With ten wins in a row and a seven-point lead over Chelsea, Aston Villa travels to Stamford Bridge on Saturday with momentum on its side, where the third-placed team will face the fourth-placed team in the table. With just one Premier League defeat since October, Chelsea are on track to achieve their Champions League ambitions, but the many draws show that Maresca’s project has not yet fully taken hold. Villa’s run of ten wins in all competitions seems almost unreal and has seen them close the gap on Chelsea to seven points. The last league meeting in February ended 2-1 to the home side at Villa Park, a reminder that this rivalry can swing either way, even after Chelsea’s 3-0 home win in December 2024. Chelsea are relying heavily on in-form leaders James and Caicedo and benefiting from the return of Delap and Estêvão, while Villa are riding high on Rogers’ breakthrough season.
- Venue: Stamford Bridge, London
- Date and time: December 27, 2025, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: Premier League (Matchday 18)
Double chance on Aston Villa, the away win is around 4.0, and the market for Both Teams to Score: Yes seems obvious. Emery’s team is coming off ten straight wins, Rogers is one of the league’s form players, while James and Caicedo, also praised in various mid-season lists, are carrying the offense at Chelsea, which still looks vulnerable defensively. Overall, there are many indications that there will be chances on both sides and that Villa can leave London with at least one point or even a reward in the form of a win.
Chelsea form & record check
For Chelsea, this home game is also a test of whether their quiet upward trend will continue. The Blues go into the match in 4th place in the table with 29 points, seven points behind third-placed Aston Villa, while Liverpool are right behind them on the same number of points. Their only Premier League defeat since October came in the game that James missed, which fuels the impression that Maresca’s structure is increasingly coming together, even if the gaps around the top four remain extremely narrow. The last three league appearances underscore both progress and fragility. A tired 0-0 draw at Bournemouth left questions about their attacking prowess. The 2-0 home win against Everton looked much more convincing. Chelsea started poorly in Newcastle, falling two goals behind early on, but then fought back to a 2-2 draw, thanks to a free kick from James and a much stronger second half. This mixed picture is also evident in the cup and in Europe. A 3-1 win at Cardiff in the League Cup quarterfinals showed a much more ruthless approach and maintains the momentum towards the semi-final against Arsenal. In contrast, the 2-1 defeat at Atalanta in the Champions League group stage suggested that control in difficult away games remains fragile and that game management can falter under pressure. Individually, James, ranked tenth, and Caicedo, ranked seventh, stand out in a season-long assessment of Premier League performers, and their interplay in midfield gives Chelsea a clearly recognizable identity. Up front, Palmer and João Pedro are among Maresca’s most important options, while returnees Delap and Estêvão provide additional depth. Statistically, 80% of their last five games in all competitions have produced two or more goals, underscoring a team that is more dangerous offensively but remains vulnerable.
Interestingly, Chelsea are expected to stick with Maresca’s predicted 4-2-3-1 formation, with Sánchez in goal behind a back four of Gusto, Fofana, Adarabioyo, and Cucurella. In the center, Caicedo and James should once again share control of the midfield, with James pushing forward from the double six into higher zones, while Neto, Palmer, and Garnacho operate in the attacking positions behind João Pedro as the most likely center forward. This is still a predicted starting lineup, and late adjustments remain possible. This lineup would align Chelsea’s current league dynamics even more strongly around James and Caicedo, with Cucurella also in strong form. The biggest variations are expected to come from the bench, where Delap and Estêvão are back as options after their return, while the injured Colwill and Lavia, the suspended Mudryk, and the unavailable Disasi limit Maresca’s scope for rotation.
