Australian Open in Melbourne, Quarter-finals, Tuesday, 21.01.2025, 01:00
The quarter-final match between Alexander Zverev is coming up! After the first lost service games in round three, the first set collapse followed in the round of 16. Ultimately, however, it was another commanding victory for the German, who only went under in the second set.
With my under 40.5 games bet, I had the right hunch for the fourth time in the fourth Zverev game. This time, however, I am switching to a different market.
In my Paul Zverev betting tip, I explain why I decided on a Zverev victory with a -1.5 set handicap from Winamax.
In 2020 and 2022, Paul and Zverev faced each other. In Acapulco and Indian Wells, the current world number 11 came out on top. On Mexican soil, two years later, we saw a closer match at the Masters in California.
It was only the tiebreak in the third set that brought a decision. Zverev is not too critical of the record, pointing out to the Eurosport microphone that the duels were a few years back. But he still knows his strengths well.
“He has a strong head on the court and plays tactically clever. I think I have more power and I have to take advantage of that,” Zverev analyzed at the Eurosport microphone before returning to the training court. At least his game only lasted a good two hours again. The individual sets were not long.
Zverev had no chance in the second set. Humbert returned perfectly, took the ball very early and repeatedly put himself in an offensive position, taking two service games from Zverev.
After a shaky start to the third set at 15:30, Zverev improved and Humbert was unable to maintain the level.
Zverev’s win rate among our betting providers is even higher in the quarterfinals than in the round of 16. However, at 1.34, he remains the clear favorite. Paul has a 3.45.
The Hamburg native has come through confidently so far, beating Pedro Martinez, Jacob Fearnley and Lucas Pouille without losing a set or a tiebreak. Only Humbert was able to pose a threat to him for an entire set.
And Paul? He had a slow start against Christopher O’Connell, had to go the full distance and then also had to play a fourth set against Kei Nishikori. The American, who is the same age as Zverev, was able to save energy in rounds three and four.
He grabbed the breaks on the assembly line against the two Spaniards Roberto Carballes Baena (7-6, 6-2, 6-0) and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (6-1, 6-1, 6-1). While I don’t rate Carballes Baena that highly on hard courts anyway, Fokina was exhausted after two five-set matches.
In addition, Paul’s last opponents were not among the best servers. He will have a much harder time getting into the break point region against Zverev.
And Paul himself? I see him at a clear disadvantage against Zverev in terms of this discipline. The ratio of first serves is quite volatile and he doesn’t have the power of Zverev. And as the German himself says, I see him as the better server in terms of pace.
And with that, he will really challenge Paul in his service games. Humbert successfully served 71 percent of first serves, but ended up losing a whopping 44 percent of the points. Overall, Zverev had 16 break opportunities.
In the entire tournament, he has had 59 opportunities, which is actually ten more than Djokovic had until the quarterfinals, who has a reputation as the best returner.
I expect Zverev to be able to do a lot more with his returns than Paul, who has had to give up almost 40 percent of his service points in the previous rounds. Zverev, on the other hand, has only lost about a quarter so far.
My Paul Zverev tip
It was touch and go for Zverev against Humbert for a while. In the end, however, Zverev won his three sets comfortably, building on his previous rounds. He made hardly any mistakes, served with a great first serve percentage and repeatedly applied pressure in the service games.
He still has a record that shows that he has won about every second return point in the tournament so far. Paul will play powerfully and try to put Zverev on the back foot.
In the long rallies that we should see, especially after Paul’s serves, he is likely to give away more points than Zverev against the counter-attacking North German. Zverev’s advantage in quality of serve and return should become apparent in the tiebreaks at the latest.
Also keep an eye on our odds boost overview. There are always attractive offers there for the Australian Open.
My Paul Zverev betting tip: Zverev to win (-1.5 set handicap)
