ATP Tournament in Hamburg, 1st Round, Wednesday, 25.07.2023
Andrey Rublev travels to Hamburg inspired. The 25-year-old is the newly crowned champion of the 250 tournament in Bastad. As he still had to play on Sunday, he will have to play together with finalist Casper Ruud on Wednesday.
At the Rothenbaum in Hamburg, he starts against Bernabe Zapata Miralles. No easy task for the number two of the tournament. How did the tournament start against the 54th ranked player in the world? In my Zapata Miralles Rublev tip, I give a prediction.
The last few weeks have been successful for Andrey Rublev. While his elimination in the third round at the French Open was still a big surprise, he came up trumps on grass.
In Halle, he made it all the way to the final. Only Alexander Bublik was able to stop the Russian. Novak Djokovic was then the final stop at Wimbledon. But a defeat in the quarter-finals against the record Grand Slam winner is bearable.
He at least took the first set from the Serb, but could not maintain the high level over the full distance. Only a few days later he picked up the racket again on the red clay.
He had strong competition at the 250 tournament in Bastad. He clearly showed the limits to his buddy Alexander Zverev (6-2, 6-3) in the quarter-finals before cruising to a semi-final thriller against Francisco Cerundolo (7-6, 6-7, 6-3).
Ruud was then the favourite with the betting companies in the final. Rublev responded with a clear 2-0 win (7-6, 6-0) and extended the duel statistics to 6-2.
No big surprise that the oddsmakers see Rublev (1.12 odds) ahead in his first match of the Hamburg European Open. A win for Zapata Miralles (6.00) would be a sensation according to Bet365.
The two stars have never met on court. While Rublev travels a lot on all surfaces, the Spaniard belongs to the category “clay court specialist”.
Although Zapata Miralles is only nine months older, with 449 matches he has played more than twice as many clay court matches as Rublev (190).
Rublev nevertheless brings more quality to the table, especially this year. He has won 18 of his 22 clay court matches. He left the Monaco Masters as champion. That’s why his early exit from the French Open was a big surprise.
If you want to bet on a surprise Zapata Miralles reaching the next round, the probabilities are not on your side. Rublev last failed in a first round of a clay court tournament in June 2021.
I would recommend 2-0 for the Russian instead. Bet365 still has lucrative odds of 1.50 on offer for this market. If he can build on his performance in Sweden, the bet will go through easily.
Rublev was particularly toxic in his return game, taking four service games from two-time French Open finalist Ruud, and Zverev and Cerundolo also stumbled regularly. There were 33 break chances after four matches.
If it is to be the big miracle, Zapata Miralles will have to step it up a notch. The 26-year-old was also on the road in Bastad, but failed in round two against Sebastian Ofner.
He conceded seven breaks and was too ineffective on his own 20 chances. Things went better at the Challenger in Iasi, Romania.
He was only defeated by Hugo Gaston in the final. But both Gaston and Cristian Garin in the semi-finals had numerous break chances, which they missed.
My Zapata Miralles Rublev Tip
Rublev is currently playing one of his strongest clay court seasons and starts with a lot of confidence into the first round at Hamburg’s Rothenbaum. His return game has been outstanding lately.
Zapata Miralles, on the other hand, has had problems in recent matches with his service games. He will not be able to afford that against Rublev.
I expect Rublev to continue in Hamburg where he left off in Sweden and defeat Zapata Miralles clearly.
My Zapata Miralles Rublev tip: Rublev wins in two sets!
