ATP Masters in Miami, 3rd round, Monday, 24/03/2025, 03:00
Don’t slip into a low from which there is no escape! Alexander Zverev has not covered himself in glory since his Australian Open final, so a good performance at the Miami Masters is anything but a given.
After a confident start, his opponent will now be much more difficult, as he is based in the top 40. So, in my Zverev Thompson betting tip, I will tell you why I will bet on the underdog winning a set here.
Did the final defeat affect him more than expected? Alexander Zverev has once again missed out on finally winning a Grand Slam tournament at the Australian Open. It seems as though he has not yet fully recovered from his clear defeat against Jannik Sinner.
He has celebrated a measly five victories since then, and more than a quarter-final at the relatively small tournament in Rio de Janeiro was no longer possible. In Acapulco, which is actually one of Zverev’s favorite tournaments, he lost early on against Learner Tien.
When he arrived in Indian Wells, the crisis continued. The Olympic champion lost in round 1 with 6-4, 6-7, 6-7 against Tallon Griekspoor. The mood? Very low. His fans hope that he will now attack in Miami with the appropriate rage in his belly.
He has already reached a final here in 2018, so his best performance was a long time ago. To start with, he faced a relatively easy opponent in Jacob Fearnley, and Zverev came through to a very solid 6-2, 6-4.
90% first serve success, 82% first service points, both break points defended, the 27-year-old could be satisfied with this performance.
They were only on court for 74 minutes. “I felt relatively comfortable. Of course, I hope that this is just the beginning of the tournament and that I will play many more matches. But after not feeling comfortable at all in Indian Wells, I’m glad that I showed such a level here today,” said the world number 2.
Zverev knows that it won’t be easy to beat Jordan Thompson. The two are currently level at 2-2 in their head-to-head, but the Australian has won two of their last three meetings (the first of which was in 2017).
Nevertheless, our bookmakers believe that Monday’s match won’t be that close. They see the German as having a clear advantage, with the odds averaging 1.18 to 4.45.
Jordan Thompson already had to survive two rounds in Miami, in which he served well. He started with a 3-6, 6-4, 7-5 against Marcos Giron in the tournament, followed by a 7-6, 7-6 against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
In the second round, he allowed his opponent to break him once, but 89% of the points won on his first serve could not be denied. The 30-year-old had already failed in Indian Wells at the start, and at the Australian Open he only made it to the second round.
Between the first Grand Slam of the year and the appearance in Indian Wells, he was out of action, so it is now difficult to get into a rhythm and to properly assess his performance.
Thomson is 15 centimeters shorter than Zverev, which is definitely an advantage for the German when it comes to serving. Incidentally, the Australian was only able to reach the round of 16 in Miami once in 2019, and he also beat two strong players here, Karen Khachanov and Grigor Dimitrov.
My Zverev Thompson Tip
How will the Miami Masters continue for Alexander Zverev? The Hamburg native had a very confident start to the tournament, but he only had to deal with a qualifier. His current opponent, Jordan Thompson, is much more challenging.
Zverev may be the favorite by a long shot, but I would still be a little more cautious. Thompson has won two of the last three duels, and showed a real energy performance against Mpetshi Perricard. My tip is therefore:
Zverev won’t get through here smoothly!
