Wimbledon, Round of 16, Sunday, 09.07.2023
Jannik Sinner is on his way again in 2023 – after reaching the quarter-finals last year – to the last eight of Wimbledon. He will meet Daniel Elahi Galan in the round of 16.
In their only meeting so far in 2021, the Italian won in two sets. The oddsmakers expect a clear-cut affair in London as well. I analyse which bets are best for this match in my Sinner Galan Tip.
On his way to the last 16 at Wimbledon, Sinner has only dropped one set. He advanced to round two with a quick 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 win over Juan Manuel Cerundolo.
There, Diego Schwartzman (7-5, 6-1, 6-2) was also unable to do anything against the 21-year-old. Only Quentin Halys (3-6, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4) put some pressure on with the first successful set, but Sinner dealt with it confidently.
In total, he only allowed three breaks in these three games. Despite the short game lengths, the former professional skier played himself out of a whopping 34 opportunities.
There is no question that he is also the favourite against surprise round of 16 finalist Daniel Elahi Galan. 1.03 is his win rate at Bet3000, the Colombian’s is in the 11.00 range.
For Galan, the fourth round is a new record at a Grand Slam tournament. But he already reached round three of the most important grass court tournament of the year last year.
Yoshihito Nishioka (6-4, 6-3, 6-3) was the first stop in 2023, then Oscar Otte (6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6) was due. On Friday, there was an energy-sapping five-set match against Mikael Ymer (6-2, 6-7, 7-6, 3-6, 6-1).
Galan mastered the tasks with nerves of steel and efficiency. In round one, he took all six break chances. Against Ymer, he was successful on ten of 13 opportunities.
At the same time, however, he was vulnerable himself on some service games. In the entire tournament, he already had 30 break points against him. He would have to eliminate this weakness against Sinner.
After all, the South Tyrolean is one of the best defensive players on the tour. However, I think a quantum leap in performance is unlikely.
I can imagine that there will only be a few problem-free service games on Sunday. Therefore, Sinner’s set loss is not necessarily to be expected.
Bet365 offers 1.57 odds for the straight 3-0. If the under 0.5 tiebreak bet is added using the betting configurator, the result is even 2.00.
If you prefer even higher odds, you can also bet on under 18.5 games for Sinner at Bet-at-home. For the odds of 2.35, Sinner should not allow himself any seventh games in a three-set victory.
In his only duel so far, there was a set with a 7-5 outcome. At the Davis Cup in November 2021, however, he gave the 27-year-old no chance. At that time, the professionals faced each other on a hard court.
My Sinner Galan Tip
Sinner has yet to have much trouble with his rivals at Wimbledon, playing his way to 34 break chances in just ten sets.
Galan had almost the same amount of break chances against him. He is shaky in his service games. Against Ymer, he only managed 55 per cent of his points.
Given these numbers, I think a set ending in a tiebreak is very unlikely. Sinner has not had to play one out at Wimbledon anyway. I am convinced that he will be spared this in the round of 16 as well.
My Sinner Galan tip: Under 0.5 tiebreaks in the match!
