creativity in open play could once again be in short supply.
