Key Facts
- Mallorca is just one point above the relegation zone; Son Moix will be the decisive stage in a crucial home run under coach Demichelis.
- Real Madrid comes in with five straight wins, having played in all of them, but also conceding goals in four of those five matches—a pattern that gives Mallorca hope.
- Vedat Muriqi (18 league goals) is Mallorca’s most reliable striker against top opponents; Madrid’s starting goalkeeper Courtois is out with an injury, which boosts Mallorca’s chances.
- Madrid will be without the suspended Federico Valverde and the injured Rodrygo; Vinicius Junior could be rested with an eye on the Bayern game, which influences Arbeloa’s lineup decisions.
- The last five head-to-head matches all ended with under 3.5 goals and featured low-scoring first halves—this matchup rarely turns out to be spectacular.
- The +1.5 handicap for Mallorca makes statistical sense: Madrid’s away wins are often narrow and controlled, and Mallorca’s recent losses have also come by slim margins.
With Bayern Munich already on the horizon on Tuesday, Álvaro Arbeloa leads Real Madrid into a sold-out Son Moix, leaving little room for tactical conservatism. Madrid arrives on the back of five straight wins, most recently a 3-2 derby victory over Atlético, while Mallorca, under Martín Demichelis, kicks off a crucial three-game home stretch.
- Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca
- Date and time: April 4, 2026, 4:15 PM
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 30)
Arbeloa’s team has won five games in a row, while Mallorca has conceded in five consecutive matches. However, Thibaut Courtois is out, Vedat Muriqi offers the hosts a real scoring threat, and Madrid could very well rotate the squad or rest players ahead of the Bayern game. Both teams to score: Yes, and Mallorca +1.5 handicap therefore remains an attractive option.
Mallorca Form & Record Check
Mallorca went into the break frustrated after their 2-1 loss to Elche, a game they briefly had under control after Pablo Torre scored and Zito Luvumbo opened up the play, before conceding twice in thirteen chaotic minutes. This pattern is telling: Under Demichelis, there have been flashes of improvement, but defensive stability still collapses too quickly in the second half as soon as matches open up. There is still reason for hope, however: Under Demichelis, they secured a draw at Osasuna and a home win against Espanyol, and Vedat Muriqi remains the clear focal point in attack with 18 league goals.
With just a one-point lead over Elche, Son Moix must now become the decisive factor.
Probable lineups (predictions, unconfirmed): Mallorca in a possible 4-2-3-1 with Leo Román in goal; back four of Pablo Maffeo (23), Antonio Raíllo (21), Martin Valjent (24), and Johan Mojica (22). Samú Costa (12) and Omar Mascarell (5) as the double six; Pablo Torre (20) as the link-up player behind Vedat Muriqi (7); Zito Luvumbo (15) and Mateo Joseph (18) as wing options. Jan Salas remains sidelined. Real Madrid also in a projected 4-2-3-1: Andriy Lunin (13) replaces the injured Courtois, Trent Alexander-Arnold (12), Antonio Rüdiger (22), Dean Huijsen (24), and Fran García (20) in defense; Aurélien Tchouaméni (14) and Eduardo Camavinga (6) in front of the defense; Jude Bellingham (5) as an attacking midfielder behind Kylian Mbappé (10); Arda Güler (15) and Brahim Díaz (21) in the wide positions. Rodrygo is out, Vinicius could start on the bench. These lineups and Arbeloa’s personnel decisions will be decisive in determining whether Madrid conserves energy or goes all out.
Real Form & Record Check
Real Madrid heads to Palma following their 3-2 derby win against Atlético; Vinicius Junior was instrumental, and Kylian Mbappé is fit again after his knee issue. However, Federico Valverde is suspended following his late red card, and Thibaut Courtois remains injured, which is why Arbeloa is already weighing how much energy he wants to save for the Bayern game. Their recent form is strong: Madrid has won five games in a row (Celta Vigo, Elche, Manchester City twice, and Atlético) and scored in every one of those matches. The defense remains a concern: they’ve conceded goals in four of those five games, so Mallorca has a chance if there’s rotation, especially if Vinicius or other key players are rested.
Real Madrid is expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, though this is only a prediction and not a confirmed starting lineup. Andriy Lunin – 13 is expected to replace the injured Thibaut Courtois, while Trent Alexander-Arnold – 12, Antonio Rüdiger – 22, Dean Huijsen – 24, and Fran García – 20 are likely to form the back four. [2] In midfield, Aurélien Tchouaméni – 14 and Eduardo Camavinga – 6 are expected to start as defensive midfielders, especially since Federico Valverde is suspended and Dani Ceballos is unavailable. Ahead of them, Jude Bellingham – 5 could play as a number 10 behind Kylian Mbappé – 10, while Arda Güler – 15 and Brahim Díaz – 21 move into the center from the wings. Rodrygo is also out, and Vinicius Junior may only come off the bench.
Mallorca – Real Head-to-Head & Statistics
The head-to-head record between the teams clearly favors Madrid. In their last five meetings, the Royals are unbeaten: four wins and one draw. The last two matches both ended 2-1 in Madrid’s favor (August 2025 and May 2025); prior to that, there was a 3-0 win in the 2025 Super Cup, a 1-1 draw in the 2024 league, and a 1-0 league victory. Notably: In all five games, the total number of goals remained under 3.5, and in four consecutive matches, fewer than 1.5 goals were scored in the first half. Madrid scored in all five games, while Mallorca conceded in all five—a clear pattern of pressure from the visitors, but rarely a game that gets completely out of hand in this matchup.
