Indian Wells, Round of 16, Wednesday, 15/03/2023
Duell of the generations in the round of 16 at Indian Wells. Jannik Sinner will meet the three-time Grand Slam winner Stan Wawrinka.
The Italian has come through the tournament without losing a set so far, Wawrinka has had a bit more to fight for. Who will enter the quarter-finals. In my Sinner – Wawrinka tip I analyse the match for our tennis tips category .
In the sixteenth final, Sinner initially had a harder time than expected. Against Adrian Mannarino, he was the clear favourite according to our betting providers, had odds of 1.08 at various bookies before the match started.
But in the first set the South Tyrolean struggled. Again and again, the length of his strokes did not fit. However, he did not give the Frenchman a chance on his own serve, so that it at least went into a tiebreak in set one.
After several mini-breaks, the “fox” was even behind, but finally won the tie-break 9-7 and turned things around in the second set. After several attempts, he managed to break in the second set, which gave him the 7-6, 6-4 victory.
It was Sinner’s second win in Indian Wells. He also took out a Frenchman in the last 64, prevailing over Richard Gasquet (6-3, 7-6).
The 21-year-old has felt at home on hard courts recently. He reached the final in Rotterdam, losing only to high-flyer Daniil Medvedev (5-7, 6-2, 6-2).
He avenged his Australian Open defeat in the quarter-finals against Stefanos Tsitsipas (6-4, 6-3) in the last 16.
He also won without dropping a set against Tallon Griekspoor (7-5, 7-6) and against his upcoming opponent in Indian Wells, Stan Wawrinka (6-1, 6-3).
Also because of this one-sided affair, Sinner is the clear favourite in California. Bet365 has assigned the Italian a winning odds of 1.20. Wawrinka is the clear underdog at 4.50.
The 16-year-old Swiss has struggled more in his matches lately. As an unseeded player, he also had to play one more round at the first Masters of the year.
First, he eliminated Aleksandar Vukic (6-4, 1-6, 6-1). He then held his own against Miomir Kecmanovic (7-6, 6-4). The sixteenth final, in which Wawrinka beat Rune, was an avoidable nail-biter.
Against Danish newcomer Holger Rune (6-2, 6-7, 7-5), he served for the match in the second set, but lost the service game and a 5-2 lead with his own serve in the tiebreak.
In the third set, he finally secured the match with another break, an overall deserved victory.
The Swiss controlled the match, rarely had problems with his own service and played the cleverer shots with his experience.
Rune lacked the necessary feeling. From his aggressive court position, he often played balls that were far too short. The many stops, which are characteristic for his game, were also not set effectively.
Overall, Wawrinka secured almost 70 percent of all points at the net.
Wawrinka will now face a completely different style of play in the round of 16. Sinner regularly plays his vertical balls to the baseline and hardly ever makes any stops.
One of the Italian’s great strengths is his agility, with which he was also able to fascinate the sporting world on snow in alpine skiing and even became champion in the Italian region.
Wawrinka and Sinner have already met four times. In their first two matches, when Sinner was still 18, the Swiss won 3-1 at the US Open and 2-0 in Antwerp.
Three more years of experience are enough to even the score. The 21-year-old came out on top at Wimbledon 2022 (3-1 Sinner) and most recently in Rotterdam.
Summary: Wawrinka’s success against Rune was a big surprise. But the Dane made it easy at times for the three-time Grand Slam winner with 31 unforced errors, ill-advised shots.
However, Wawrinka served strongly, twelve aces and 74 percent converted points after the first serve speak for themselves.
But is it enough for the next coup? I don’t think so. Sinner will drive Wawrinka to mistakes over long rallies. At the latest when he stumbles with his first serve, it will be tight for the Swiss on serve.
At the same time, Sinner is confident and has strong nerves on his own service. Therefore, I opt for a 2:0 win for Sinner.