A basement battle that already feels like a mini-final for survival awaits on Sunday afternoon at the Unipol Domus, when Cagliari host Pisa on matchday 16 of Serie A. Pisacane’s team is in fifteenth place with 14 points, while Pisa is in nineteenth place with 10 points. The last meeting between the two sides was in April 2023 in Serie B and ended 0-0, with Cagliari unbeaten in the last three head-to-head matches. In terms of form, neither side has fully lived up to expectations. Cagliari has won only one of its last five league games, although the narrow 2-1 defeat at Atalanta, in which Gaetano scored again, suggested some improvement. Pisa travels after three defeats in four Serie A games, including the 1-0 defeat in Lecce, which Gilardino described as their only really poor performance. Gilardino called this trip fundamental, and it could be that the greater pressure is now on Pisa, two points behind Verona and without Nzola, Cuadrado, Akinsanmiro, and Stengs, even if he is relying on alternatives such as Lorran and Tramoni. Cagliari, meanwhile, despite all the talk of a new Gigi Riva stadium and fresh investment, knows that a win would significantly ease their worries.
- Venue: Unipol Domus, Cagliari
- Date and time: December 21, 2025, 12:30 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (Matchday 16)
Interestingly, our betting approach points to Cagliari’s superiority. We are betting on Cagliari to win, hedging our bets with the double chance 1X and also targeting their strong finishing phases, including a bet on Cagliari to win the second half. Given that the bookmakers are offering odds of 2.2 for a home win, despite Pisa’s injury-plagued attack, Gaetano’s strong form, and Gilardino’s warning that the team needs to change course, this assessment seems generous.
Cagliari form & record check
Cagliari go into this game on the back of a mixed but by no means disastrous run of results. In their last five games in all competitions, they beat Roma 1-0, drew 3-3 at home to Genoa, lost narrowly 2-1 away to Juventus and Atalanta, and were eliminated from the Coppa Italia in Naples after a 1-1 draw on penalties. Overall, these encounters were open and eventful. The pattern is clear: Cagliari scores regularly but struggles in the early stages of games. In their last five matches, the team has always scored, often after the break, and Gaetano is in good form with goals in consecutive appearances, yet they concede early goals in most games. This team may still be learning to control games from the first whistle, as the defeat in Bergamo seemed to show. In Serie A, Pisacane’s team is in fifteenth place with 14 points, just behind Lecce and just ahead of Genoa. For a team that has measured itself against Juventus, Napoli, and Atalanta, this position seems below their potential, but the victory against Roma and the performance in Bergamo indicate room for improvement, even if Belotti’s injury and other absences mean that Esposito, Pavoletti, and Gaetano have to carry most of the offensive load.
In our prediction, Cagliari remain with Pisacane in a 3-5-2, with Caprile in goal and a defense built around Luperto and Rodríguez, complemented by Zappa, Palestra, and Obert in a defensive five. In midfield, Adopo, Deiola, and Folorunsho should form a robust central block behind the striking duo of Esposito and Kılıçsoy, who are both expected to start. This is only a projected lineup, and late changes are always possible, but several absences limit the options in attack. Belotti and Felici remain sidelined with long-term knee injuries, Borrelli is still unavailable, Luvumbo is away on international duty, as is Liteta. Zé Pedro is still out, and Gaetano, fresh from his goal against Atalanta, is likely to be an important option off the bench in our prediction.
Pisa Form & Record Check
Pisa’s form in Serie A is currently worrying. The team is in nineteenth place with 10 points, two behind Verona directly above them and four ahead of Fiorentina at the bottom of the table. The trend is negative, with only one win and one draw in their last five league games, which has dragged them deeper into the battle at the bottom of the table. In terms of results, the downward trend began after a 1-0 home win against Cremonese and a 2-2 draw at Sassuolo, which seemed like a solid foundation for a promoted team. Since then, Pisa have lost 2-0 to Inter and then 1-0 at home to Parma, with Gilardino admitting they had thrown away the first half, before a flat 1-0 defeat in Lecce followed, which he described as their only really poor team performance. Statistics underscore a team that rarely controls games. In their last five league games, Pisa have never led at halftime, with most first halves ending evenly with very few goals. Most of these games have remained under 2.5 goals, and they have conceded in almost all of them, so while the scores have remained close, it is difficult to come back from behind with their current offensive performance. Personnel problems partly explain the slump; without Nzola, Cuadrado, Akinsanmiro, and Stengs, Pisa has lost pace and creativity, which puts additional responsibility on Lorran and Tramoni in the final third. Interestingly, they have already contributed to Milan’s problems against promoted teams, so the potential is there, but a sharper attitude and better coordinated pressure will be needed to convert performances into points.
Pisa are also likely to line up in a 3-5-2, with Semper in goal behind a back three of Calabresi, Caracciolo, and Canestrelli. Our predicted midfield sees Touré and Marin providing balance alongside Aebischer, while Vural and Angori operate as wing-backs. Up front, Meister and Moreo could once again form a very physical duo, useful both in pressing and in offensive set pieces. Again, this is only a predicted lineup, as Gilardino has to cope with the confirmed absences of Akinsanmiro, Cuadrado, Stengs, and Nzola, which reduces the creative quality and depth in attack. Lorran and Tramoni are likely to be the first options off the bench to change the tempo between the lines, while young goalkeeper Buffon could once again be considered as a substitute, as an interesting long-term project.
Cagliari – Pisa Head-to-head & Statistics
In the last three meetings between Cagliari and Pisa, Cagliari has had the slight edge, with one win and two draws. The only clear result came in the 2021 Coppa Italia match, a 3-1 home win for Cagliari, with the subsequent league matches in 2022 and 2023 both ending in draws. This series means that Cagliari has gone three games without defeat in this head-to-head comparison, while Pisa remains without a win. In these three games, Cagliari has scored four goals and conceded two, giving Pisa an average of less than one goal per game. The trend is towards tighter games, from four goals in 2021 to just one in 2022 and no goals in 2023. Furthermore, Pisa has never scored in the first half in this series, with all of their goals coming after the break. Another pattern is Cagliari’s ability to avoid defeat; they have not lost any of these three games, and Pisa has not managed a single win in regular time. Cagliari also tends not to concede early goals against this opponent, which may give them a slight psychological advantage, as Pisa has yet to turn any of these duels into a clear victory.
