ATP Tournament in Los Cabos, Final, Sunday, 20.07.2025, 05:00
It’s final time at the Estadio Mextenis! The ATP tournament in Los Cabos comes to an end in the early hours of Sunday morning, and the final looks set to be a fascinating affair. Why? Because one player is rising from the ashes like a phoenix, while the other, the enfant terrible, is unpredictable anyway.
If you don’t know what I’m talking about, don’t worry. My Kovacevic Shapovalov tip will tell you everything you need to know – including, of course, why, after much deliberation, I’ve come to the conclusion that the favorite will win 2-0.
Anyone who has followed the men’s tour in recent years knows that Denis Shapovalov is one of those players who is capable of anything. The 26-year-old and consistency are not exactly synonymous.
After managing just one win during his grass court preparation, Wimbledon was also over very quickly for him. In the first round, he lost 6-3, 4-6, 1-6, 4-6 to Mariano Navone.
So it wasn’t necessarily predictable that he would make it to the final in Los Cabos. After receiving a bye in the first round, he started in the round of 16 against Govind Nanda, whom he defeated relatively easily 6-1, 6-2.
Shapovalov didn’t have to push himself to the limit against Tristan Schoolkate either, winning 6-3, 6-2. Finally, he cleared the semifinal hurdle, winning 6-2, 6-2 against Adam Walton.
Eleven games lost in three matches is really impressive. There are also some commendable facts about his serve. Although he didn’t achieve any top scores between 80 and 90 percent, he didn’t miss the 75 mark on average in either his first or second serve.
And that’s on his debut in Los Cabos, where Shapovalov is playing for the first time ever. We are even witnessing a double debut, as he has never played Aleksandar Kovacevic before.
The Canadian has won three titles in his career so far, and now number four beckons. Will knowing that he is the clear favorite in this final give him an extra boost?
If we look at our bookmakers, we find an average of 1.25 to 3.45. On top of that, you can check out how quickly sports betting winnings are paid out here with classic win bets.
This final is a very special moment for Aleksandar Kovacic – he has never won a title on the ATP Tour before! Although he won the Challenger in Cap Cana in March this year, the trophy in Los Cabos would be something else entirely.
The American had not won a match in the main draw for three and a half months before the start of the tournament in Mexico, and he was also knocked out in the first round at Wimbledon.
What makes Kovacevic so strong right now? In the semifinals, which few had expected, he defeated Andrey Rublev (for the second time this year, incidentally) 3-6, 6-4, 6-4.
It should be noted, however, that Rublev was not having his best day; overall, it was an evenly matched game. He only converted three of his 14 break points, so he will need to improve his conversion rate in the final.
In the quarterfinals, Kovacevic defeated Juan Pablo Ficovic 6-3, 6-1, after beating Luis Carlos Alvarez 7-5, 6-4 in the previous round. For the sake of completeness: He started with a 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 win over Hady Habib.
His first serves, which are quite interesting, average only 50 percent – something else that Shapovalov will be looking at closely in his analysis of his opponent. At 1.83 m, Kovacevic is not exactly a giant either.
My Kovacevic Shapovalov tip
Denis Shapovalov can win his fourth title on the ATP Tour, Aleksandar Kovacevic his very first! We are in for a very interesting final on Sunday in Los Cabos, one that could well be a close contest.
But only if Shapovalov loses the form he has shown in recent days. The Canadian is playing really well, while his American opponent is also benefiting from weaker performances by his rivals. That’s why I’m going for the following bet:
Shapovalov will win in straight sets against Kovacevic!
