A battle for breathing room at the top and breathing room at the bottom when Nottingham Forest hosts Everton at City Ground on Tuesday evening, this 19th matchday of the Premier League looks unusually difficult for both sides. Sean Dyche’s Forest are in 17th place with 18 points, just five points above the relegation zone and back in the thick of the relegation battle after two consecutive league defeats. On the other hand, David Moyes’ Everton are 12th in the table with 25 points, trying to keep up with the group of teams forming behind them in the race for European places while maintaining the calm of recent weeks.
The hosts have lost their last two league games, but put in a decent performance in their 2-1 win over Manchester City. Everton, on the other hand, are currently lacking goals and have gone three competitive games without a win since their 0-0 draw at Burnley, desperately searching for a breakthrough in the final third.
Recent history suggests a tight, tactical battle rather than a goal fest. Eight of the last ten meetings between the sides have ended with fewer than three goals, and only one of the last six games has seen both teams score. This fits in with the pragmatic approaches of Dyche and Moyes. With Wood out and Jesus as Forest’s new attacking spearhead, plus an Everton side stuck on 18 league goals, a single moment could decide this game, which both teams desperately need for different reasons.
- Venue: City Ground, Nottingham
- Date and time: 12/30/2025, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 19)
Dyche’s team has put Fulham and Manchester City under a lot of pressure recently, winning 3-0 at Goodison Park, while Moyes’ Everton has failed to score in its last two games and lacks Iliman Ndiaye’s spark in the final third. That argues in favor of Nottingham Forest to win or, to be on the safe side, Draw No Bet, as well as Under 2.5 goals, especially since Igor Jesus works hard and creates space, but tends to toil rather than finish clinically.
Nottingham Form & Record Check
Forest go into the game against Everton in better form than the bare statistics suggest. Since Dyche’s arrival in October, their overall performance has improved, but they are 17th in the table with 18 points, two behind Leeds and five ahead of the team directly below them. Four defeats in their last six Premier League games show how fine the line is between a genuine turnaround and another nerve-wracking battle to avoid relegation.
Across all competitions, the last five games tell the story of these fluctuations. A heavy 3-0 defeat at Everton exposed defensive vulnerabilities before an impressive 3-0 win over Tottenham underlined Dyche’s focus on organization and intensity. They then scraped a 2-1 win at Utrecht, offered little going forward in a lackluster 1-0 defeat at Fulham, and were finally beaten 2-1 by Manchester City despite sustained aggression and Hutchinson’s equalizer.
The numbers back up this picture of volatility. There have been no draws in Forest’s last five games, 80% of those games have ended with over 2.5 goals, and they have conceded in four of those encounters. The first halves tend to be tighter, often with fewer than two goals, but the games open up after the break, which suits a team that is not yet consistently implementing Dyche’s structure over the full 90 minutes. Offensively, the team has improved since Jesus replaced the injured Wood as the target man, with his running creating space for Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi, and Hutchinson. Anderson continues to dominate the midfield, but the absences of Sangaré, Boly, Ndoye, and Yates reduce Forest’s margin for error. In the end, it will likely be consistency rather than pure quality that determines whether this small resurgence turns into something more sustainable.
Forest are expected to stick with the 4-2-3-1 formation we saw against Everton, with Victor in goal, Savona, Milenković, Murillo, and Williams in a back four. Luiz and Domínguez will provide cover in the center, Gibbs-White is expected to play again as the central creative player between Hudson-Odoi and Bakwa, while Jesus will lead the line after his combative performance against Manchester City.
Significant absences shape this prediction. Sangaré and Boly are away on international duty, Aina is unavailable for the Premier League, and Yates and Ndoye are out injured. Up front, Wood is out after knee surgery and Awoniyi is also injured, so Jesus is our predicted starter. Kalimuendo, Anderson, and McAtee are the main alternatives from the bench. This is a possible lineup and not a confirmation.
