Atletico Madrid – Elche
Germán Valera returns to the Metropolitano as an opponent, where he made his debut under Diego Simeone at the age of 17. The 22-year-old full-back, who scored his first Primera División goal against Betis on the first matchday, now faces a struggling Atlético Madrid with newly promoted Elche. After a surprising 2-1 defeat at Espanyol, Simeone’s team now face a must-win game at home in the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. The Rojiblancos were superior in the first half in Cornellà and took the lead through Julián Álvarez, but then exactly what expert Santiago Cañizares sharply criticized happened: The team sat back, lost control and conceded two late goals. With investments of around €190 million, expectations are correspondingly high, but the absence of Álex Baena, who has suffered a muscle injury and is expected to be out until after the international break, makes the situation even more difficult. Elche started with a 1-1 draw against Real Betis and are in ninth place with one point, while bookmakers see Atlético as clear favorites with an 80% chance of winning despite their form problems.
Atletico – Elche CF Info
- Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
- Date and time: 23.08.2025, 19:30
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 2)
Atletico form & record check
The defeat against Espanyol exposed familiar weaknesses in the Rojiblancos. After Álvarez gave the visitors the lead from a free kick in the 37th minute, everything seemed to be going according to plan, but Miguel Rubio and Pere Milla turned the game around completely within eleven minutes. Interestingly, this repeated a pattern that haunted Atlético time and again last season. After this false start, the team is now in 14th place in the table. Simeone is facing tactical adjustments after his original plan of playing Baena as a second striker behind Álvarez has to be put on hold for the time being. The coach is considering pulling Álvarez further back and giving Alexander Sørloth more responsibility in the center of the attack. The first five games show a team that has scored more than 2.5 goals in 80% of cases but has not ended a single game in a draw.
Simeone is likely to go into the game with his preferred 4-2-3-1 formation, although Álex Baena’s injury has thrown a spanner in the works. The Spaniard is expected to be out until after the international break with a muscle problem, which is causing the coach headaches. Without Baena, Simeone could pull Julián Álvarez back a little and use Sørloth as the lone striker. This variation would give the team different qualities, even if Baena was originally intended to be the creative force behind Álvarez. Alternatively, Griezmann, who could return to his natural position, or Raspadori are available.
Elche CF Form & Record Check
Elche got off to a decent start in the league with a draw against Betis. However, the 1-1 draw at home in Martínez Valero was somewhat fortunate, as the Andalusians took an early lead through Aitor Ruibal and controlled large parts of the game. It was not until the 81st minute that Germán Valera scored the late equalizer after coach Eder Sarabia had already made his attacking substitutions. Interestingly, after just one league game, a pattern is already emerging that ran through the entire previous season in the Segunda División: Elche almost always scores, but often has problems in defense. The statistics from the last five games speak for themselves: there have been at least two goals in every game, and the Alicante team has always scored at least once. Reinforcements Rafa Mir and possibly André Silva are expected to revitalize the offense, with Mir already arriving in Alicante and possibly making his debut against Atlético.
Eder Sarabia is likely to field his team in the usual 4-3-3 formation. The predicted line-up sees Dituro in goal in front of a back four of Álvaro Núñez, Affengruber, Bigas and Pétrot. Febas, Aguado and Redondo could provide stability in midfield, while Valera, Rafa Mir and Rodríguez should lead the attack. The role of Rafa Mir, who has been loaned from Sevilla and is expected to give the team extra firepower, will be interesting to watch. Yago Santiago is out long term with a cruciate ligament rupture, but this should not significantly affect the tactical plans. André Silva could also play a role after his transfer from Leipzig is nearing completion.
H2H Atletico – Elche CF Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The most recent meeting between the two teams was back in January 2025, when Atlético Madrid triumphed 4-0 in Elche in the Copa del Rey. This result fits perfectly into the picture of recent years, in which the Colchoneros have developed remarkable dominance against the Andalusians. Atlético have won three of the last four encounters, with only a 1-0 win for Elche in May 2023 breaking the streak. The lack of goals in these encounters is striking: four of the last five games have seen fewer than 2.5 goals, which is typical for Atlético games against supposedly weaker opponents. The first half has almost always been uneventful, suggesting that both teams are cautious. Elche have been waiting three games for a goal against the Madrid side, which may be due to the fact that the team from the province of Alicante often play too defensively when they visit the Metropolitano.
Our three betting tips are based on solid data and a detailed analysis of the current form of both teams. While the betting markets rate Atlético Madrid as clear favorites at 1.3, we believe they are overlooking the goal trends and defensive problems of both teams. The first tip, over 2.5 goals, is based on the impressive statistic that Atlético Madrid has seen over 2.5 goals in 80% of its last five games, while Elche has scored at least 1.5 goals in all of its last five games. Recent signings Rafa Mir and André Silva significantly strengthen Elche’s attacking potential, which adds weight to Cañizares’ criticism of Simeone’s defensive approach after the Espanyol debacle. Our second tip, Both teams to score: Yes, is backed up by Elche’s perfect scoring record of 100% in their last five games and Atlético’s 80%, as well as the absence of Baena, an important creative player, which will result in tactical adjustments. The third tip on Over 1.5 goals – 2nd half takes advantage of an interesting observation: Atlético finds itself in this situation in 80% of cases, while Elche also scores 80% of its goals after the break.