Aston Villa Form & Record Check
Aston Villa travels to West London as the Premier League’s most in-form team. The team is in third place in the table with 36 points, just three behind Arsenal and one behind Manchester City, with a seven-point cushion over Chelsea. They are unbeaten in 19 games in all competitions and have won ten in a row, turning a season that started with five winless league games into a real title race. The recent phase has mixed control with high risk. The 2-1 home win against Manchester United was largely down to Rogers’ two goals and Unai Emery’s targeted plan, although United narrowly led in shots, possession, and expected goals. That was preceded by a 3-2 comeback at West Ham, a 2-1 statement against Arsenal, and a wild 4-3 win at Brighton, plus a solid 2-1 win in Basel in Europe. These games paint a clear picture: Villa has scored in every half of their last five games and netted multiple times in each of those games, but at the same time, they’ve conceded goals in all five games and let their opponents back into the game time and time again. Data shows that each of these games exceeded the 2.5 total goals mark, while their expected goals difference is around minus 0.22 per game, which is only in the lower range of the league. Emery’s basic formation remains compact and tight, with John McGinn and Rogers starting nominally on the wings but constantly pulling into the half-spaces, which explains how Villa can be at a disadvantage in terms of shots but still create the clearer moments. Rogers is the most notable overperformer in terms of expected goals in the league, with seven goals from 2.8 xG and a total of seven goals plus three assists in 17 appearances, while Boubacar Kamara stands out as an important defensive and midfield presence. Defensively, Emiliano Martinez continues to make crucial saves on a regular basis, with recent concerns about his back and the head injury against United highlighting how dependent Villa is on his availability. Ezri Konsa’s consistency has made him one of the standout defenders of 2025, but the team’s negative xG and regular conceding of chances suggest that this run may not be entirely sustainable statistically, even if confidence currently appears almost unshakeable. Squad depth could still be a key factor in whether this form continues. Tyrone Mings remains sidelined with a thigh problem and Evann Guessand is away on international duty, limiting options in defense and attack. External pressure to sign an experienced goalkeeper and a right-sided attacking player is mounting, while prediction models continue to expect Villa to slip slightly and settle around third place in the table rather than remaining in the title race for the long term.
At Aston Villa, Emery is expected to stick with his familiar 4-2-3-1 formation, with Martínez in goal, provided his recent back problems and head injury do not cause any setbacks. In front of him, a compact but mobile back four of Cash, Konsa, Lindelöf, and Maatsen is likely to start, while Kamara and Onana will protect the central areas as a double six and initiate transitions. Further forward, McGinn, Tielemans, and Rogers are likely to operate closely behind Watkins, who will tie up the center backs at the front and open up space for Rogers’ runs. With Mings out and Guessand unavailable due to international duty, defensive rotation options are limited and Watkins has little natural cover, which is why substitutes such as Pau Torres, Digne, Buendía or Sancho could be used to change the structure and static nature of the formation during the game. This formation should be seen as a probable starting lineup rather than a definite commitment, as late fitness checks on Martínez after his injuries or simple rotation decisions by Emery could change one or two positions on matchday.
Chelsea – Aston Villa Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
In the last five direct duels, Chelsea has had a slight advantage, with two wins to Aston Villa’s one and two draws. The overall goal difference of 9-5 in favor of the Blues underscores a small but noticeable offensive superiority, without suggesting sustained dominance, especially as the results keep swinging back and forth and Villa’s 2-1 win in February 2025 keeps the rivalry open. Home advantage was less decisive than one might intuitively think. Chelsea celebrated a 3-0 league win at Stamford Bridge in 2024 and had previously held a 0-0 draw in the FA Cup. At Villa Park in 2024, Chelsea followed up with a 3-1 win in the cup replay and a 2-2 draw in the league, before Aston Villa’s 2-1 home win in February 2025 showed that the home side by no means always dictate the play there. The goal tally also suggests an open game. Four of the five most recent encounters have produced at least two goals, and in each of those four games the total was three goals, with only the 0-0 draw in the 2024 Cup breaking that trend. None of those games saw three or more goals scored in the second half, and Chelsea scored in four of the five games. Psychologically, the Blues are likely to enter the game with a little more confidence, buoyed by their two wins and superior goal difference, while Villa will be buoyed by their 2-1 home win in February 2025, which shows how quickly the tide can turn. Taken together, the last five encounters point to a game in which momentum can quickly shift and in which it seems entirely plausible to expect chances for both attacking lines once again.
