A Real Madrid side in search of stability faces a Deportivo Alavés team that has just found new courage at the Estadio Mendizorrotza. Eduardo Coudet’s team is in 11th place in the table with 18 points, right between Celta Vigo and Rayo Vallecano, and is coming off a deserved 1-0 home win against Real Sociedad, which felt like a small fresh start after three league deficits, carried by the intensity of Rebbach, Calebe and Boyé, as well as a strong Sivera in goal. On the other hand, Xabi Alonso’s Real Madrid travel as second in the table, four points behind leaders Barcelona, but with only one league win in their last five games and fresh from a 2-1 defeat in the Champions League at Manchester City, which has reinforced doubts about Alonso’s project. At the same time, a defense with the second-best record in La Liga is constantly facing changes due to injuries and suspensions, while Mbappé’s absence further increases the team’s offensive dependence. For Alavés, a good home performance would be an important step toward stable mid-table security, while for Madrid, this game feels like a must-win to stay at the top of the table.
- Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
- Date and time: December 14, 2025, 9:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 16)
Our betting approaches are well aligned, because although the bookmakers see Real Madrid at around 1.7 and Alavés at 5.5, Madrid’s superior offensive depth justifies a bet on Real Madrid to win, and even on Real Madrid to lead at halftime, because Coudet’s team often starts slowly. Interestingly, however, the real advantage lies in betting on both teams to score: yes, because Xabi Alonso’s makeshift defense and Mbappé’s absence favor a goal for Alavés, especially since Alavés has shown an upward trend recently against Real Sociedad and in the Copa.
Alaves Form & Record Check
Deportivo Alavés comes into this round from the honest midfield, sitting in 11th place in La Liga with 18 points and a goal difference of minus two, just one point behind Celta Vigo and one ahead of Rayo Vallecano. Across all competitions, their last five games have shown an all-or-nothing tendency, with two wins and three losses and not a single draw. The 1-0 home win against Real Sociedad felt like a fresh start, with Coudet once again opting for an aggressive attacking trio of Calebe, Rebbach, and Boyé, who scored shortly before halftime, while Siveras’ double save and a decisive intervention from Tenaglia underlined a more focused defensive performance. Alavés repeatedly created chances down the wings and from set pieces, even if the score remained tight. These improvements came after a dismal spell in which the 1-0 defeat in Girona and the 0-1 home defeat to Celta Vigo exposed familiar problems in breaking down compact defensive blocks, while the 3-1 defeat in Barcelona showed the team’s limitations when the game opens up. There has been a noticeable lack of mediocrity in these games, with none of the last five league and cup matches ending in a draw. Alavés either wins narrowly or pays dearly for mistakes in both penalty areas. Coudet may still be searching for the right balance between more proactive pressing and the cover that his back four clearly needs. In terms of personnel, Garcés’ long suspension leaves the options in central defense thin, so Pacheco, Tenaglia, Jonny Otto, and Victor Parada have a heavy burden to bear. In midfield, Guevara, Denis Suárez, and Ibáñez gave the team more rhythm against Real Sociedad, while Boyé once again acted as a natural target man. If this core remains fit, Alavés seems capable of stabilizing its form in the league.
Alavés will in all likelihood stick with Coude’s now familiar 4-1-4-1 formation, very similar to the one that started against Real Sociedad. In the predicted lineup, Sivera is once again in goal, with Otto, Tenaglia, Pacheco, and Parada in the back line. Garcés remains suspended by the sports court, so the central defense is likely to remain unchanged. In midfield, we see Guevara covering in front of the defense, with Ibáñez and Suárez as central midfielders and Calebe and Rebbach pushing in from the wings behind Boyé as the lone striker. Blanco or Aleñá are also realistic options for the central roles, so this formation remains more of a preliminary sketch than a confirmed starting lineup.
