Australian Open in Melbourne, Final, Saturday, 27.01.2024
Hello again, Melbourne, Hello again, Rod Laver Arena, Hello Again, Final! Aryna Sabalenka returns to the scene of the action just one year after her greatest triumph and, almost as expected, has made it to the final of the Australian Open 2024.
The world No. 2 is not showing any weakness in Down Under and has already outclassed several opponents; on Saturday she will face China’s Qinwen Zheng. It will be the first really big match of her career.
Our bookmakers are positioning themselves accordingly, clearly favoring the Belarusian. In my Zheng Sabalenka betting tip, I’ll now reveal why I’m backing a 2:0 and why I’m not missing out on the odds of 1.63 at Bet365
It was almost exactly a year ago that Aryna Sabalenka could hardly believe her luck. After several attempts, she reached a Grand Slam final for the first time, held her nerve and won in three sets against Elena Rybakina despite being behind.
Her year 2023? A very good one! She reached the semi-finals in both Paris and Wimbledon and lost in the final at the US Open. Sabalenka is still behind Iga Swiantek in the world rankings, but that is unlikely to remain the case for much longer.
While the Polish player had to pack her bags in the third round, Sabalenka racked up one victory after another at the 2024 Australian Open. And not just somehow, but with real match demonstrations!
The 25-year-old didn’t drop a single set until the final, meaning she could deliver an absolutely flawless, flawless major. After three commanding victories against, let’s call it “mediocre” opponents, the first tougher nut to crack awaited in the form of Barbora Krejcikova
At least that’s what many thought, because Sabalenka didn’t let anything get in the way here either, winning 6-2, 6-3. After all, it was the young Coco Gauff who briefly managed to shake Sabalenka in the semi-finals.
At 7-6, 6-4, the Belarusian really had to go to her performance limit for the first time. She normally uses over 50% of her break chances, but against Gauff it was only four out of ten, which is why the match lasted a little longer.
The 1.82 meter tall Sabalenka serves with a bang, mostly avoiding annoying double faults (in contrast, Gauff had eight of them). Will she be able to show this aplomb in the final as well
Sabalenka knows the feeling of big finals, having played her current opponent Qinwen Zheng once before. It wasn’t that long ago, in the quarter-finals of the last US Open, the favorite prevailed 6-1, 6-4.
A result that could also be high on our top sports betting apps on Saturday. In any case, Sabalenka is favored across the board here, with the odds showing an average of 1.15 to 4.80.
Admittedly, Qinwen Zheng was not necessarily to be expected in this final, but the Chinese player will certainly forgive me for saying that! She has only made eight appearances in the main draw of a Grand Slam and is probably a little surprised by her own performance.
It’s hard to believe that she dropped the first set of the tournament! After her three-set victory in the first round, she remained true to her somewhat inconsistent style, sometimes winning in two sets, then again in three
Ashlyn Krueger, Katie Boulter, Wang Yafan, Oceane Dodin and Anna Kalinskaya were beaten and Zheng was already in the semi-finals. The draw was relatively kind to her, as no opponent from the top field was waiting for her here either.
Dayana Yastremska, the sensational qualifier, tried everything but was too nervous and so Zheng won relatively calmly 6-4, 6-4. As so often, the points won on the first serve were the deciding factor, with an average of 80% here in Melbourne.
Reaching the quarter-finals at the 2023 US Open was the biggest success of her career to date, when she was famously eliminated by Aryna Sabalenka. After reaching the 2nd round twice in Down Under, her current final is already a minor sensation
My Zheng Sabalenka tip
Will it be the favorite or the surprise woman from China? Aryna Sabalenka knows that everyone is expecting a commanding performance from her and that no one can really imagine her nerves fluttering.
The Belarusian didn’t drop a single set in Melbourne and showed her best side. On the other hand, Qinwen Zheng has yet to face a single top opponent, making her performances all the more difficult to assess.
Like the spectators in the Rod Laver Arena, I naturally hope for an exciting final, but at the same time I don’t believe that the favorite will actually falter. That’s why my tip is logical:
Sabalenka beats Zheng easily
