West Ham United, threatened with relegation, faces Brighton, which is struggling to find form, at London Stadium, and that is precisely what makes this Tuesday evening so explosive. Nuno Espírito Santo’s team is in 18th place in the table, with 13 points and a goal difference of minus 17, without a win in seven games, and with his position openly questioned, this second of two consecutive home games is seen by many fans as pivotal for the season. Brighton travel in 13th place in the table, with just two points from their last five league games, but the bookmakers still see Fabian Hürzeler’s team as clear favorites against a struggling West Ham.
- Venue: London Stadium, London
- Date and time: 12/30/2025, 8:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 19)
Instead of chasing an away win, a double chance on Brighton offers protection in case Nuno’s relegation-threatened team falls apart again, while West Ham’s home urgency through Bowen and Paquetá, as well as Brighton’s recent chances at Arsenal and beyond, make bets on both teams to score: Yes and a second half with late goals seem like logical value bets.
West Ham Form & Record Check
West Ham goes into this home game against Brighton in significantly poor league form. The Londoners are 18th in the table with 13 points, five behind Nottingham Forest and just one ahead of Burnley, a picture that illustrates how close they are to being left behind in the battle for survival, especially as the first half of the season has fallen well short of expectations after heavy summer spending and the targeted mid-table position. Under Nuno Espírito Santo, they have won only two of thirteen games in all competitions and are now without a win in seven league games, a late goal from Jimenez leading to a 0-1 home defeat to Fulham, a 0-3 loss at Manchester City and a narrow 2-3 defeat to Aston Villa, with draws at Brighton and Manchester United providing the only relief. Statistically, the trends are clear: West Ham have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five league games and have conceded goals in the second half of every game, suggesting fitness issues or structural deficiencies once games open up. In four of their last five games, they have conceded at least two goals without being able to get on top. In attack, the plan still seems unclear. According to reports, Nuno Espírito Santo has often refrained from starting with a recognized center forward, even though Bowen poses a central threat and Summerville comes in from the wings. Füllkrug is set to move to Milan on loan, and Wilson’s availability and contract situation make it difficult to use him, leaving the offensive line without a stable target. Defensively, the new axis has also yet to find stability. Kilman and Todibo arrived for considerable transfer fees, while Magassa and Diouf bring youth, yet the goal difference of minus 17 underscores the continuing vulnerability, especially with Fabianski injured and Diouf away on international duty, further thinning the resources. With Optas model predicting relegation and reports that the board is considering another change, Nuno’s margin for error is extremely small.
West Ham are likely to stick with their tried and tested 4-2-3-1 formation, with Areola behind a back four of Walker-Peters, Todibo, Kilman, and Scarles. Magassa and Fernandes are expected to anchor the midfield, with Paquetá taking the central role, Summerville and Bowen coming in from the wings, and Wilson possibly starting as a true center forward. Fabianski remains sidelined with back problems and Diouf is away on international duty, so this remains a predicted, unconfirmed lineup.
Brighton Form & Record Check
Brighton comes to London in poor form in the league. The south coast side have picked up two points from their last five Premier League games, a 1-1 home draw with West Ham and a 0-0 draw with Sunderland, while losing 3-4 to Aston Villa, 0-2 at Liverpool, and 1-2 at Arsenal, a run that has seen them drop from ninth place at Christmas to 13th, sandwiched between Everton and Newcastle, both a point behind. These results reflect underlying trends: in these five league games, Brighton have won neither the first nor the second half and have conceded goals in four of them, mostly after halftime, meaning that control often slips late on. The Alternative Premier League Table notes that they have conceded more than 1.2 expected goals in 12 of 17 games, so the defense regularly allows chances. In attack, the numbers underscore how dependent Brighton continues to be on Welbeck. When he started five league games earlier in the season, they remained unbeaten and collected 11 points, with seven goals from him in seven appearances. but a recent back problem coincided with a goal drought that included goalless draws at Liverpool and at home to Sunderland, and it could be that Hürzeler is currently asking too much of his younger strikers. Defensively, there are at least signs of progress, with the makeshift pairing of Coppola and Boscagli, with Verbruggen behind them, delivering a commanding clean sheet against Sunderland, and Dunk has just extended his contract after reaching 500 appearances for the club, which stabilizes the leadership structure. but Arsenal’s ability to push Brighton back for 45 minutes before later pressure came via Gruda, De Cuyper, and Minteh summed up the picture of a team still searching for consistent balance. Expectations remain higher than the table suggests, with Opta projections recently placing Brighton in a group with Brentford and Everton fighting for European places rather than in a relegation battle, but at the moment their Premier League form is mediocre at best, with no wins in five games and regularly conceding goals after the break. If they fail to capitalize on the build-up play that Hürzeler demands, their European ambitions will remain theoretical.
Brighton are expected to stick with Fabian Hürzeler’s now familiar back three, so Verbruggen will be behind a trio of Coppola, van Hecke, and Dunk, while Kadioglu and De Cuyper will provide width in a 3-4-2-1. Wieffer and Hinshelwood should cover the midfield, while Gruda and Mitoma will play behind Rutter, who I still expect to start as the center forward. This predicted starting lineup also takes into account the absences: Webster is still out long-term with a cruciate ligament rupture, and Brighton are still missing Tzimas, Baleba, and March, so there is little room for rotation in these areas, while Welbeck is fit again but, given his recent back problems and Hürzeler’s caution in terms of his workload, is likely to be held back as a substitute option, as is Minteh.
West Ham – Brighton Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
In the last five encounters, this head-to-head matchup has been remarkably even, with each team winning one game and the remaining three games ending in draws, meaning that both have earned six points from this mini-series. West Ham has a narrow 7-6 lead in goals, but this is only a marginal advantage and not a real dominance, especially since the most recent game in December 2025 ended 1-1. In April 2025, Brighton finally prevailed in a high-scoring home game with a narrow 3-2 victory, following two close draws in 2024. only the goalless encounter in 2024 produced fewer than two goals in total. Previously, West Ham had won 3-1 away in 2023, and three of the last four games ended in draws, showing that the fixture has become much more evenly balanced compared to that earlier West Ham success. Tactically, it is particularly noticeable how little happens before halftime. In all five of the most recent encounters, the first halves had at most one goal, a series of rather sluggish opening phases in which both teams played more cautiously and only opened up when the game picked up speed. After the break, the picture changes. In four of the five games, at least two goals were scored in the second half, and in terms of results, these second halves were also evenly matched. West Ham did not lose this period in any of the five games, while Brighton did not win in any second half, with the majority ending in draws. In home games, West Ham were unable to convert parity into wins, with two draws in 2024, while the only decisive results in this period both came in Brighton, with one win each for the teams.
