NBA Playoffs 2022 on Thursday, 05.05.2022
With a look at our Fixture list for the NBA Playoffs it quickly becomes clear that there have been no major surprises in the opening games of the Conference Finals – especially not in the game between the Miami Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers.
The visitors are currently missing a very important man, whose absence is also fundamental for my Heat 76ers tip for Game 2. The Floridians, meanwhile, are in good shape and capable of overrunning the Sixers in the second half at the latest.
It was clear that the Heat would be gunning for DeAndre Jordan in the opener. Because he was replacing none other than the inimitable Joel Embiid at the Sixers’ centre position on Monday.
The Cameroonian, by the way, won’t be able to play again until Game 3 at the earliest, when the series is shipped to Pennsylvania. But by then, the 76ers could easily be down by two games already.
For the Heat successfully implemented their strategy and lived up to their role as favourites in half-time two at the latest. Bam Adebayo, Jordan’s direct counterpart at the five, had an excellent game with 24 points and 12 rebounds.
The only correction I will make to my prediction, incidentally, has to do with the timing of the Floridians’ inevitable tempo tightening! They seem to really blossom, especially after half-time.
From the 3rd quarter onwards, however, the loss of Embiid was most noticeable for the guests. While they were still ahead at the break, the Sixers lost the second half with 41:56.
The Heat are superior to the guests in terms of stamina and collected six offensive rebounds in the 3rd quarter alone, which were subsequently converted into seven second chance points.
From that point on, the home side was more or less in control of the game.
Another aspect of my Heat 76ers prediction from the day before yesterday, which will also play a big role in the further course of the series, has to do with James Harden – especially for the time when Embiid is out.
For The Beard confirmed once again that he can’t grow into a leadership role even when the circumstances call for it. With 16 points 9 rebounds, the guard made a passable but underwhelming playoff game.
After a quick review of what NBA fans were treated to in the first game, I see no reason why the rematch shouldn’t result in another win for the home side – especially since Embiid will continue to be out.
The Floridians also had advantages in the zone and in terms of rebounds – two elementary aspects to win a basketball game. Miami was also ahead in the categories of steals and turnovers.
Only from distance did the Heat show weaknesses as a collective with about 25% of converted threes. However, the Sixers were subterranean in this category! Because with a success rate of 17.6% you don’t win a pot in the playoffs, as we all know.
The leading bookmakers also favour the Floridians on this evening – and I have to say that although I share this assessment, I think the Heat 76ers odds are a bit too one-sided.
A Heat win is currently priced at 1.25, which is a tad too low. On the other hand, another Sixers halftime lead would result in a much higher payout.
Conclusion: There is one important lesson I learned from Game 1 and will take more into account from now on. Namely, the Sixers are capable of holding their own for a half without Joel Embiid before slowly but surely running out of steam.
That said, there should be no significant mismatch in the rematch if we use the opening game as a script. For the Heat were superior in all aspects relevant to a basketball game.
Moreover, DeAndre Jordan continues to be a weak point within the 76ers’ starting five, which the home side will exploit shamelessly. Meanwhile, Philly fans shouldn’t rely too much on a sudden monster performance from James Harden.
My Heat Sixers tip: Miami to finish with at least a six-point lead!
