Hamburg Open, 1st round, Wednesday, 17.07.2024
Match one for Alexander Zverev after the bitter tournament exit at Wimbledon. He didn’t concede a service game on the hallowed turf until the round of 16, marching smoothly through the first rounds before the knee problems from his slip-up against Cameron Norrie made themselves felt.
In Hamburg, he starts in the first round against Jesper de Jong. A must win, according to the bookmakers.
I can only underline that after his performances at Wimbledon. In addition to the smooth 2:0, I’m adding the odds at Bet365 that Zverev can avoid the tiebreak
“If it were any other tournament, I wouldn’t try. This is my home, this is where I started my career,” said Zverev ahead of the Hamburg Open, ruling out the possibility of his knee injury getting worse.
Only if he were to fall down again right away could the condition worsen. Zverev is willing to accept the residual risk in order to compete in the tournament, which he entered as the top seed and which he won in glorious style last year.
Without losing a set or tiebreak, he rushed to the title in the city of his birth, one of the most important in his career. The Hamburg Open is also the perfect preparation for the Olympic Games, which will be held on clay courts for the first time since 1992. For this, the Olympians are heading to the Roland Garros tennis facility
The duel against de Jong awaits in Hamburg on Tuesday. He has never had to play the Dutchman before, and for long stretches the 114th player in the world plays at Challenger level. He lifted the trophy in Sassuolo.
The luck of the draw failed to materialize at the really big tournaments. He made it through to the second round in both Melbourne and the French Open. His next opponents, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, were tough, or to be more precise, he had to play the eventual tournament winners.
He at least managed to take a set off Alcaraz. However, I don’t think he can do that against Zverev, whose last training sessions before the first Hamburg match went without a hitch. The top sports betting apps give Zverev odds of 1.06, de Jong 8.00.
It quickly becomes clear that there is no value here. The 2:0 win at 1.27 is also not really tempting. It looks different when the Bet365 betting configurator is used. If we exclude the tiebreaker, the odds become 1.54.
A top combination. Not only because Zverev didn’t let anything burn last year. The Hamburg native, who now has his main residence in Monaco, was consistent on clay. He won the tournament in Rome, losing just one set.
At the French Open, he was only thwarted by Alcaraz in the final after leading 2:1 in sets. Zverev lays the foundation with a combination of strong, reliable first serves and a passive but safe return game
He usually hits over 70 percent of his first serves into the court. 75 percent in his last two appearances. If his body doesn’t go on strike, it’s almost impossible to take points from him after serving number one.
At the same time, he showed how hard he can work against the serve himself against the Grand Slam winner of the last two major tournaments in the Paris final. He played 23 break points against Alcaraz. A total of 110 in the French capital!
De Jong faces a difficult task, having conceded three service games in his last qualifying match in Hamburg against Nick Hardt (191) alone.
In addition, his first serve is inconsistent, sometimes he puts together a strong 67 percent, but occasionally he slips into the 50 percent range. Nevertheless, he made it through the qualifiers without losing a set.
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My Zverev de Jong tip
Zverev serves the most stable of the tennis world’s top elite by a small margin. At the same time, he is particularly dangerous on the return game on clay. He is likely to take a few service games from De Jong.
Because the Dutchman’s service percentages are extremely volatile. Even when he has a good rate, Zverev always manages to fight his way into the rallies from a deep position with deep balls into his opponent’s half.
The tournament in Hamburg is also an affair of the heart for him. The warm summer conditions in the otherwise cool north suit him just as much as the support in the stands.
I expect him to continue where he left off last year in the Hanseatic city. He will only start if he can move freely with his knee on the stadium court at the Rothenbaum and in that case he would be unstoppable by de Jong.
My Zverev de Jong tip: 2:0 Zverev & no tiebreak
