NBA 2022/23, on Wednesday, 10.05.2023
A cursory glance at the NBA champions betting odds is enough to bring to light that not only me, but also the oddsmakers think that the overall winner will emerge from this pairing.
The Suns, meanwhile, tied the series last night with a 129-124 win. I noticed several things that should not be overlooked in a Nuggets-Suns Game 5 betting tip.
The Suns managed to catch up with the Nuggets with their Dream Team after being down 2-0 at one point. Both sides thus won their respective home games, showing once again how important home-field advantage is in the playoffs.
Aside from the fact that the Suns have momentum on their side thanks to back-to-back wins, it’s some additional Game 4 data that makes me particularly confident that the Arizonans will keep their foot on the gas pedal.
The percentage of points coming off their bench already proved crucial in Game 3 & 4, and there’s no reason to think the Suns’ bench players will suddenly degrade tonight.
The Suns’ bench outscored the Nuggets’ 22-20 in the Game 3 win, and Phoenix was outscored 40-11 in that area the night before, despite the fact that Denver is said to have the better second line.
What Denver relies on instead is an indomitable Nikola Jokic who put up over 50 points despite yesterday’s loss. The Suns, however, are developing more and more ways to score especially when the Serb is on the bench.
In the 2022-23 playoffs, Denver outscored their respective opponents by 34 points in the 82 minutes with Jokic on the court, but in Game 4, the time without the All-Star on the court resulted in a 19-11 Suns lead in the first half alone.
So Phoenix knows how to run up the score especially when the Serb needs to take a breath.
Furthermore, Kevin Durant has finally caught fire! It was only a matter of time before the PHX newcomer would ignite. Most recently, in the fourth game of the second round of the playoffs, Durantula showed perfect poise.
So much so, in fact, that Booker and Durant have scored a combined 158 points over the course of the last two games alone, a tremendous explosion of performance that has only happened once before in basketball.
Pay attention: It is, in fact, the highest production by a duo in two consecutive playoff games since 1986, when the legendary Michael Jordan and Orlando Woolridge combined for 161 points in back-to-back games.
Beyond that, I honestly don’t know how Denver is going to improve. After all, Nikola Jokic turned in a performance in Game 4 that simply can’t be topped – and yet it wasn’t enough to win.
The Serbian, in fact, converted 56% of his throws and set a new postseason franchise record with 53 points.
Jokic even became only the fifth player in NBA history to score over 50 points and 10 assists in a postseason match that night.
Of course, the All-Star continues to be a problem for the Suns, but if Denver can’t win despite such a performance, when can they? Especially since you can’t conjure up stats like that on the table every day…
The aforementioned home-field avantage seems to be given a lot of importance in the markets.
However, the injury to veteran Chris Paul is another reason why the bookmakers’ Nuggets Suns odds clearly favor the home side.
Any of the best sports betting apps are trading a DEN win at odds of around 1.50, whereas in the case of Arizona’s third straight win, it’s around 2.60 odds that cross the bookmaker’s counter.
In fact, those very Nuggets Suns odds represent a special reason why I’ll try to capitalize on this perceived miscalculation with an away win bet.
Conclusion: If the reader should take anything away from my Nuggets Suns tip, it’s that Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are working incredibly well together right now.
Jokic, on the other hand, is hitting his performance ceiling, which is quite high, but won’t be enough on its own to take down this concentrated black and purple power – which has also been coming off the bench as of late.
The guests have caught fire in the meantime and will present themselves much better tonight in the Ball Arena than they did at the start of this series.
My Nuggets Suns tip: The guests win again.