ATP Tournament in Los Cabos, Semifinals, Saturday, 19.07.2025, 06:30
Some players are back on clay, while others are already focusing on hard courts. The ATP Tour is in full swing around the globe, with matches taking place in Los Cabos, Mexico, among other locations.
There, the number 1 seed will battle for a spot in the final on Saturday. Will it be a quick match? I’m not entirely sure, as his form could be better. Accordingly, I’ll reveal why I think the underdog will win in one set in my current Rublev Kovacevic tip.
Don’t fall out of the top 10! Andrey Rublev is just about holding on to his place among the world’s best, but he needs to pull himself together to stay there. The 27-year-old won his only title of 2025 in February, adding another final to his tally.
Not the results Rublev had in mind. He lost in the first round of the Australian Open, was knocked out in the round of 16 at the French Open, and didn’t make it past the second round at Wimbledon. He had imagined his Grand Slam performances would be very different.
Well, I have to mention that you can be eliminated by Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, the two dominant players in the tennis world. After his Wimbledon exit, Rublev traveled to faraway Los Cabos.
This is the first time he has ever been on the starting list here. Local hero Alex Hernandez was waiting for him in the opening round. Rublev didn’t have to work particularly hard to secure a comfortable 6-3, 6-2 victory.
A little later against Emilio Nava, things looked very different. At 5-7, 6-4, 6-3, he allowed his opponent all three break points. It was by no means a brilliant performance, with 88 points won to 86 in the end.
Rublev took a deep breath, because he knew it could have ended differently. He is also well aware that you don’t just beat Aleksandar Kovacevic in passing.
In Montpellier, just a few months ago, the favorite lost 5-7, 4-6. Favorite? The Russian definitely is on Saturday, as the average odds are 1.20 to 4.10.
Anyone who wants to bet on a 2-0 win for Rublev at Oddset – although I think that’s unlikely – can expect odds of 1.60. As a new customer, you are also eligible for a bonus of up to $100.
Aleksandar Kovacic is aware of his underdog status, but that shouldn’t bother him. Hardly anyone thought he would win in Montpellier either. The American is playing in Los Cabos for the third time in a row.
After reaching the quarterfinals twice, he has now gone one step further. In the first round, where Rublev had a bye, he won 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 against Hady Habib.
Shortly afterwards, he eliminated Luis Carlos Alvarez (7-5, 6-4) and most recently won 6-3, 6-1 against Juan Pablo Ficovich. Let’s be honest: there weren’t any really big opponents, Rublev is in a completely different league.
The quarter-final could have been over much sooner, but Kovacevic only took five of his 13 break points. However, he won around 80 percent of his first serves throughout the tournament, which is not bad.
The fact that he has now won three matches is by no means a given. In Houston, where this competition was held in early April, he won his last match in the main draw before Los Cabos!
It’s curious that he has now won three matches in a row. Kovacevic could be on a roll, which Rublev’s team may have told their protégé.
My Rublev Kovacevic tip
You probably knew even without a betting tip that Andrey Rublev is the favorite going into the match against Aleksandar Kovacevic. But with the Russian, you never know exactly what you’re going to get this year.
Kovacevic was completely under the radar for a long time in 2025, but I didn’t have his three wins in Los Cabos on my radar. Since he has already beaten Rublev once this year, I’m going with the following tip:
Kovacevic will win a set against Rublev!
