Only one point separates Werder Bremen and 1. FC Cologne, who now face each other in a direct battle for ninth place in the table. Both teams are coming off recent setbacks, are safely mid-table, and know that this game will set the tone for the coming weeks. Werder lost 2-0 in Leipzig, ending a run of five games without defeat. Coach Horst Steffen had previously stabilized his team, but they lacked the necessary punch against the league leaders, so now it’s a matter of not letting the positive trend come to a complete halt and quickly regaining confidence.
Cologne suffered a painful setback at home with a 3-4 defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt and have conceded seven goals in their last two games, so their defensive problems are clear. Center backs Hübers and Kilian are out for the rest of the season, Schmied is injured, and Ache is missing after a collision in training. As a result, Rav van den Berg, the $10 million summer signing, could make a surprise move into the starting lineup, even though a cautious build-up was actually planned after his two-month shoulder injury. Historically, the record slightly favors Bremen, who won the last two encounters, most recently 1-0 in February 2024, and have won two of the last five meetings, with Cologne winning one.
- Venue: Weserstadion, Bremen
- Date and time: November 29, 2025, 3:30 p.m.
- Competition: Bundesliga (Matchday 12)
The betting market sees Bremen narrowly ahead with odds of around 2.3, but the data suggests alternatives. A double chance on Bremen, i.e., a win or a draw, offers a conservative hedge. For risk-taking players, an away win for Cologne at around 2.9 could be considered good value, because Cologne remains dangerous in attack despite its crisis. From a data-driven perspective, the most attractive tip is over 1.5 goals
The reasoning starts with the defensive situation of both teams, both of which are playing with severely depleted defenses. Bremen is missing several defenders, and Van den Berg is being brought back earlier than planned after his rehab. Cologne is struggling away from home, but is not without chances defensively and has scored in 80% of its recent games. The timing of the goals is also striking: Bremen scored exclusively or predominantly in the second half in four of their last five games, while Cologne has repeatedly conceded goals after the break in recent games, including seven goals in the last two games. This accumulation of late goals supports the tip Over 1.5 goals
Specific betting recommendations based on risk profile can be summarized as follows: conservative Double Chance Bremen, i.e., win or draw, to protect against outliers in the shaky defense; balanced and data-based Over 1.5 goals – 2nd half, based on the clear second-half patterns of both teams; bold Cologne away win at 2.9 as a value play, provided you trust the offensive statistics and Cologne’s scoring rate. When placing your bet, it is a good idea to stagger your stakes, for example, 60% of your budget on the conservative pick, 30% on the balanced option, and 10% on the bold tip. This weighting can be adjusted depending on your personal risk appetite. It is important never to bet more than you are prepared to lose. Short-term factors such as lineups, substitutions, red cards, or weather can have a significant impact on the course of the game, so the starting lineup and late withdrawals should be checked before placing a bet. In addition, odds change quickly, so value should only be taken after checking the current market. Overall, the data-based sweet spot clearly remains the tip Over 1.5 goals – 2.
Werder Form & Record Check
Werder is in ninth place with 15 points, level on points with Union and one point ahead of Cologne. The 0-2 defeat in Leipzig ended a series of five games without defeat, in which Bremen had recorded two wins and two draws. The half-time pattern is striking: in the last five games, Werder did not score in the first 45 minutes and was never in the lead at half-time; in four of these five games, Bremen only scored after the break. Around 80% of their recent offensive output has come in the second half, which makes the team dangerous late on but leaves them vulnerable in the early stages.
This late awakening did not work in Leipzig, with Ouedraogo and Schlager scoring after the break and Bremen losing 2-0. Against Wolfsburg and Union, late goals decided the games in Bremen’s favor, once again underlining their dependence on late action. The squad is severely depleted defensively, with Wöber, Agu, Deman, and Weiser all missing, and Malatini suffering a torn muscle fiber. The defense looks improvised, and goalkeeper Backhaus is holding the defense together with strong performances. Against a direct competitor like Cologne, who are only one point behind, this repeated failure to get off to a good start could prove costly. Cologne are unlikely to show any mercy, so Werder will need more punch and defensive stability in the first half.