Real Form & Record Check
Real Madrid arrive in Vitoria at a delicate but not disastrous moment. The team is second in La Liga with 36 points, four behind Barcelona and only one ahead of Villarreal. In their last five games in all competitions, they have recorded two wins, one draw, and two defeats, with only two wins in their last eight games overall. This domestic run has been marked by inconsistency. The emphatic 3-0 win at Athletic seemed to validate Xabi Alonso’s ideas at first, but the draw at Girona and, in particular, the defeat to Celta, which saw red cards and will now result in suspensions, have raised doubts once again. Nevertheless, data from La Liga shows that Madrid has conceded the second fewest goals in the competition, tied with Atlético, despite constant changes in defense. In Europe, the picture is more volatile. The 4-3 win in Piraeus revealed both the power of the offense and a leaky defense, while the defeats at Anfield and against City reinforced a feeling of fragility at key moments rather than Madrid being clearly inferior. Predictions continue to give Madrid a realistic chance of finishing in the top eight of the Champions League, even if the margin for error has shrunk. Statistically, their recent games have been almost without exception open, with all of the last five producing at least two goals, Madrid scoring in four of them and also conceding in four, which is fitting for a team that presses high but does not always control its own penalty area. Against City, they recorded their highest pressing volume of this Champions League season, but physical breakdowns and lapses in concentration are likely to have undermined that effort. Injuries and suspensions explain part of the story, with the defense going through 11 center-back combinations, Militão, Alaba, Mendy, Alexander Arnold, and Carvajal all unavailable, and Camavinga also out. In attack, the team is heavily dependent on Mbappé, who has been involved in 29 of Alonso’s 45 goals, and when he is absent or limited, as against Celta and City, Madrid’s attacking ideas seem much less convincing. Against this backdrop, there is a feeling within the club that performances are not matching the squad’s potential, but the management has not taken any drastic decisions so far, even though Xabi Alonso is clearly under scrutiny after this phase. There are signs of a discernible idea, but physical and mental recovery seems to be progressing more slowly than planned.
Real Madrid are expected to stick with their predicted 4-2-3-1 formation, although Xabi Alonso could make one or two late changes. In our predicted lineup, Courtois is in goal, with Asencio, Rüdiger, and Huijsen in front of him. The left side is basically reserved for Fran García, but his suspension in La Liga suggests that a full-back from Castilla will be used. Tchouameni and Valverde will play as a double six behind Bellingham, Rodrygo, Vinicius, and Gonzalo García. In defense, the options are heavily influenced by injuries, with Militão, Alaba, Mendy, Alexander Arnold, and Carvajal all out, plus suspensions for Fran García, Carreras, and Endrick after the Celta game. Camavinga is also missing in midfield, while Mbappé’s broken toe should prevent him from taking the lead, so in this predicted starting lineup, the offensive burden would fall primarily on Vinicius, Rodrygo, and Bellingham.
Alaves – Real Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
Real Madrid have taken every single point from their last five league encounters, winning five out of five with a total score of 13-2. The streak dates back to 2022 and includes three home wins and two away wins for Madrid, with no draws during that period, so Alavés have had no room for maneuver recently. The streak began in 2022 with a 3-0 home win for Madrid, and in 2023, Madrid prevailed 1-0 on Alavés’ home turf. The 2024 encounters both took place in the capital, first a 5-0 demolition, then a 3-2 win in which Alavés at least scored. The most recent chapter, in April 2025, brought another 1-0 away win for Madrid. Overall, Alavés has failed to score in four of the five encounters and in both home games during this period, while Madrid has scored in every game and recorded four clean sheets. Psychologically, this could weigh on Alavés, as the Basques have yet to earn a single point from this modern excerpt. In terms of the flow of the game, the statistics are striking: Alavés has not scored a single goal in the first half in these five games, while Madrid has kept a clean sheet before the break every time. Most of the damage is done after halftime, with Madrid scoring in the second half in four consecutive encounters and scoring more goals than Alavés in the last three after the break.
