ATP Finals in Turin, Final, Sunday, 11/16/2025, 6:00 p.m.
This is the 18th edition of “Sincaraz.” This time, the venue for the next meeting between the two best players of their generation is Turin – specifically, the Inalpi Arena.
For today’s ATP Finals final, sports betting providers have been feverishly tinkering with their respective odds overnight, and every user-friendly betting app now sees the Italian as the clear favorite going into this match.
If the conditions were different, I would probably side with the Spaniard in my Alcaraz Sinner prediction. But in Italy, on hard court and at the end of the season, it should be 2-0 in sets for the local hero.
Looking at this final, Jannik Sinner simply seems like the one who has everything under control right now. The man is playing almost perfectly in Turin. He hasn’t conceded a single break and seems to be playing in a league of his own at the moment.
The fact that he easily defeated De Minaur in the semifinals fits perfectly into the picture. Indoor hard court is his terrain, and in this tournament he is also cheered on frenetically by his compatriots after every rally.
All of this makes him the favorite here, and this perception is also clearly reflected in the current Alcaraz Sinner odds.
Alcaraz naturally brings a huge overall package to the table, and the fact that he has reached the final here for the first time shows that, despite recurring injuries, his level is still high enough to compete anywhere.
Nevertheless, the Spaniard is more likely to be the one who has to surprise here. The indoor court does not suit him as well as clay or outdoor hard courts, and his fitness in the final stretch of the season is often a hotly debated topic.
Yes, his semifinal performance against Auger-Aliassime was strong, but beating Sinner – in Italy, in this form – is a whole different ball game. In purely sporting terms, he has the weapons he needs to do so, but the circumstances don’t necessarily favor him.
The direct comparison is interesting because, although Alcaraz is ahead overall, Sinner has won more indoor matches – most of them quite convincingly!
The setting in Turin gives Sinner a noticeable boost, which often comes into play in close moments. Added to this is his consistent level of performance over the last few months, despite breaks and setbacks.
A player who has reached the final in four indoor events in a row and has always been victorious simply shows that he seems to be unbeatable at the moment. And that’s exactly why I’m confidently ticking “Sinner” on my betting slip.
The strongest argument in favor of my bet is that Sinner is currently serving almost flawlessly and is virtually untouchable indoors. If anyone can stop Alcaraz here, it’s him – and not by a narrow margin, but relatively clearly.
Of course, Alcaraz can explode at any time and hit spectacular passing shots, but this final smells like a match that will be decided primarily by mental and physical stability.
That’s exactly what Sinner brings to the table like no other. In terms of betting, an Alcaraz Sinner tip on the Italian makes the most sense. His form, the venue, and the numbers all speak in his favor.
My Alcaraz Sinner tip
The bottom line is that I simply see the Italian coming out on top. If you’re unsure, you can stick with a simple win bet on Sinner.
However, I’m sticking with a 2-0 victory for the world number two – simply because he has played outstanding tennis in this tournament so far and the surface suits him immensely.
However, an interesting alternative is the selection 1st set & win: Sinner at odds of around 1.87 on the Betano app. This is precisely because the Italian has made an outstanding start to every match in Turin so far.
