ATP Tournament in Bastad, Round of 16 on Thursday, July 16, 2026, 10:00 a.m.
Shortly after Wimbledon, in order to successfully clear a good sports betting bonus, I set my sights on a very specific Rublev vs. Pellegrino tip. That’s because the Round of 16 in Bastad could hold a little surprise for the supposed favorite!
For example, the Russian is completely out of form and has lost four of his last five matches—including one against Kokkinakis, who is ranked a mere 460th in the ATP world rankings. So Pellegrino has a real chance here!
Rublev vs. Pellegrino AI Predictions:
We’ve also fine-tuned our data model for tennis matches, and I really like the Rublev vs. Pellegrino AI prediction because it reaches the same conclusion as I do: there’s “value” in the Pellegrino odds.
From a purely mathematical standpoint, placing a bet on Pellegrino to win at odds of around 3.70 actually makes a great deal of sense, since I estimate the Russian’s chances of winning at no more than 60%.
The Italian has already secured a very convincing first-round victory in Bastad and, with his precise baseline shots and clay-court advantage, could pose major problems for Rublev as well.
Predicted probability of winning:
| Rublev to win |
Pellegrino to win |
| 61.5% |
38.5% |
I also have a slightly bolder Rublev vs. Pellegrino pick in mind, which also offers a very good risk-reward ratio. Because if you’re willing to take risks for high returns, then a set bet on Pellegrino to win 2-0 at 7.10 could be just the thing for you!
The Italian is right at home on clay; he won in Perugia in 2025 and reached the semifinals there this year. With his solid baseline game, he could force Rublev into long rallies!
What to Keep in Mind When Betting on Rublev vs. Pellegrino
- Pellegrino’s First-Round Masterclass: In his opening match against Norwegian youngster Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, Andrea Pellegrino shone in a straight-sets 6-3, 6-2 victory with tremendous efficiency on his first serve—he won an impressive 75% of points on his first serve (24 out of 32) and clinically converted 4 out of 5 break points.
- Clay-Court Resilience in Rome: The Italian proved he can rise to the occasion on clay in May 2026 at the Rome Masters, where he defeated top players Luca Nardi and Frances Tiafoe in succession before finally falling to world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the round of 16.
- Rublev’s Cold-Start Risk: While Pellegrino is already fully in his rhythm and has a successful doubles match (a win alongside Vavassori) under his belt in Bastad, this will be Andrey Rublev’s very first match of the tournament after receiving a first-round bye.
- The Wimbledon Wound: Rublev is traveling to Sweden with a bitter disappointment weighing on him; in his last tournament appearance at Wimbledon, he was eliminated in the first round after a dramatic five-set thriller against Roman Safiullin.
