Key Facts
- Bologna are ninth (30 points), just two behind Lazio and one ahead of Udinese; Milan are second (47), eight behind Inter and just one ahead of Napoli.
- The 3-0 Euroleague win with goals from Rowe, Orsolini and Pobega gives Bologna momentum, but in five games they have always scored, conceding four goals in four.
- Lucumí’s thigh problem takes Bologna’s regular center back out of action; Milan will have to do without Pulisic, Gimenez, and Saelemaekers, giving Leão and Füllkrug more responsibility.
- Milan is unbeaten in its last five league games, but its championship chase is suffering from too many draws; Maignan often keeps them in the game, and they have always scored after the break.
- The head-to-head record is even (2-2-1), often with few goals before the break; after three H2H with over 2.5 goals and odds of 2.2 on Milan, “BTTS”/over 2.5 remains plausible.
You can still feel why this duel at the Dall’Ara has a special edge: FC Bologna remembers all too well their 1-0 victory in last season’s Coppa Italia final, while AC Milan won the league duel 1-0 in September. On Tuesday, February 3, Bologna welcomes the visitors for Matchday 23 of the regular Serie A season. Vincenzo Italiano has a team that can be difficult to play against in this stadium, and Massimiliano Allegri arrives in the midst of a Scudetto chase where every slip-up is costly. In the table, FC Bologna is in 9th place with 30 points, two points behind Lazio and one point ahead of Udinese – every result counts. Their recent league record has fallen short of expectations, with defeats outnumbering victories. AC Milan are in 2nd place with 47 points, eight points behind Inter and one point ahead of Napoli, and the recent 1-1 draw at Roma underlined how costly small lapses in concentration can be. Bologna are coming off a 3-0 win in the Europa League with goals from Rowe, Orsolini, and Pobega, but Lucumí is missing. AC Milan have Maignan under contract until 2031, but injuries to Pulisic, Gimenez, and Saelemaekers are hurting – and that’s another reason why the visitors are favored by the bookmakers, while also respecting the possibility of a draw.
- Venue: Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna
- Date and time: February 3, 2026, 8:45 p.m.
- Competition: Serie A (matchday 23)
With this in mind, it’s worth taking a look at how the betting market rates the whole thing. The market makes AC Milan the clear away favorites, listed at 2.2 compared to 3.5 for Bologna, and I continue to lean toward this assessment, as Milan is undefeated in 2026, Bologna will be without Lucumí, and Maignan—fresh off a new five-year contract—often makes the difference.
FC Bologna form & record check
Bologna brings with it a useful dose of European confidence: the 3-0 win at Maccabi Tel Aviv looked controlled, with Rowe and Orsolini scoring before Pobega sealed the result late on. However, the 2-2 draw at home to Celtic pointed to a familiar flaw, with good attacking phases followed by lapses as soon as the game opens up. Italiano’s team looks sharper when it sets the pace. This rhythm has not always carried over to Serie A. The picture in the league is mixed. They beat Verona 3-2 with an attacking mentality, then lost 2-1 to Fiorentina and were narrowly defeated 3-2 by Genoa despite scoring twice. What they have in common is a lack of defensive control, allowing too many free chances when the pressing is outplayed. The attack can save games, but it cannot permanently cover the gaps. That is why points have been dropped away from home. In all competitions, there have been more than 2.5 goals in each of their last five games, they have scored in every game, but conceded in four of them. Interestingly, there have been no balanced halves, with games quickly tipping in one direction or the other, and they often score in the second half. In 9th place with 30 points, just 2 behind Lazio and 1 ahead of Udinese, they cannot afford to be lax defensively, especially with Lucumí still missing.
Bologna are expected to stick with Italiano’s 4-3-3, with Skorupski in goal behind a back four of Zortea, Vitík, Casale, and Miranda. In midfield, Moro is likely to form the base, Freuler providing control and Ferguson acting as the main runner and link to the front three of Orsolini, Castro, and Rowe, in a more aggressive, possession-oriented setup. The big question mark is Lucumi’s thigh problem, which is likely to rule him out and move Casale into central defense alongside Vitík, with Heggem and Helland standing by as cover. As expected, Bologna will press high, with Moro covering counterattacks and Ferguson popping up late in the box, while Orsolini remains the main one-on-one threat. Dallinga and Bernardeschi look like the first attacking substitutes.
AC Milan Form & Record Check
On the other hand, AC Milan travels to Bologna and sits in second place in Serie A with 47 points. Their form in the league seems more consistent than spectacular, unbeaten in their last five games, but still eight points behind Inter and only one ahead of Napoli. Under Allegri, there is a distinct sense of control and risk management, but the championship chase is paying the price for too many draws. The 1-1 draw in Rome sums up both sides of this team well. They weathered early pressure, Maignan’s work kept them in the game, then De Winter headed home the opener, Modrić providing the assist. However, the equalizer from the spot after Bartesaghi’s handball underscored a recurring problem: small defensive lapses can undo long periods of decent football. Previously, Lecce were beaten 1-0, a game that AC Milan largely controlled but needed more sharpness to decide earlier. The 3-1 win at Como was the most convincing offensive performance of this series, with better tempo after the break. Against Fiorentina, it ended 1-1, and against Genoa at San Siro, it was also 1-1, games in which AC Milan had enough to avoid problems but not always enough to dominate. There are revealing patterns: the first half was often subdued, there were many draws at halftime, and AC Milan has scored in the second half in each of its last five league games. Four of those five games had fewer than 2.5 goals, so the margins are small. With Pulisic and Gimenez out and Saelemaekers also missing, the burden on Leão and Füllkrug to create space has only grown.
Allegri is likely to stick with a 3-5-2 formation, with Maignan behind a back three of Tomori, Gabbia, and De Winter. The formation relies on wing-backs to provide width, with Athekame on the right and Estupiñán on the left, while Ricci, Fofana, and Rabiot should set the pace and secure the transitions through the middle. Up front, this prediction sees Nkunku behind Leão, a pairing that relies more on quick combinations than on a pure target player. AC Milan are likely to be without Pulisic, Gimenez, and Saelemaekers, so the bench options lean more towards Füllkrug as a direct striker, with Modrić or Loftus Cheek if Allegri wants additional control in midfield.
FC Bologna – AC Milan Head-to-Head Comparison & Statistics
The head-to-head comparison fits well with this tense picture: over the last five encounters, the series is completely balanced, with two wins and one draw each, although AC Milan narrowly leads in total goals scored, 7 to 6. The most recent match in September 2025 was decided by a 1-0 win for AC Milan, while the only draw in 2024 was a 2-2 tie, showing how close this rivalry can be. If there is a pattern emerging, it is patience. Four of the five games were tied at halftime, and four had fewer than 1.5 goals in the first half. FC Bologna has scored in four consecutive head-to-head matches, each time in the second half, suggesting their ability to grow into the game. However, AC Milan has also conceded goals after the break in four consecutive games. Recent results have oscillated between close decisions and open second halves. FC Bologna’s 1-0 Coppa Italia final victory in May 2025 was the cleanest game of the series, but AC Milan responded with a 3-1 win in the league that same month. It is noteworthy that over 2.5 total goals have been scored in three consecutive encounters. FC Bologna will be without Lucumí for the next game, while Saelemaekers, Pulisic, and Gimenez are listed as absent for AC Milan.
