ATP Masters in Paris, 2nd round, Wednesday, 01.11.2023
The defending champion enters the tournament! So will he finally be one of the absolute top favorites to win the trophy at the Paris Masters? What sounds obvious is only conditionally so in the case of Holger Rune.
The young Dane is running miles behind his form at the moment, and he can’t really explain to himself why nothing is going right. His opponent on Wednesday is highly motivated to exploit exactly THAT.
The former number 3 from Austria is the underdog at Betano, but the gap is small. In my Thiem Rune tip, I will now reveal why I trust the two to win at least a tiebreak!
Stan Warwinka, Hubert Hurkacz, Andrey Rublev, Carlos Alcaraz, Felix Auger-Aliassime and finally Novak Djokovic? What Holger Rune set up in Paris exactly one year ago is without equal!
At the age of 19, he beat all the top stars who stood in his way at the time and snatched one of his biggest titles of his still young career. Rune was predicted to have a career of the century, but that has now stalled tremendously.
The Wimbledon quarterfinalist slid into a crisis, winning a single match between August and the end of October! No matter who the opponent was, the youngster lacked class and nerves of steel.
Now the question is: Can he mentally unpack one more and make sure that he makes it to the ATP Finals in Turin in November? He’s currently wobbling badly and needs a really strong Masters in the French capital.
It’s good that he’s played himself back into shape after a few dreary weeks and months, or rather fought his way back into shape. At the Swiss Indoors, he finally made it to the semifinals again, even though he clearly missed the final.
Who was defeated there? Miomir Kecmanovic and Tomas Martin Etcheverry he beat in three sets, against Sebastian Baez he came through smoothly. So, not exactly the world elite, as soon as he faced Felix Auger-Aliassime, it was over quickly with 3-6, 2-6.
Despite his young age, Rune knows exactly where he still has to improve. In Paris, what he delivered a year ago counts for nothing, it starts all over again and should not result in a 1st round exit.
He met his current opponent, Dominic Thiem, for the first time this year in Monte Carlo. The favorite prevailed 6-2, 6-4 back then, but should still know that he will have to fight to advance on Wednesday as well.
He may be ahead with our betting providers, but the average odds are anything but clear with a 1.50 to 2.50. Or as they say from the Austrian point of view: Everything is possible for their Dominic!
We’ve covered some ups and downs in our coverage of the 30-year-old in 2023, the bottom line is that Thiem will finish the season ranked around 100.
Measured against his own standards, that is of course too little, but currently not much more seems possible. In Paris he had to start already in the qualification, which cost him energy, but also provided a certain rhythm.
After his 6-1, 4-6, 7-5 against Lorenzo Sonego, he won 6-4, 6-3 against Christopher O’Connell, the way was clear for the main round. There he met veteran Stan Wawrinka, and this match was to remain in the spectators’ memories for a long time.
It turned into a real night session, Thiem fended off a match point and in the end secured a 3-6, 6-3, 7-5! Wawrinka had 13 chances to break, but the Austrian skillfully fended off ten of them.
He used four of the five himself, a much better rate. Of course, the former world No. 3 knows: “I’ll have to play a bit better against Rune if I want to make it to the round of 16.
My Thiem Rune tip
Holger Rune knows himself: He could have achieved much, much more in 2023. The young Dane is still at the beginning of his career, yet he must also first put away the events of recent months.
His opponent now wants to deny him a place in the final, Dominic Thiem is already pretty well in rhythm after three wins. Individually, he may not be able to keep up, but we attest him an enormous fighting spirit.
I can well imagine that Thiem can annoy the young Rune for a long time, if he gets through with his serve. All in all, I have therefore decided on the following bet:
We see a tiebreak!
