Key Facts
- Alavés sits in third place with 10 points, while Valencia, at the bottom of the table, has just one point—the start of the season underscores the clear disparity between the two teams.
- Alavés has won all three of its home games, while Valencia has suffered four losses in its last five matches—this supports the pick for a home win.
- Valencia’s lack of scoring threat in their last five games; the absences of forwards Sergi Canós, Diego López, and Umar Sadiq strengthen the case for the “Alavés -1.5 Asian Handicap.”
- Valencia is missing Mouctar Diakhaby on defense, while Óscar Sánchez is only taking over on an interim basis—less-coordinated options make it harder to stabilize the team.
- Alavés’s Asian handicap of 1.5 goals remains riskier despite their home strength, as the coaching change and expectations of a draw argue against a clear victory.
Match Preview
Valencia fired Carlos Corberan just a few days before Tuesday’s La Liga match; Óscar Sánchez is now temporarily taking the reins at Estadio Mendizorrotza. Alavés sits in third place with 10 points and has gotten off to a significantly better start than last-place Valencia, which has one point. However, Alavés’ 2–3 loss in March 2026 in their most recent matchup serves as a warning, as this matchup certainly punishes overconfidence.
The betting market sees Alavés as the clear favorite but considers a draw a realistic outcome. This suggests a focused home win rather than a lack of focus. This preview is backing an Alavés home win and also factoring in the 1.5-goal handicap.
- Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
- Date and Time: September 15, 2026, 8:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 6)
Alavés has won all three of its listed home league matches this season. The 3-0 win over Getafe and the 5-2 victory against Osasuna demonstrate the offensive quality needed to cover a 1.5-goal handicap. Valencia, on the other hand, arrives on the road with four consecutive league losses and will be without Mouctar Diakhaby, Sergi Canós, Diego López, and Umar Sadiq. Given this contrast, the strong support for an Alavés win is understandable, even if the high probability of a draw and Valencia’s new start under a new coach make the handicap bet riskier than a straight win.
Alavés Form & Record Check
Alavés lost 1–2 to Racing Santander three days before this match, bringing their unbeaten start to the league to an end. Ville Koski’s goal initially put the team in a good position, before Racing took control. Quique Sánchez Flores thus has a clear reason to demand more control after taking the lead.
Their home results so far provide a more meaningful indication of their potential. A 1-0 win over Villarreal was followed by a 5-2 victory against Osasuna, and the 3-0 season-opener win against Getafe also confirms that Alavés has scored in all five league games. This points toward a home win. However, the short three-day break puts a damper on this assessment, which is why a victory by a margin of several goals is considered a cautious rather than a clear prediction.
Alavés could line up in a 3-5-2 formation, with Antonio Sivera behind a back three of Nahuel Tenaglia, Ville Koski, and Jonny Otto. Antonio Blanco and Pablo Ibáñez are expected to anchor the midfield, while Abde Rebbach supports Lucas Boyé and Mariano Díaz up front.
Valencia Form & Record Check
Valencia’s 0-1 loss in Seville was their fourth consecutive league defeat; the late goal turned a controlled performance into yet another painful result. Therefore, betting on Alavés -1.5 Asian Handicap seems more logical than expecting an immediate offensive resurgence.
The coaching change could make the team’s approach more compact and is the strongest argument against a clear Alavés victory. However, the absences of Diakhaby, Canós, Diego López, and Sadiq leave the interim coach with fewer well-rehearsed options.
Alavés – Valencia Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the past 18 recorded competitive matches, Valencia has seven wins, Alavés has six, and there have been five draws. This nearly even record provides little basis for expecting an automatic away comeback. Alavés won 1–0 in May 2025 and played to a 0–0 draw in October 2025. The most recent results at this venue thus suggest a tightly contested match rather than a Valencia breakthrough.
Alavés’ 2–3 loss in March 2026 is a clear counterexample to the assumption that Alavés will win by a two-goal margin. At the same time, Alavés’ three-game unbeaten streak at home against Valencia—featuring two 1-0 wins and a 0-0 draw—makes the 1.5-goal handicap the trickiest part of this analysis.
