Key Facts
- Osasuna is in 15th place with 11 points, while Athletic Bilbao is in seventh place with 15 points; a win would bring Osasuna closer to Bilbao.
- Athletic Bilbao has won three of its last five games; Iñaki Williams and Álex Berenguer scored against Real Sociedad, contributing to the team’s recent winning streak.
- Ante Budimir gave Osasuna the lead against Deportivo La Coruña, but the 1-2 loss once again highlighted how difficult it is for Arrasate’s team to defend a lead.
- Osasuna is missing a creative midfielder in Aimar Oroz; Athletic Bilbao will be without key center forwards Gorka Guruzeta and Maroan Sannadi.
- Athletic Bilbao has the better historical record against Osasuna, while recent head-to-head matches have been low-scoring and have sometimes ended in draws.
- The prediction of over 2.5 goals is based on Osasuna’s nine goals conceded in their last five games; however, the most recent head-to-head matches call for caution.
Match Preview
Jagoba Arrasate’s return has not yet brought stability to Osasuna, while Athletic Bilbao arrives on the back of two consecutive La Liga wins under Edin Terzic. The two teams will face off on Saturday at Estadio El Sadar. Osasuna sits in 15th place in the standings, while Bilbao is in seventh, and their recent results explain the gap between them. Osasuna lost their last recorded competitive match against Bilbao 0–1 in April 2026. Nevertheless, Osasuna’s vulnerable defense in particular supports the over 2.5 goals prediction.
- Venue: Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona
- Date and Time: November 7, 2026, 6:30 p.m.
- Competition: La Liga (Matchday 12)
Over 2.5 goals is our top pick: Osasuna’s defensive mistakes create opportunities, even if Bilbao’s low-scoring league record makes the bet less promising. Both teams to score: “No” is also a possibility if only one offense dominates the game. Aimar Oroz, Gorka Guruzeta, and Maroan Sannadi are out. However, the fact that both teams have scored recently makes this pick riskier. The betting market favors Bilbao, but their inconsistent away results point toward a Double Chance bet: Osasuna or a draw. We’re betting on Over 2.5 goals because Osasuna concedes goals too easily.
Osasuna Form & Record Check
Osasuna took the lead against Deportivo La Coruña thanks to Ante Budimir, but conceded two goals after halftime and lost the league match 1–2. Prior to that, they had suffered a 0–2 defeat at Sevilla FC. This latest slump is likely to heighten Arrasate’s concerns about his team’s discipline. While the 2-0 league win against Racing Santander argues against Bilbao being a clear favorite, the match against Deportivo once again highlighted how difficult it is for Osasuna to defend a lead.
Budimir has scored eight of Osasuna’s eleven league goals. This speaks to Osasuna’s scoring threat, but it also shows how heavily the offense relies on a single finisher. The absence of Aimar Oroz limits Arrasate’s creative options. Raúl Moro and Jonathan Dubasin could once again play alongside Budimir. Osasuna’s 22 goals conceded in the league are a strong indication that the opposition could score.
Osasuna could line up in a 4-3-3, with Sergio Herrera in goal and Alejandro Catena and Enzo Boyomo at center back. Jon Moncayola and Iker Muñoz are expected to start in midfield. Moi Gómez is set to help fill the creative void left by Aimar Oroz, who is out with a thigh injury. Ante Budimir could start as the center forward, flanked by Jonathan Dubasin and Raúl Moro.
Bilbao Form & Record Check
Bilbao defeated Real Sociedad 2-1 in La Liga. Iñaki Williams scored off an assist from Nico Williams, and Álex Berenguer converted a penalty kick. After the equalizer, a save by Unai Simón proved crucial. Terzic had his team press high early on, but they later dropped deeper in defense. Their previous 4-0 league win against Getafe suggests more goals are on the way. However, the derby also showed that Bilbao doesn’t control every phase of the game.
Bilbao’s league matches at Valencia CF and Levante UD ended in a 0–0 draw and a 1–3 loss, respectively. These are good reasons not to simply follow the betting market’s trend toward an away win. Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Unai Egiluz, Gorka Guruzeta, and Maroan Sannadi are out, which limits Terzic’s options in several positions. The recent goals suggest a high-scoring match, but the away results clearly keep Osasuna or a draw in the running.
Osasuna – Bilbao Head-to-Head & Statistics
In the 27 recorded competitive matches, Bilbao has 14 wins and Osasuna six. Seven matches ended in a draw. A bet on Osasuna or a draw therefore goes against the historical record. From Osasuna’s perspective, the matchup in April 2026 ended 0–1, the one in January 2026 ended 1–1, and the league match in 2025 ended 0–0. These three low-scoring matches are the strongest argument against more than 2.5 goals. Osasuna’s current defensive record, however, supports this bet.
