Key Facts
- The U.S. has conceded a goal in each of its last five friendly matches; the unresolved Turner-Freese situation therefore affects more than just the starting lineup.
- Paraguay has scored in five consecutive friendlies, and Enciso, Sanabria, and Almirón continue to provide Alfaro with pace and danger on the counterattack.
- The USA has won the last three head-to-head matches by narrow margins; all remained under 3.5 goals, and Paraguay did not score after halftime.
- Paraguay will be without Fabián Balbuena and Damián Bobadilla, which means Alfaro will have to adjust his defensive structure and the balance in midfield.
- The Over 2.5 Goals bet is based on the US averaging more than three total goals per game and Paraguay having scored in five of their last five matches.
- Christian Pulisic is expected to support Folarin Balogun in a 4-2-3-1 formation; this attacking threat contrasts with a defense that has been vulnerable lately.
A single unresolved personnel issue is shaping the U.S.’s World Cup opener more than Mauricio Pochettino would like: Matt Freese or Matt Turner—who will start in goal? At SoFi Stadium, the hosts kick off on Saturday (UTC), Friday evening in California, in Group D against Paraguay, whose play under Gustavo Alfaro has looked compact, tough to handle, and recently relevant in tournaments again. The U.S. comes off a lively but inconsistent international break, with a 3-2 win over Senegal followed by a 2-1 loss to Germany. Paraguay responded to its own defeat in March against Morocco with a 4-0 win over Nicaragua.
- Venue: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
- Date and Time: June 13, 2026, 3:00 a.m.
- Competition: World Cup (Group Stage – 1)
The bookmakers have the USA as clear favorites, but the real value lies in a more nuanced analysis. The Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score: Yes markets are supported by the hosts’ recent open-play friendlies and Paraguay’s scoring in five consecutive matches.
USA Form & Record Check
The 2-1 friendly loss to Germany was almost equally useful and concerning. Antonee Robinson’s first-half goal showcased the threat down the wings that Pochettino wants to see, but conceding an early goal once again kept the same defensive question alive. The U.S. has now conceded a goal in each of its last five friendlies, a pattern that makes the goalkeeper decision seem like more than just a cosmetic change. Recent friendly form is not without merit, however, as the 3-2 win over Senegal showed resilience and the 5-1 victory over Uruguay hinted at a higher level of performance.
At the same time, the losses to Belgium and Portugal exposed the back line as soon as the press was broken. The return of Chris Richards to full training helps, and with Tyler Adams and Antonee Robinson also training fully, the midfield and left side should have gained the necessary sharpness.
The U.S. could line up in a 4-2-3-1, though Mauricio Pochettino is still weighing his options for goalkeeper. Matt Turner, number 1, is likely to have a slight edge over Matt Freese, even if this decision remains open. The defensive line is shaping up with Chris Richards, number 3, and Tim Ream, number 13, behind Tyler Adams, number 4, and Weston McKennie, number 8. Up front, Christian Pulisic, number 10, is expected to support Folarin Balogun, number 20. No injuries have been reported.
Paraguay Form & Record Check
Paraguay’s 4-0 win over Nicaragua was exactly the kind of final warm-up match Gustavo Alfaro likely wanted: controlled, direct, and good for confidence. Kaku scored from the spot, Miguel Almirón added another before halftime, and late goals from Matías Galarza and Alexandro Maidana underscored the depth of the offensive options. It wasn’t a top-tier opponent, but the rhythm was important. Their overall friendly form appears unhurried but thoroughly convincing, with wins against Greece and Mexico alongside losses to Morocco and the U.S. Paraguay has scored in each of its last five friendlies, but Fabián Balbuena and Damián Bobadilla are listed as out, which slightly alters the balance in Alfaró’s setup. Julio Enciso, Antonio Sanabria, and Miguel Almirón still give the team real threat on the counterattack.
Paraguay could start in an expected 4-3-3 formation, with Roberto Fernández, No. 1, in goal and Gustavo Gómez, No. 15, anchoring the defensive line alongside Omar Alderete, No. 3, should the backline be reshuffled. Andrés Cubas, No. 14, and Diego Gómez, No. 8, appear central to the balance in Gustavo Alfaro’s midfield. Concerns surround the unconfirmed injury list, which includes Fabián Balbuena, number 5, out with a thigh injury, and Damián Bobadilla, number 16, sidelined with knee problems. In this scenario, Júnior Alonso and Braian Ojeda are expected to step in, while Miguel Almirón, number 10, Antonio Sanabria, number 9, and Julio Enciso, number 19, are expected to lead the attack.
USA – Paraguay Head-to-Head & Statistics
The results of the last three available head-to-head matches all followed the same pattern. The USA beat Paraguay 2-1 in November 2025, following 1-0 victories in 2018 and at the 2016 Copa América. This gives the hosts a three-game winning streak in this matchup, though the margins were narrow each time. The pattern has more to do with control than with offensive firepower. The U.S. scored in the first half of all three matches, Paraguay conceded a goal before halftime in each game, and every match had fewer than 3.5 goals. Interestingly, Paraguay did not score after halftime in this sample, which supports the theory that the score could once again be a major factor.
