Tennis Today – Matches from Aug. 31
I’m happy with my results from yesterday: Four out of six picks were successful, including even a correct set bet! My US Open picks for today—the second day of the first round—are once again a hand-picked set of six.
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Tennis Picks Today – August 31, 2026: Round 1 in New York!
My US Open picks today will have to do without the GOAT from now on. That’s because yesterday, for the first time in over 20 years, Djokovic was eliminated in the opening round of a Grand Slam tournament.
But I’m not letting that spoil my mood for long, since there are still plenty of good opportunities to place smart value bets—and there’s German representation on the schedule today, Monday, as well.
While I didn’t include Hanfmann vs. Tabilo in my 6-match selection, I’ve dedicated an entire article to this matchup. You can check it out anytime via the link provided!
US Open Picks Today, Aug. 31: Tsitsipas – Fils (5:00 p.m.)
Tsitsipas has had some nasty slip-ups on hard courts this year and seems surprisingly vulnerable on defense. And Fils? The Frenchman is pure dynamite on hard courts and just won the Cincinnati Masters.
He hits the ball extremely far forward on his returns, whips his forehand flat over the net, and unnerves every opponent with his relentless aggression.
Tsitsipas’s backhand immediately flies high under pressure from Fils. If the Greek can’t keep the rallies ultra-short, the Frenchman will completely take control of the rally starting in the second set.
My pick: The Frenchman could soon be in the running for a major title!
US Open bets tonight: Safiullin – Alcaraz (7:00 p.m.)
The bookmakers have the Spanish superstar at sky-high odds, but from a pure betting perspective, this match is extremely tricky.
Alcaraz hasn’t played a singles match on the tour since April due to injury. After a four-month break from competition, he risks showing noticeable rust in his movement on the hard court.
On the other hand, Safiullin is an unpredictable wild card. The Russian fires shots from the baseline with an extremely flat trajectory—exactly the kind of fast-paced tennis that already handed Alcaraz a straight-set defeat in Paris in 2023.
Safiullin has a perfect 3-0 record in his opening match at the US Open. If his serve is on point, he’ll drive the ball deep into the corners against Alcaraz, leaving the defending champion little time to prepare for his powerful forehand.
In a best-of-five match, Alcaraz’s class will ultimately prevail, but the Spaniard is unlikely to get through this one without a few wobbles. Safiullin definitely has what it takes to steal at least one set.
My pick: Alcaraz needs time to find his rhythm!
US Open today: Vacherot – Kovacevic (5:00 p.m.)
Although Valentin Vacherot is the slight favorite on paper as a top-30 seeded player, this starting position is of little use to him given his current fitness level. He still doesn’t seem to be at his best or sufficiently in sync, which gives Aleksandar Kovacevic the best of chances.
If the American plays up to his potential, he has everything it takes to consistently exploit his opponent’s physical shortcomings and win the match.
My pick: Odds of 2 for a Kovacevic win are strong!
US Open Prediction Today: Arnaldi – Duckworth (7:00 p.m.)
Although Duckworth clearly had the better preparation program leading up to the US Open Series, his recent knee and leg injury—which forced him to retire in the semifinals at Winston-Salem—overshadows all his training progress.
This gives Matteo Arnaldi, who is higher in the rankings, a noticeable advantage.
Even though the Italian has been struggling with his form lately, he still possesses the physical stamina and technical skills to put a physically compromised Duckworth under serious pressure.
My pick: Duckworth isn’t at 100 percent!
US Open Bets Today, August 31: Berrettini vs. Wawrinka (9:00 p.m.)
Just two months ago, the Italian swept aside the 41-year-old Swiss in four straight sets at Wimbledon—and on the Flushing Meadows hard courts, the balance of power hasn’t shifted much.
While Wawrinka’s one-handed backhand belongs in the tennis hall of fame, the veteran simply can’t hold his own against Berrettini’s raw power on serve in a best-of-five match.
As soon as Stan dives after the Italian’s first serve bomb, he’ll quickly run out of steam in the extreme heat of New York. Wawrinka might snatch a set on a wave of emotion, but that’s all he can hope for against Berrettini.
My pick: Wawrinka’s age is holding him back!
US Open picks tonight: Borges – Tien (11:30 p.m.)
The “head-to-head stats” speak for themselves: The 20-year-old American Tien leads the head-to-head series 2-0—and swept Borges in straight sets this year at the Australian Open on the same hard-court surface.
I took a close look at the data on service efficiency on hard courts:
Tien is the epitome of a wall at the baseline. He wins 55% of his points on his second serve and serves significantly more consistently than the Portuguese player.
Although Borges is extremely aggressive with his forehand during rallies, the world No. 41 regularly overplays his hand on hard courts against Tien’s vicious, defensive transition game. The young American wears Borges down with his patience and coldly exploits his home-court advantage.
My prediction: Tien could even pull off a straight-sets 3-0 victory!
