ATP tournament in Acapulco, final, Sunday, 03.03.2024
Lucrative pairing in the final of Acapulco. Alex De Minaur and Casper Ruud are likely to put up a fierce fight. However, I have particularly liked the Australian recently. Over the past few weeks, I have already written tips on matches between the two stars.
Most recently, I made the right choice in both cases. I will now also give you the best bet in the Mexican 500 final.
I’m going with Happybet’s 1.90 odds for De Minaur to win the first set and match
Acapulco has been a complete success for me so far. I’ve already written four picks for the first rounds and I’ve been right three times.
Of course I want to build on that. Especially as my last tip for a Di Minaur match in the Rotterdam final also worked out. Due to his strong form, I went for an over bet at the time. The Australian is currently having probably his strongest year of tennis.
The 25-year-old is now ranked ninth in the world. He defeated Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic at the United Cup, reached the round of 16 in Melbourne and reached the final in Rotterdam against Sinner after coming out on top against Grigor Dimitrov and Andrey Rublev
Many impressive performances. All the more surprising, then, was his exit in round one against Alex Michelesen in the preparatory tournament for Acapulco in Los Cabos. But five days later he turned up the heat again, beating another star of the scene in Stefanos Tsitsipas.
He also had to deal with Sebastian Ofner, Taro Daniel and Jack Draper. The latter had to retire at 4-0 in the last round. As in the other tournaments, he impressed above all with his powerful return game. After four matches, he has currently won 19 service games.
A figure that should make Ruud gulp. Although he didn’t let anything slip in his service games in his first three matches, he had far more problems against Holger Rune in the semi-finals, giving up a total of three serves in ten chances
In terms of win odds, Happybet has strong odds in tennis. De Minaur is just ahead at 1.60 against Ruud (2.25). In terms of level of play, De Minaur has definitely offered more in 2024.
I also see advantages for the world number 9 in terms of current form, which is why I’m also leaning towards the 1.90 that he not only starts the match, but also the first set like a fire engine
In addition, Winamax offers another huge advantage over other betting providers. You can see in percentages which odds in a market have been played how often by the community. The bet on a tie-break is particularly popular.
A 2.45 awaits – tempting, but not high enough for me. After all, De Minaur and two-set matches rarely include a tiebreak. In his most recent 13 matches, there was only one.
In this respect, I’m actually one of the four percent who have decided against a 7-6 outcome. Incidentally, the two 25-year-olds have only met twice before and the duels took place a long time ago; they last played each other around five years ago at the Next Gen ATP Finals, with De Minaur winning the only hard court duel in a rush.
Ruud feels more comfortable on the red clay, having given De Minaur no chance in their debut clash in Braga in 2018
My De Minaur Ruud tip
De Minaur and Ruud have shown a strong tournament performance in Acapulco. On hard court, however, I see advantages for De Minaur, who was extremely consistent in 2024 and has already defeated some tennis greats: Djokovic, Rublev, Zverev and Tsitsipas.
In addition, he already has 19 breaks after four matches! He is an extremely unpleasant return player who should also make life difficult for Ruud. The Australian also clearly had the upper hand in their first hard court duel.
What’s more, he has already won the first round nine times in his last ten victories.
I therefore opt for De Minaur Ruud in my betting tip: Victory De Minaur Set 1 & Match
