Wimbledon, 2nd Round, Wednesday, 05.07.2023
After a commanding opening win over Juan Pablo Varillas, Lorenzo Musetti will take on Jaume Munar in the 2nd round of the Grand Slam tournament at Wimbledon.
The Spaniard took John Isner out of the tournament. In my Musetti Munar tip, I explain why he is rightly listed as a clear underdog in the second round despite the 3:0 status in the direct duel against Musetti.
Musetti has yet to achieve any great success on grass, but this year the 21-year-old should be satisfied with his debut. He reached the quarter-finals at the ATP tournaments in Stuttgart and London.
In Stuttgart, after wins over Borna Gojo and Gregoire Barrere, he had to admit defeat to the eventual tournament winner Frances Tiafoe after three sets and two tiebreaks.
For Jan Choinski and Ben Shelton, Musetti was the final stop in London before he himself was thwarted by Holger Rune.
As in the first two tournaments on grass, Musetti made it through round one at Wimbledon. The 27-year-old Varillas was a grateful opponent who has only played and lost three grass court matches in his career.
His next opponent Munar is not much more comfortable on the fast surface. He has only left three of his 14 matches as the winner.
Accordingly, Munar (5.40) is also listed as a blatant underdog. Musetti’s win percentage, on the other hand, is in the low 1.16 range.
In contrast to Musetti, Munar did not play a preparatory tournament on grass before Wimbledon. Instead, he played clay-court Challengers in Italy and Heilbronn. Twice he reached the quarter-finals.
The success against “Big John” was a surprise for the oddsmakers and experts. After all, the US American is strong on grass, winning four times in Newport and reaching the semi-finals of Wimbledon once.
But with only 13 matches in practice and a break of over a month, not much went right for the 2.08-metre man after winning the first set. In the end, he also took too few of his twelve break opportunities.
As a player with a strong return, it should be another pleasant task for Musetti in the second round of Wimbledon. He already took six service games from Varillas and served confidently himself. Only the point rate after the second serve (52 per cent) could be improved.
Already against Tiafoe, he was similarly susceptible on the second serve. In his last defeat against Rune, he even converted only 28 percent of the points. The second serve could also turn out to be an Achilles’ heel in the second round of Wimbledon.
But then Munar himself has to win his service games in order to come close to winning the set. The statistics show how difficult that is for him on grass.
Apart from the win against an Isner without match practice in June, he only managed two other victories against Thiago Moura Monteiro at Wimbledon 2022 and in his junior years in 2014.
Eleven times he left the court as a loser and in seven matches he did not even manage to win a set. Bet365 is offering 2.20 for a 3-0 bet on Musetti.
The high odds are mainly due to the direct duels. There it is quite surprisingly 3:0 for Munar. However, all previous matches have been played on clay. Most recently, they played the second round of the ATP in Santiago de Chile (6-4, 6-4) in March.
Given the many break chances in the first round matches of both players, I expect quite a few lost service games and not necessarily a tiebreak.
In Munar’s last ten matches, there was only one tiebreak, Musetti’s three. Therefore, a bet on under 0.5 tiebreaks at the Betano rate of 2.15 could also be considered.
The 1.22 for under 1.5 tiebreaks, meanwhile, is great for a Wimbledon combo ticket.
My Musetti Munar Tip
Musetti definitely has a score to settle with Munar after losing three straight duels and will be looking to beat the Spaniard for the first time. On grass, the chances are good that he will succeed.
Except for a 3:0 success, however, the odds are too low to recommend a bet on Musetti. Given the rare tiebreak quantity in their matches and the high number of break chances, I opt for the following bet.
My Musetti Munar tip: Under 0.5 tiebreaks in a match!
