Wimbledon, Quarter Finals, Tuesday, 11/07/2023
In the quarter-finals of Wimbledon, Iga Swiatek and Elina Svitolina will meet. The world number one prevailed in two rounds in their only duel so far.
Swiatek topped her best-ever result of 2021 by reaching the quarter-finals and is heading for her first Wimbledon triumph. In my Swiatek Svitolina tip, I reveal suitable odds on the match.
2021 Swiatek reached the round of 16 at Wimbledon, the big triumph still eluded her on grass. She has already bagged four Grand Slam trophies. She has won the French Open three times and the US Open 2022.
However, her win rate is also strong on the green. At 73 per cent, however, it is still her weakest surface to date. She won nine of her last eleven matches.
After French Open title number three, the world number one went to Bad Homburg. She lost the first set against Tatjana Maria, but dominated the other rounds until the semi-finals.
She was unable to play in the last four due to illness and withdrew as a precaution to recover for Wimbledon. The plan has worked out so far.
She won two sets without a tiebreak against Lin Zhu, Sara Sorribes Tormo and Petra Martic. As always, she was ice-cold, especially on the second serves of her opponents.
Sorribes Tormo only managed two of her 16 points. Martic at least managed a rate of 36 percent, but only conceded one less with five breaks.
It was more complicated for Swiatek against Belinda Bencic. The Swiss won the first set and also made it to the tiebreak in the second, but lost it clearly 7-2.
In the end, the match tilted completely in the direction of the world number one. Swiatek had nine break chances, but in contrast to the first matches, he only used two of them.
Now she plays Svitolina in the quarter-finals, who has come back with strong results after her baby break. She won on clay in Strasbourg and reached the quarter-finals at Roland Garros.
Swiatek (1.14 odds) is the clear favourite at Bet3000. The stake is quintupled with a successful bet on Svitolina.
Her debut on grass went completely wrong against Linda Fruhvirtova (6-2, 6-0) in Birmingham. A two-week break until the Wimbledon opener got her back on track.
In the first round she met tennis legend Venus Williams, whom she defeated in two sets. Closer to home was Elise Mertens (6-1, 1-6, 6-1). She then took out Sofia Kenin (7-6, 6-2) and Victoria Azarenka (2-6, 6-4, 7-6).
She served confidently in the last three rounds, winning around three quarters of her points on first serve. Only her second serve was shaky at 38 per cent against Azarenka.
A good rate of successful first serves will be important against Swiatek. Against Azarenka it was an impressive 75 per cent, but against Kenin it was just over 50.
She will certainly not give Swiatek an easy win. Over 18.5 games should be possible and are in the range of 1.55 odds at Bet-at-home.
In the only duel so far, the 22-year-old (6-2, 7-5) prevailed in two sets. The match was played on Swiatek’s favourite surface, clay. On grass, I see an even closer duel.
My Swiatek Svitolina tip
Swiatek has been shaky against Bencic. She is not as dominant on grass as she is on the other surfaces.
Svitolina has served strongly in her first matches and should be able to hold her own against Swiatek for long stretches.
In addition, the Pole is not without mistakes on her own service. I expect an exciting match that Swiatek will win in the end, but not in a hurry.
My Swiatek Svitolina tip: Over 18,5 games
