ATP Shanghai Tournament, 3rd Round, Monday, 09.10.2023
Carlos Alcaraz had no major problems in his opening match of the Shanghai Masters. The world number two won against Gregoire Barrere in two sets. Daniel Evans is now waiting in the third round.
This is the third time he has met the Brit in this tennis year. In Barcelona he gave him no chance on clay. At the US Open, the 33-year-old was able to take at least one set from him. In my Alcaraz Evans tip, I advise you to place a bet with Bet365.
The odds difference for the match between Alcaraz and Evans (6.20) in the third round of Shanghai could hardly be much clearer. After all, the Spaniard’s exit would be a fist-pumping surprise.
In 2023, Alcaraz has won 64 of his 72 matches, and on hard court he has a record of 25 wins from 30 matches. Statistically, it is his strongest season so far.
What is in store for us? After all, the man from El Palmar is only 20 years old. He triumphed at Wimbledon this year and stopped Novak Djokovic’s long winning streak.
He missed the Australian Open due to injury. Physical ailments also slowed him down in the French Open semi-finals, when he was plagued by cramps in his comeback against the record Grand Slam winner.
In New York, the place where he won his first major title in 2022 and took over the world ranking, he failed to reach the semi-finals against Daniil Medvedev.
The semi-finals were also the last stop in Beijing. The eventual tournament winner Jannik Sinner won in two straight sets. Alcaraz stumbled especially on the second set, scoring only five of the 18 points.
In addition, the defensively strong Spaniard only made use of two of his nine break chances and surrendered five service games in eight of Sinner’s opportunities.
Alcaraz had a much easier match in the second round in Shanghai. The 73rd ranked player in the world, Gregoire Barrere, only found his way into the match in the second set and almost forced Alcaraz into a tiebreak: 6-2, 7-5.
However, the consistency in the service games left much to be desired. Again, the 20-year-old had to resort to the second serve for only eight out of 16 points.
All in all, he acted more calmly with the break chances than he did against Sinner. Evans was also the stronger player in his first match against Mikhail Kukushkin, who had to retire due to injury in the second set.
For the 33 of the world it was a small liberation blow. After all, Evans failed in Chengdu and Beijing both in the opener. However, he had to overcome difficult hurdles with Jannik Sinner (4-6, 7-6, 3-6) and the up-and-coming Roman Safiullin (3-6, 3-6).
However, he hasn’t been able to put any big exclamation marks since switching to hard court after his triumph in Washington. Due to his current form, I expect an easy match for Alcaraz.
Moreover, he is not a service specialist. Aces and service winners are not standard for him. So it will be uncomfortable against Alcaraz, who will probably fight his way into almost every service game of the Brit on Monday.
6-4, 6-3 in Vienna 2021, 6-2, 6-2 in Barcelona 2023 and 6-2, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 were the last results when the two players met. Will Alcaraz allow himself another blemish in the result? More on that in my conclusion.
My Alcaraz Evans Tip
Both players are not in top form at the moment. Alcaraz stumbles now and then in his service games and Evans is not poisonous enough in the rallies, among other things.
Since Evans is not one of the most dangerous servers, it was always dicey against the strong-returning Alcaraz in the service games. In the first three duels, the slice fanatic conceded 16 breaks against Alcaraz.
Although Alcaraz also stumbled from time to time in his most recent matches, he managed to get more breaks than his competitors. I expect a quick march through to the fourth round for the world’s number two and go with the Bet365 betting configurator.
My Alcaraz Evans tip: Alcaraz wins 2:0 & No tiebreak.
