Preview of the Spanish Grand Prix, Sunday, 22.05.2022
After the spectacle in Miami, Formula 1 returns to Europe. At the Spanish Grand Prix, Ferrari will try to catch up with Red Bull. Because the Red Bulls are the measure of all things at the moment. Max Verstappen drives even more faultlessly and mercilessly than last year.
Meanwhile, it could be a fateful race for Mercedes. For the Silver Arrows, the Spanish GP is a test of their mettle. Because for the first time there is a comparison with the test drives of a few months ago.
Especially in Barcelona, qualifying will be decisive, because the track is not considered to be very overtaking-friendly. Therefore, in my Formula 1 forecast for the Spanish Grand Prix, I again see a duel between the two top teams, Red Bull and Ferrari.
Five races have been run and Barcelona will be a decisive weekend for all teams. Because at the Spanish Grand Prix, the teams will get their first comparative values from the winter tests.
This will show which racing team has analysed and worked best. In addition, a lot of new updates are expected on the track. At the tests in February, Ferrari was the measure of all things.
In the meantime, the tables have turned as the Scuderia is currently dominated by world champion Verstappen. Red Bull seem to have understood the car best and have an advantage over Ferrari.
The car of Perez and Verstappen has more down force due to its aerodynamics, which brings important speed advantages especially on the straights. In addition, the car seems to be more stable over the race distance than the rest of the field – in view of the last races.
Nevertheless, Verstappen is not the favourite with the bookies for the fastest lap in the QF with odds of around 2.20. Although Red Bull made his car even lighter with various updates, it was only enough for Verstappen to finish third in the first free practice.
Ferrari, too, with its new underbody and rear wings, has apparently made the car more aerodynamic, because Leclerc and Sainz ended up in first place. This is another reason why the Monegasque is favourite for pole with odds of around 2.0.
The rest of the field finished with a larger gap, however, it was also evident that the McLaren are getting stronger as both drivers finished in the top 10. The new aero update could probably bring more grip especially in the slow corners.
Especially Norris, who, with the exception of his retirement in Miami, has always finished in the top six in the last races, could benefit from this. There are odds of around 1.95 for a top six finish for the Briton.
This weekend will be a race of destiny for Mercedes. Lewis Hamilton in particular, who fell behind Russell in the first free practice session, is struggling with the car.
Meanwhile, there is a sense of optimism at Aston Martin, with talk of a half-new car due to a very major update. However, in the first practice session at least, none of the drivers finished in the top 10.
With this track, qualifying will be especially important. After all, 23 of 31 races have been won from pole position, which is mainly due to the track layout. Because with only one long straight at the start and finish, overtaking is very difficult.
On top of that, the track is a real challenge, because it has the whole range of corners. Because with super-fast but also very slow bends, the extremely strong tyres are put under strain. So especially the tricky sectors will be decisive for success.
Therefore, the Spanish GP is also a very good test for Formula 1, which will show whether the new technical regulations will lead to more duels and overtaking manoeuvres.
Conclusion: In the battle for pole, Ferrari could easily have the edge here. Because the slow and medium-fast corners suit the Ferrari just as well as Red Bull, if not even better.
Therefore, it depends entirely on the drivers’ form on the day which team will start the race from the very front. The momentum is clearly on Max Verstappen’s side. In addition, it has often been shown in the past that the RB18B is the stronger car over the race distance.
Therefore, my tip for the qualifying of the Spanish GP is: Verstappen takes pole.
