Returning to the renovated Spotify Camp Nou feels like a fresh start for Barcelona. After more than two years without a home game at this stadium, Barça wants to show 45,000 fans against Athletic Bilbao that second place with 28 points and Robert Lewandowski’s recent hat trick in Vigo are signs of a real upward trend.
However, the personnel situation is tense. Pedri and Marc-André ter Stegen are definitely out for Barcelona, while Frenkie de Jong is suspended. Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, and Marc Casadó are doubtful but could return. Athletic Bilbao will be without the injured Iñaki Williams, and the return of Oihan Sancet is uncertain.
Both teams are inconsistent in their current form, each with two wins from their last five games. In head-to-head matches, Barcelona has mostly had the upper hand recently with three wins from the last five encounters, with the Basques only prevailing after extra time in the 2024 Copa quarterfinals.
- Venue: Camp Nou, Barcelona
- Date and time: November 22, 2025, 4:15 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 13)
The betting market rates Barcelona as the clear favorite with odds of 1.4, but the data suggests a more open game. Both teams have recently been dangerous in attack but vulnerable in defense. Barcelona has scored in each of its last five games and conceded goals in all of them, while Athletic Bilbao has conceded at least one goal in four of its last five games.
A bet on over 2.5 goals is therefore well justified. Barcelona’s offensive power, including Lewandowski’s hat trick in Vigo, will face two defenses that have regularly conceded chances recently. The absences in Barcelona’s attacking positions with Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, and Pedri reduce the creativity, but the emotional factor of the home comeback at Camp Nou can partially compensate for that.
The bet on both teams to score also seems plausible. Both defenses have shown weaknesses in recent weeks, and Athletic, under Ernesto Valverde, brings structure and counterattacking threat despite absences. The absence of Ter Stegen further weakens Barcelona’s defense, which increases the likelihood of a goal from the visitors.
A double chance on Athletic is significantly riskier and contradicts the clear market opinion, but it can be argued. The large number of missing regulars at Barcelona and the recent results with the draw against Brugge and the defeat against Real could create additional pressure, so this would be a speculative value approach for very risk-taking bettors.
Recommendation in the hierarchy: primarily the tip Over 2.5 goals, because the ratio of risk and possible value seems reasonable. Secondarily, Both Teams to Score is a good option. The double chance on Athletic remains a small, speculative side bet and should only be played with careful bankroll management.
Barcelona form & record check
Barcelona is enjoying an inconsistent but overall solid phase in La Liga. With 28 points, the team is in second place, three points behind Real Madrid and two ahead of Villarreal. The starting position in the title race is therefore decent, but the gap to the top is already clearly noticeable.
Their offensive productivity is striking. Barcelona has scored in each of its last five competitive games, netting at least three goals in four of those matches, including a 6-1 win over Olympiacos and a 4-2 victory in Vigo. Robert Lewandowski is in good form, as evidenced by his hat trick in Vigo. The team regularly scores goals in the first half, giving them early momentum.
However, this is offset by defensive problems. In the same five games, Barcelona conceded at least one goal in each, which highlights the vulnerability of the back line and explains fluctuations such as the 3-3 draw in Bruges, where a lead was not held onto.
The personnel situation exacerbates the picture. Pedri and Marc-André ter Stegen are definitely out, and Frenkie de Jong is suspended. Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, and Marc Casadó are also doubtful. Hansi Flick will have to get creative in midfield and on the wings, putting Marcus Rashford and Ferran Torres more in the spotlight.
Tactically, an offensive start is therefore to be expected in order to exploit the strength of the early stages. At the same time, Flick faces the task of stabilizing the team defensively, for example through more compact midfield pressing and better cover for the full-backs. Rotation in attack and adjustments in central midfield are likely in order to compensate for fatigue and absences.
Hansi Flick is likely to stick with his usual 4-3-3 formation, even though several key regulars are unavailable. The loss of Lamine Yamal is particularly painful, and Raphinha, Pedri, and Marc Casadó are also missing.
Marcus Rashford and Ferran Torres could start on the wings. In central midfield, Fermín and Dani Olmo are expected to provide creativity and access alongside Frenkie de Jong in this predicted lineup, even though De Jong is considered suspended and is not actually available.
