Men’s US Open in New York, 3rd Round on Friday, September 4, 2026, 7:00 p.m.
For several days now, I’ve been staying up late so I don’t miss the top matches of the night session at the US Open. And to see if my Wu vs. Alcaraz prediction is correct, staying up late tonight is especially worth it to me!
After all, like many others, I also want to find out whether the defending champion will go far after months away from the tour. As for a bet on his third-round match, I’m going to try a 3-0 win for Alcaraz at odds of 1.70.
Admittedly, the Spaniard lost the first set in the second round, but that was against a top-100 player. His upcoming opponent, on the other hand, is outside that ranking. And aside from that, Alcaraz is getting better with every match he plays!
Wu vs. Alcaraz AI Predictions:
I’ve now watched both of Alcaraz’s matches at this US Open in full and, for a pick on his match today, have factored in both the best odds boosts and the prediction from our data model.
Just as in the second round, the Wu Alcaraz AI prediction suggests a 3:1 set bet on the Spaniard. But even though Interwetten’s odds for this are 3.35, I would expect a straight-sets victory.
The Chinese player should be much easier to beat than Alcaraz’s last opponent, Jaime Faria. To illustrate this point, just look at the match between Faria and Wu in Cincinnati three weeks ago, which the Portuguese player won quite easily, 2–0!
Predicted probability of winning:
| Wu to win |
Alcaraz to win |
| 5.5% |
94.5% |
I also have my eye on another bet that I’ve consistently placed successfully on the Spaniard in this tournament—namely, “No Tie-Break in the Match,” for which you can expect odds of 1.76 in this case.
To force a tiebreak, the Spaniard will have to be beaten with a powerful serve. Hardly any player can keep up with him over an extended period once the rally gets going and he’s able to unleash his whip-like forehand.
However, the Chinese player simply lacks the power to intimidate the defending champion on his own serve. His average speed of 181 km/h against Duckworth was decent, but it’ll take more than that to get past Alcaraz’s return.
What to keep in mind when betting on Wu vs. Alcaraz
- Flawless head-to-head record: In their only head-to-head match to date (the Shanghai Masters in October 2024), Carlos Alcaraz prevailed 7-6, 6-3 and didn’t allow Wu a single break point throughout the entire match.
- Alcaraz on the Rise: After dropping the opening set in his second-round match against Jaime Faria, the Spaniard found his rhythm and surrendered only 5 games in total across the remaining three sets.
- Wu’s Grand Slam hurdle:For the Chinese player (ATP rank 113), this is only the second time ever that he has advanced to the third round of a Grand Slam tournament.
- Alcaraz’s Hard-Court Dominance in 2026: His record on this surface this year stands at an impressive 19-3, and in February he won the ATP tournament in Doha without dropping a single set.