Everton Form & Record Check
Everton travel to City Ground in good, albeit unspectacular, form. They sit 12th in the table with 25 points and a goal difference of minus two, level on points with Tottenham and just ahead of Brighton, indicating a tightly packed mid-table. Long-term projections already see them in contention for a place in the Europa Conference League, a remarkable turnaround from last season’s relegation fears.
Their recent run of five league games has been mixed. A controlled 1-0 away win at Bournemouth and a convincing 3-0 home win against Nottingham Forest underlined Everton’s ability to manage games when they score the first goal. That progress stalled with a 2-0 defeat at Chelsea and a narrow 1-0 home defeat to Arsenal, before the 0-0 draw at Burnley once again exposed their familiar problems in front of goal.
Statistically, their league games have become tighter. Four of the last five have ended with under 2.5 goals in total, and during that period they have not conceded after the break, with no more than one goal scored in the second half in any of those games. That suggests a disciplined defensive setup in front of Jordan Pickford, but it can also signal a more conservative approach once they find themselves chasing a deficit.
The difficulties clearly lie in attack. Moyes’ team has scored only 18 league goals, and with Iliman Ndiaye and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall both out, he is without his joint leading scorers. Beto and Thierno Barry have only one league goal each, so the responsibility for creativity lies primarily with Jack Grealish, Dwight McNeil, and James Garner. The club has already indicated that it intends to reassess its striker options in January.
Injuries and international call-ups further exacerbate the situation. Jarrad Branthwaite and Séamus Coleman are out, Idrissa Gueye and Ndiaye are with their national teams, and Dewsbury-Hall is also sidelined. This combination robs the team of leadership in the center and energy in midfield, so it’s hardly surprising that Everton has identified a right-back and additional attacking support as priorities for the January window.
Everton are expected to stick with their familiar 4-2-3-1 formation under Moyes, with our predicted line-up seeing Pickford in goal, Patterson, Tarkowski, Keane and Mykolenko in front of him in defense.
Iroegbunam and Garner would anchor the midfield, with Dibling and McNeil pulling in from the wings and Alcaraz operating between the lines, behind Beto as the central striker, a compact structure that fits with the measured, low-risk approach we have seen frequently this season.
The injuries to Branthwaite and Coleman, plus the AFCON absences of Gueye and Ndiaye and the loss of Dewsbury-Hall, mean that this predicted lineup relies heavily on Garner and Iroegbunam for control rather than dynamism. With Ndiaye missing and McNeil lacking match practice, the wings could look more technical than explosive, while Beto is expected to continue as the lone striker with Barry providing pace from the bench.
Nottingham – Everton Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the last five meetings between 2023 and December 2025, Everton clearly had the upper hand, with four wins and one defeat, while Nottingham Forest recorded their only victory in December 2024. There were no draws in this series, with every game producing a winner, and Everton outscored Forest 7-2 during this period. All five encounters were regular Premier League season fixtures.
Everton were particularly effective away from home, winning both visits to City Ground in 2023 and April 2025 by a 1-0 scoreline. At Goodison Park, the record stands at two Everton wins and one Forest win, including the Toffees’ 3-0 victory in December 2025. Clean sheets were often decisive, with the winning team preventing their opponents from scoring in each of these games.
The scoring pattern clearly points to close contests rather than offensive spectacles. All five games ended with fewer than four total goals, with four of them even remaining under 2.5 goals. Forest failed to score in four of these encounters, underscoring Everton’s defensive control in this matchup. Both sides were particularly cautious after the break, with no more than one goal scored in the second half of each of these games.
This recent history gives Moyes’ Everton a psychological advantage going into the late December 2025 clash at City Ground, especially with the 3-0 win in December 2025 still fresh in the minds of the players. Dyche’s Forest have yet to pick up a point at home against Everton during this period, so the focus is likely to be on disrupting Everton’s rhythm and finally turning these consistently low-scoring encounters in their favor.
