Wimbledon 2023, Final, Sunday, 16/07/2023
It’s the final every neutral tennis fan has dreamed of at Wimbledon. Carlos Alcaraz meets Novak Djokovic, the one against the two of the world. A duel between two players who have repeatedly knocked each other off their thrones in recent months.
For the betting fans, I have the honour of writing a forecast on this top-class match and want to give you sports betting fans the best possible odds.
Can the Serb bag his 24th Grand Slam title or will the super talent from El Palmar lift the Wimbledon trophy for the first time? That will be the subject of my Alcaraz Djokovic tip in the next few lines.
Alcaraz’s numbers speak for themselves. In 50 matches this year, he has racked up 46 wins. He was last slowed down on 9 June in the semi-finals of the French Open.
His opponent at that time was also Djokovic. But the biggest opponent on that day was his own body, which took away all his mobility with several cramps.
Shortly before the drama, he turned the match in his favour with a dominant second set. In the end, Djokovic had it easy with 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1 and two days later he was crowned the sole record Grand Slam winner.
1:1 is now the direct duel between the two tennis prodigies. Djokovic and Alcaraz met in the Madrid semi-finals in May 2022. Alcaraz was able to turn the match around as a fresh 19-year-old and win the Masters.
On grass, the bookmakers have a clear favourite with Djokovic (1.53 odds). Bet365 offers 2.62 odds on the world number one.
I am surprised that the odds are so far apart. Djokovic hasn’t lost at Wimbledon since 2017 and is clearly the more experienced player on grass, but Alcaraz’s statistics are also fabulous.
18 of 21 matches he has won on the green, making it 85.7 per cent of all matches. The winning percentage of the Serb, who has 117 more matches behind him, is 0.5 per cent higher.
Djokovic last lost on grass to Marin Cilic in the Queens Club final. Tomas Berdych, who ended his career four years ago, is still the last “Djoker” conqueror at Wimbledon. The Czech benefited from a retirement at the time.
In this year’s tournament, both players had no problems. Alcaraz only had to drop a set against Nicolas Jarry and Matteo Berrettini in rounds three and four.
The world’s deuce has just as many set defeats under its belt. Andrey Rublev and Hubert Hurkacz were able to take one set off the most successful player of all time on their way to the final.
As in the first two duels, I expect neither pro to win the third match without losing a set.
Overall, despite Djokovic’s numerous successes at Wimbledon, I have more confidence in Alcaraz on Sunday. He has offered an even better level of play on grass, especially in the last few rounds.
Daniil Medvedev, Holger Rune and grass court specialist Matteo Berrettini have combined to create just eight break chances.
In addition to being confident on serve, Alcaraz himself was red-hot with 33 break chances in those three rounds alone. Especially since none of the three is a bad server. He took 70 percent of Medvedev’s points after the second serve.
If you don’t want to commit to Alcaraz winning, you could also go for the option of the reigning US Open champion winning at least two rounds. Bet365 provides a 1.72 for this market.
Summary: Djokovic and Alcaraz did not have any major problems to enter the final of Wimbledon. However, the Spaniard solved his last matches even more confidently and has developed even more quality on the green during the tournament.
Despite his still limited experience, I definitely trust him to defeat the Wimbledon legend. Already in the first duels of the giants, Alcaraz was the stronger player when he was in full possession of his strength.
He hardly let anything go in his own service games in Wimbledon and in the return game he will often push Djokovic to the limit. Therefore, I opt for the following Alcaraz Djokovic tip in the Wimbledon final:
Alcaraz wins Wimbledon!