In defense, Ronald Araújo and Óscar Cubarsí are expected to start in the center, flanked by Jules Koundé and Alejandro Balde on the outside. Despite speculation about his future, Robert Lewandowski should once again take on the role of target man in the center of the attack. Wojciech Szczęsny is expected to start in goal, as both Marc-André ter Stegen and Joan García are out with injuries. As always, the official lineup shortly before kickoff will provide definitive clarity.
Bilbao Form & Record Check
Athletic Bilbao is going through a mixed phase. In their last five competitive games, they have recorded two wins and three defeats, conceding goals in four of those games, resulting in a negative goal difference of minus 1. It is noteworthy that none of these games ended in a draw, which shows a clear pattern between wins and defeats.
The offense often lacks consistency and punch. The recent league win against Oviedo was rather fortunate; after Nico Williams’ early goal, the result was mainly managed. Injury and personnel problems exacerbate the situation: Oihan Sancet is out indefinitely with a thigh injury, and Iñaki Williams is expected to be out until mid-December with adductor problems. In addition, Yeray Álvarez is suspended until April and Unai Egiluz is out with a cruciate ligament rupture, which significantly limits Ernesto Valverde’s options, especially in attack and defense.
Defensively, stability remains the main issue. The game in Newcastle and the Basque Country derby against Real Sociedad, which ended in a 2-3 defeat, revealed a lack of composure and ideas at crucial moments. The return of Aymeric Laporte is a clear positive sign, and his experience and leadership should help to organize the defense, even if this has not yet been clearly reflected in recent results.
Athletic are seventh in the table with 17 points. They are only one point behind Espanyol above them and level on points with Getafe below them, which means that the air can quickly become thin. This is compounded by the club’s strict recruitment policy with a very small catchment area, which severely limits possible transfers in the event of a wave of injuries.
In the short term, it is advisable to clearly prioritize defensive organization, with a focus on compactness, transition movements, and set pieces, which have often been a weak point so far. In attack, more flexible solutions are needed without Sancet and Iñaki Williams, such as an even more central role for Nico Williams and the targeted use of wild card players such as Selton Sánchez. Mentally, the team should be better prepared to manage narrow leads and maintain tactical discipline in the final stages of games; sports psychology support can help here. In the long term, taking a closer look at the youth academy and, if necessary, targeted loans remain a sensible strategy for increasing squad depth without straying from the club’s philosophy. Overall, despite all its problems, Athletic has resources such as Laporte’s experience and exciting talents at its disposal, but faces a delicate test in the coming weeks in terms of both defense and personnel.
Ernesto Valverde is likely to opt for a 4-2-3-1 formation at Camp Nou. Unai Simón will be in goal, with a back four of Gorosabel, Vivian, Laporte, and Berchiche in front of him. Vesga and Ruiz de Galarreta are expected to play in defensive midfield, with Berenguer, Gómez, and Nico Williams providing support in the attacking trio, while Guruzeta will play as the lone striker.
Important absences are affecting the plans. Oihan Sancet is out with a thigh injury, and the timing of his return is uncertain. Iñaki Williams is also expected to be unavailable due to an adductor injury, which will noticeably weaken the offense. On a positive note, Aymeric Laporte is back in the lineup after his return from Saudi Arabia and is expected to stabilize the defense with his experience and presence.
Barcelona – Bilbao Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
Barcelona has dominated recent head-to-head matches with Athletic Bilbao. In the last five encounters, there have been three wins for Barça, one win for Athletic in the Copa del Rey match in January 2024, and a 0-0 draw in March 2024. The last game to date ended in May 2025 with a clear 3-0 away win for Barcelona in Bilbao.
The patterns within these games are striking. In 80% of the encounters, Barcelona scored before the break, while Athletic conceded at least one goal in the first half in four of the last five matches. The second halves, on the other hand, were unusually low-scoring, with fewer than two goals scored after the break in all five games.
Barcelona failed to score only once in this series, namely in the 0-0 draw in March 2024. Since winning the cup in January 2024, Athletic has been waiting for another win against Barcelona, losing the following direct encounters in August 2024, January 2025, and May 2025. Overall, the recent record clearly favors Barcelona, with the Catalans tending to decide games early and producing more consistent attacking performances.
