NBA Regular Season 2023/24, Monday, 27.11.2023
On Monday night, two in-form teams will face off in the Big Apple, with Phoenix’s elite offense coming up against New York’s strong defense. Excitement is guaranteed at the legendary Madison Square Garden!
My Knicks Suns tip explains why I’m expecting at least 28 points from Devin Booker
The New York Knicks currently have a 9-6 record and have won seven of their last ten games. While the offense is the fourth worst in the league with an average of only 109.5 points, the defense is the second best with only 105.3 points allowed.
The resulting point differential of +4.1 is the seventh best in the league.
No other team allows fewer opposing offensive rebounds (8.1) and shot attempts (82.7) than the New Yorkers led by defensive guru Tom Thibodeau.
On the other hand, only one team has more offensive rebounds than the Knickerbockers.
After a rocky start to the season, the Knicks have found themselves as a unit and have won four of their last five games.
Although they narrowly won their last game at home against their historic arch-rivals from Miami (+2), they have mostly lost out to ambitious teams this season.
The defeats were always against teams that currently have a positive record, while the game against Miami was only the second win against a team with a positive record.
So the Knicks tend to win the games where they’re favorites, but tend to lose the games where they’re not necessarily.
In order to keep up with the Suns’ firepower, Knicks superstar Julius Randle will have to step up. This season has been a statistical nightmare for the two-time All-Star and last year’s All-NBA player.
The big man is converting a miserable 38 % of his 17.2 shots per game (45.9 % last year) and 27.5 % of his 6.1 three-point attempts (34.3 %).
If Randle has another night to forget against the Suns, it will be up to the two congenial guards Jalen Brunson and R.J. Barrett, who lead the East Coasters with 24.2 and 20.5 points per game.
The visitors from Arizona have the seventh-best offense in the NBA with 117.2 points per game and can at least rely on an average defense at the other end of the court (16th with 113.3 points allowed).
The Suns’ point differential of +3.9 is the eighth-best in the Association.
The 2021 finalists are currently in extremely good form, having won their last six games, including against heavyweight Minnesota. However, the remaining five wins have all come against teams with a negative record.
The Knicks’ solid defense will therefore be an unfamiliar test for the brilliant Suns offense led by forward Kevin Durant (31.4 points on 53.3% from the field and an outstanding 52.2% from the three-point line) and guard Devin Booker (29.6, 51.3%, 45.2%).
After being rested in the last game against the stumbling Grizzlies, “Durantula” is expected to be back in the lineup against the Knicks, even if he’s not 100 percent certain to play.
Interestingly, the Suns are much better away from home than at home, having won six of eight games away from home, while their record in Phoenix is just 4-4.
Meanwhile, the Knicks are a current favorite opponent for Phoenix, as the Suns have won nine of the last ten meetings.
However, they suffered a clear 83:102 defeat in the last game at the venerable Madison Square Garden in January 2023
Due to Durant’s possible non-participation, a Suns win is listed with formidable odds of around 2.25 at the top sports betting providers, but if you want to mitigate the risk of this two-way bet a little, you could also give the Suns a positive handicap such as 4.5 (odds of 1.71 to win).
However, I recommend betting on a gala performance by Devin Booker and expecting the guard to score at least 28 points; a possible absence of Durant could increase the probability of this player bet occurring.
After all, Booker has averaged 27.4 points per game against the Knicks in his career to date, and only against three franchises has he scored more on average.
My Knicks Suns bet is therefore: Booker scores at least 28 points!