In the short term, there are a few adjustments that can be made without disrupting the basic structure. Earlier, more targeted pressing and a more variable starting lineup could help reduce the team’s reliance on the second half. As long as defensive personnel are missing, conservative coverage in central defense and clear assignments on set pieces are important. In addition, earlier substitutions before the 60th minute could bring additional momentum. Overall, Werder has proven that the team can turn games around, but the weak starts after halftime and the many absences make the duel with Cologne a real test of risk. Without adjustments in the early stages, there is a threat of losing points against a direct rival.
Werder are likely to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation, with Backhaus in goal, a back four of Sugawara, Stark, Coulibaly, and Friedl in front of him. Lynen and Stage are planned as the double six in central midfield, with Mbangula, Puertas, and Schmid forming the attacking trio in front of them and Boniface as the lone striker. However, the defense is severely weakened, with Agu, Deman, Wöber, and Weiser all out with injuries. In addition, Malatini suffered a torn muscle fiber in his thigh during training and is unavailable. Friedl and Sugawara are therefore practically guaranteed to start on the wings, as experienced fullbacks Agu and Deman are missing, and Stark and Coulibaly are considered certain starters in central defense, with the squad as a whole very thin on the ground.
Cologne form & record check
1. FC Cologne is in a downward spiral, with four defeats in five Bundesliga games, only the 4-1 win against Hamburg standing out as a positive result. The team is generally scoring goals, as evidenced by 20 goals this season, but there is a clear problem in defense, with Cologne conceding at least one goal in each of their last five games, often in the second half. With 14 points, Cologne is in tenth place, one point behind Bremen and one point ahead of Freiburg. The table is tight, but the team is in poor form. Four of their last five games have seen more than 3.5 goals scored, which underlines both the vulnerability of their defense and their open style of play.
The personnel situation in defense is extremely tense, with Hübers and Kilian out for the season after knee operations, Schmied suffering from a muscle injury, and Ache also out after a crash into the boards. Van den Berg is therefore being brought back from rehab early, even though he lacks match practice, a risk that can be explained by the necessity of the coach’s decision. Tactically, the team produces enough offensive action, with Kamiński among others a consistent performer with four goals and one assist in various roles, but often loses control due to defensive gaps, especially after the break. Vulnerability to counterattacks and a lack of stability in transition moments are the main problems. Without short-term defensive reinforcement, either in terms of personnel or tactics, it is likely that the negative streak will continue, even if the tight table still allows for a climb up the rankings. However, due to form and injuries, there are many reasons to believe that a quick turnaround is unlikely.
In the short term, Cologne needs pragmatic measures. First, defensive compactness should be prioritized, for example with a simple 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 formation with clear, rather conservative roles, especially in the second half. The workload of returning players such as Van den Berg should be staggered, which includes intensive training of set pieces to minimize goals conceded from dead balls. In addition, mental coaching and targeted rotation can help reduce carelessness after the break. Cologne has strong offensive approaches, but the unresolved defensive problems and the many injuries force a very sober, short-term approach, otherwise it will be difficult to break the negative spiral soon.
Despite the precarious defensive personnel, coach Kwasniok is likely to opt for a 4-3-3 formation in Bremen. Van den Berg is expected to start despite his lack of playing time because there are no alternatives. Hübers and Kilian are injured until the end of the season, Schmied has a muscle injury and Özkacar is also injured, so a possible back four of Sebulonsen, Van den Berg, Heintz and Lund seems realistic. Martel, Krauß, and Jóhannesson are expected to start in midfield, while Thielmann, Waldschmidt, and Kamiński will provide the attacking threat up front. Ache is out with concussion. It remains to be seen whether Van den Berg has enough match practice after playing just one U21 game since his return, but Kwasniok seems to need him urgently.
Werder – Cologne Head-to-head comparison & statistics
In the last five Bundesliga matches, Werder Bremen won two games, Cologne one, and there were two draws. At first glance, the record appears balanced, but on closer inspection, clear patterns emerge. Werder won the two most recent encounters, 2-1 at home in September 2023 and 1-0 in Cologne in February 2024, a small winning streak, but not enough to speak of clear dominance. Werder’s consistency is particularly evident in their offense, with Bremen scoring in all five games. Cologne conceded goals in four of the last five matches and only failed to score in Bremen’s 1-0 win in February 2024. One outlier is Cologne’s 7-1 rout in January 2023, which stands out statistically from the other, mostly close encounters. Apart from this 7-1 result, three of the other four games ended with a maximum difference of one goal, so the matches are often close and competitive. In four of the five encounters, both sides scored goals, with the second half often proving decisive as the games developed and the results were shaped.
