Alaves vs. Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid are stuck in an early season crisis, with just one point from two games and an unfamiliar 14th place in the table, while Deportivo Alavés can be confident going into Saturday’s match at the Estadio de Mendizorroza in ninth place. Eduardo Coudet’s side lost 1-0 to Real Betis last time out, but their three points from two games show them to be in better form than the struggling Colchoneros, who are still searching for their identity after a disappointing 1-1 draw with Elche. Diego Simeone’s team’s personnel problems are exacerbated by the loss of José María Giménez, who will be out for at least a month with a thigh injury. The most recent meeting between the two teams ended goalless in May, but history shows a more balanced picture: in the last five encounters, Alavés won once and drew once, with both teams scoring in four of those games. Despite their current difficulties, bookmakers see Atlético as clear favorites, reflecting the expectation that the visitors’ individual quality will ultimately prevail, even if Alavés sense an opportunity to exploit the Madrid side’s problems on home turf.
- Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
- Date and time: 08/30/2025, 5:00 p.m.
- Competition: Primera División (Matchday 3)
Alaves form & record check
Eduardo Coudet’s Babazorros are looking competitive at the start of the new season, even if their recent defeat in Seville was a slight setback. With three points from two games, Alavés are safely mid-table in 9th place, which is very much in line with expectations. The season got off to a promising start with a convincing 2-1 win over Levante at home in Mendizorroza. Coudet opted for a stable starting lineup, which remained unchanged for the away game at Real Betis, suggesting that the Argentine coach has already found his preferred starting eleven. However, the 0-1 defeat to Betis also revealed some weaknesses. Interestingly, it was once again a set piece that proved dangerous for the opponents, with Lo Celso scoring after a blocked cross. The defense around Garcés and Tenaglia looked solid overall, but lacked the final touch in the decisive moments. It is noteworthy that Alavés hardly developed any scoring frenzy in their first two league games. The offense around Aleñá and Toni Martínez often remained too harmless, although Guridi certainly had his chances in Seville. There is still potential here that Coudet would like to tap into in the coming weeks.
Coach Eduardo Coudet is likely to stick with his tried-and-tested 4-4-2 formation after the good performance against Betis. The starting eleven that played in the second league match could remain largely unchanged, as there are currently no known personnel problems. As expected, Sivera will be in goal, while the defense could consist of Jonny, Garcés, Tenaglia, and Parada. The midfield is likely to consist of Carlos Vicente, Ibáñez, Blanco, and Aleñá. Guridi and Toni Martínez, who have already proven their qualities recently, are expected to lead the attack.
Atletico Form & Record Check
Atlético Madrid is currently going through a difficult start to the season, which is proving to be a real test of Diego Simeone’s patience. After two league games, the club has only one point and is in 14th place in the table, although one would expect the summer transfers to be bearing fruit by now. The recent 1-1 draw against Elche at home clearly revealed the current problems. Alexander Sørloth gave the Colchoneros an early lead, but just seven minutes later, the team conceded the equalizer through Rafa Mir. Interestingly, this goal came from a botched corner kick by the home side, which visibly angered Simeone. The new signings are in varying form: while Thiago Almada oscillates between brilliant passes and inexplicable mistakes, Julián Alvarez remained virtually invisible between the lines. Giuliano Simeone provided pace but hit the post instead of the goal. This inconsistency runs through the entire team. The situation is further complicated by the absence of José María Giménez. The center back will be out for at least another month with a thigh injury. Simeone therefore had to rely on the new duo of David Hancko and Robin Le Normand in defense, but the defensive stability has not yet reached the usual standard. The statistics from the last five games illustrate the problem: in 80% of the games, at least two goals were scored, while Atlético conceded and scored in four out of five games, which speaks for a team in transition that has not yet found its balance between offense and defense.
Atlético Madrid are likely to stick with their usual 4-4-2 formation, even though Diego Simeone is still experimenting with the integration of his new signings. The starting lineup is likely to feature Oblak in goal and a back four of Llorente, Le Normand, Hancko, and Ruggeri. In midfield, Simeone could rely on Giuliano Simeone, Cardoso, Barrios, and Almada, while up front, the duo of Sørloth and Alvarez should provide a threat. José María Giménez is still out with a muscle injury, which could affect the defensive stability. Griezmann and Gallagher are ready to come off the bench if Simeone wants to make tactical adjustments. This lineup is, of course, only a prediction and could still change depending on the coach’s tactical considerations.
H2H Alaves – Atletico Head-to-head comparison & statistics
The head-to-head record between Alavés and Atlético Madrid shows a fairly even picture in the last five encounters. Three wins went to the Colchoneros, Alavés won once, and the most recent meeting in May 2024 ended goalless. What is interesting is the home advantage for the Basques: their only win in this series came in 2024 in their own stadium with a 2-0 victory, while they regularly came up short away from home. The goalless draw a few months ago was also in Vitoria-Gasteiz. Atlético are particularly strong in the first half of these matches. The Madrid side has led 2-0 at halftime twice recently, while Alavés has mostly scored its goals in the second half, which could reflect tactical adjustments at halftime. The accuracy of both teams is also noteworthy: in four of the five games, both teams scored, which suggests open encounters. Only the last 0-0 draw broke this streak and was also the first goalless encounter between the two sides in a long time. The games usually remain low-scoring, with only one game, Atlético’s 4-1 win in 2022, seeing more than three goals scored. Otherwise, the results have settled between two and three goals, suggesting more controlled games than one might expect.
Alavés has shown remarkable consistency in the first half: in their last five games, they have not conceded more than one goal before the break, which justifies the tip for “Under 1.5 goals – 1st half.” This tendency to start games slowly could continue against Atlético, especially as the visitors are not yet settled defensively following the loss of Giménez and also need time to get going offensively. The second tip of “Under 2.5 goals” is supported by Alavés’ defensive stability, which has resulted in few goals in 80% of their recent games. Interestingly, this partly contradicts the market assessment, which rates Atlético as clear favorites with odds of 1.8, while our analysis expects a more balanced, low-scoring game. The most daring tip on “Draw – 2nd Half” is based on the fact that Alavés has drawn the second half in 80% of their last five games and has never lost. Atlético frequently rotates its offense and often loses its punch towards the end, which plays into the statistical pattern of Coude’s team. The odds of 3.5 for a draw seem quite generous, considering that both teams focus more on defensive solidity than spectacular offensive play.
