NBA 2022/23, on Tuesday, 10.01.2023
With all the hoopla surrounding the NFL playoffs starting next weekend, I’ve got this game between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers marked red on my calendar – and for good reason.
Because in my Nuggets Lakers tip, I’m assuming the Californians will be brought back down to earth by the NBA’s best home team – who also play top-notch defence – on Tuesday morning.
The Lakers are seeing a little light at the end of the tunnel! Because what promised to be a real horror campaign due to Anthony Davis’ injury is turning more and more into an average, if not passable season.
LeBron James manages to keep the Californians on course and – with the exception of the game against the Heat – has had a hand in every single one of the Lakers’ 5 consecutive victories.
A few days ago, the purple and gold managed to pull off the last coup against the Kings with 136-134. But in my opinion, that’s where it will stay for the time being, because the upcoming opponent is simply too big.
Nikola Jokić is playing his third straight season at the MVP level, and thanks to the return of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, the Colorado State team finally has the depth to make their mark in the playoffs.
In a season that is shaping up more and more the way the Nuggets had hoped in advance, I can easily see them finishing in first place in this slightly weaker conference as well.
What convinces me so much about my Nuggets-Lakers tip is the outstanding defence of the home side. With the exception of the Grizzlies, nobody has really been able to hold a candle to them in the new year.
In the Ball Arena, it’s the home side that dominates – league-wide. After all, with a record of 16 wins to only 3 losses, no other NBA franchise has been as strong in front of a home crowd this season as the Nuggets have been in front of their fans.
Los Angeles, in this context, not only has a negative away record of 9 to 13, but without Anthony Davis, they will not develop enough penetrating power to overcome Denver’s defence.
LeBron James will be facing Nikola Jokic, an opponent who is not only younger and more persistent, but who can also keep up with “The King” in terms of physicality. Here it would be necessary for LA to have another strong scorer on hand.
While the Lakers have a promising centre in Thomas Bryant who just played his best game for the purple and gold against the Kings with 29 points. However, I remain sceptical whether that will actually be enough.
Jamal Murray’s aforementioned return, after all, is the key to success for the Nuggets, as the only 25-year-old is an excellent defender who is also capable of some things moving forward.
Generally, the problem with the Lakers is that LeBron James has accumulated quite a bit of playing time by now and during the necessary breathers on the bench, he usually has to watch the opposing team make up a lot of ground.
I think this scenario is especially likely in the clash against the Nuggets, as Denver simply has a bit more quality at all positions and the Californians could fall behind in no time without James on the floor.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, have “filled up” the ten – meaning the number of consecutive home wins, of which the 121-109 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers a few days ago is the keystone.
The Lakers have also only won one of their last seven away games as guests in Denver during the regular season – and that only with their best line-up.
Consequently, the best sports betting providers when it comes to the NBA also expect the conference first to prevail relatively clearly in their own stadium.
Because the Nuggets Lakers odds have been designed in such a way that the win factor in the case of the home side is around 1.27, while it ranks at around 3.90 in the case of a triumph for the Californians.
Conclusion: Without Walker and without Davis in the line-up, all is not lost, but Schröder and Bryant alone will not be enough to successfully assist LeBron James against the Nuggets.
Denver has excellent players at all positions and Nikola Jokic, who in my opinion will be this year’s MVP.
Los Angeles will be able to hold up relatively well, especially in the early stages, but will fall further and further behind as the game progresses.
My Nuggets Lakers tip: Win Denver with HC -8.5.
