Key Facts
- Real Madrid (51 points) are chasing Barcelona in second place, just one point behind; Rayo (22) are 16th, just one point above the relegation zone.
- Five league wins in a row and goals in every game underline Madrid’s rhythm; in the last five games, more than 1.5 goals were scored in each game.
- The 4-2 defeat at Benfica, despite two goals from Mbappé, showed how fragile Madrid’s makeshift defense is; Militão, Rüdiger, Mendy, and Alexander-Arnold are still out.
- Rayo has conceded goals in each of its last five games and has not had a draw; after stable first halves, their games often open up after the break.
- Draws dominate the head-to-head record: there have been four draws in the last five meetings, including a 0-0 draw in Vallecas in November.
- At odds of 1.3, Madrid are clear favorites, but the tips favor goals: Rayo scored in the last two despite defeats, and 80% of their games went over 2.5.
The pressure in the title race is palpable again at the Bernabéu: Real Madrid go into matchday 22 in second place with 51 points, just one point behind Barcelona and seven ahead of Atlético Madrid. On Sunday, February 1, Álvaro Arbeloa’s team welcomes Iñigo Pérez’s Rayo Vallecano, who are in 16th place with 22 points after their 1-3 defeat to Osasuna – level on points with Alavés above them and Getafe below them – and thus far from last season’s European qualification spot. The 0-0 draw in Vallecas in November showed how close this Madrid derby can be, with four of the last five encounters ending in a draw. Madrid may be on a five-game winning streak in the league, but the 4-2 defeat at Benfica in midweek, despite two goals from Mbappé, and the absences of Militão, Rüdiger, and Mendy raise questions about the team’s freshness.
- Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
- Date and time: February 1, 2026, 2:00 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (matchday 22)
The market sees Madrid as the clear home favorite at odds of 1.3 – what is more exciting is how they will win and how messy the game could get. After the 4-2 defeat to Benfica, which reinforced Arbeloa’s demands and exposed the thinly staffed defense, Madrid’s stronger bench suggests a boost after the break. At the same time, Rayo’s recent scoring success despite defeats suggests that both teams can score, which should push the game towards over 2.5 goals.
Real Form & Record Check
In La Liga, Real Madrid are in second place with 51 points, one point behind Barcelona and already seven ahead of Atletico Madrid. Five consecutive wins keep the pressure on in the title race, and the numbers point to a familiar rhythm: they have scored in every game recently, and their games tend to open up after the break, with more than 1.5 goals in total in each of the last five. The 2-0 win at Villarreal was a mature away performance, not spectacular but controlled, with Madrid closing down the transitions and punishing spaces when they appeared. Before that, Levante were beaten 2-0 at the Bernabéu, again with a calm defensive base and an effective second half. Expectations are high, but their league performance has matched them. Outside the league, the picture looks shakier. Madrid were knocked out of the Copa del Rey in Albacete, losing 3-2 in a game that showed how open they can become when the tempo becomes chaotic. This was followed by a 4-2 defeat at Benfica in the Champions League, where Benfica ran 10 kilometers more, Madrid conceded a penalty, and late red cards for Asencio and Rodrygo underscored a loss of control, even though Mbappé scored twice. Arbeloa is still searching for the right balance between allowing Vinicius and Mbappé to play high up the pitch and having enough presence in midfield to protect a makeshift defense. Militão, Rüdiger, and Mendy remain sidelined, and Alexander-Arnold is expected to return soon, so the margins are tighter than the table suggests.
The aftermath of the Benfica game is also having an impact in Europe, with Asencio and Rodrygo suspended for the first leg of the Champions League playoffs.
Arbeloa is likely to stick with a 4-3-3, with Courtois behind Carvajal, Asencio, Huijsen, and Carreras. In midfield, Valverde and Tchouaméni should balance out Bellingham’s roaming runs, while Mbappé acts as a target man up front, Vinicius attacks the left channel, and Rodrygo drifts in from the right. This is a prediction, not a confirmed starting lineup. The defensive picture is dominated by injuries, with Militão out, Rüdiger still sidelined, and Mendy and Alexander-Arnold also unavailable, so the full-back positions are likely to be filled by Carvajal and Carreras, with García an alternative on the left. Alaba and Camavinga seem to be the most important options for change if Arbeloa wants more control in the build-up. Asencio and Rodrygo are suspended for the Champions League first leg in Lisbon.
Rayo Form & Record Check
Rayo come to the Bernabéu in 16th place in the table with 22 points, and the table is mercilessly tight around them, level on points with Alavés above and Getafe below. After a relatively stable first half of the season, the tide has turned against them and they go into this derby one point above the relegation zone. There is no room for passive performances now. The recent run has been tough. In La Liga, a 2-1 win over Mallorca was followed by a 3-0 defeat at Celta Vigo, then another slip-up at home to Osasuna, losing 3-1 in a game that turned late when Ciss briefly equalized before an own goal from Vertrouwd and another goal in stoppage time sealed the deal. In between, Alavés beat them 2-0 in the Copa del Rey, knocking them out of the competition. What is striking is their lack of control; they have not had a draw in their last five games and have conceded goals in each of them, often early on. It is also noticeable that most first halves have seen fewer than 1.5 goals before the games open up after the break. Iñigo Pérez has tried to revitalize the offense with loan players Akhomach and Carlos Martín, but defensive stability is hard to find, especially with Mumin still out.
Pérez is expected to stick with his familiar 4-2-3-1, with Batalla likely in goal behind a back four of Rațiu, Lejeune, Luiz Felipe, and Chavarría. Interestingly, Mumin remains sidelined for the long term, so the center-back pairing should remain unchanged as predicted, rather than being rotated. Valentín and Díaz look likely to form a double pivot to keep the block compact. Ahead of them, Palazón is likely to be the creative reference between the lines once again, while de Frutos and García will provide width and take on most of the direct runs. Alemão is expected to start as striker, with the task of tying up Madrid’s center backs and attacking early crosses. Should Rayo need to change the rhythm, Trejo, Akhomach, or Camello would be the most likely options, but that remains a prediction, not a confirmed starting lineup.
Real – Rayo Head-to-Head & Statistics
Real Madrid has the slight edge in the last five meetings, with one win and four draws. The most recent match in November 2025 ended 0-0 at Rayo. In March 2025, Madrid secured their only victory, 2-1. Before that, the score was 3-3 in 2024, 1-1 in 2024, and 0-0 in 2023.
