Wimbledon, 1st Round, Tuesday, 04.07.2023
Carlos Alcaraz is looking to bounce back at Wimbledon after a bitter semi-final exit at the French Open. According to the odds, he is the top favourite after Novak Djokovic for the most popular title in the tennis world.
In round one, he must prevail against Jeremy Chardy. For the betting providers, the duel is a clear number. I reveal which bets are on offer for the world number two’s opening match in my Alcaraz Chardy tip.
There were bitter moments at the French Open for Alcaraz when cramps all over his body slowed him down in the semi-final against Djokovic. He was clearly the better player in the second set.
Just when he was able to get the match on track, it got so bad that he had to give up the points to the Serb almost without fighting back.
The elimination at Roland Garros was followed by a short break for Alcaraz before he started the grass court season at the Queens Club 500 tournament.
Like so many other top-10 players, he stumbled on his start on grass, dropping the first set to Arthur Rinderknech. But the Spaniard fought his way back.
It was to remain the only set loss in the entire tournament. The success against Rinderknech was followed by wins against Jiri Lehecka, Grigor Dimitrov, Sebastian Korda and Alex De Minaur.
In none of the matches did he have to go into a tiebreak or a 7-5 set win. He dominated the action, as has been his wont in recent months.
The speedy Alcaraz cleared break chances by the dozen and left the competition no chance. For Chardy, too, his first encounter against the former world number one should be an insurmountable task.
Betano has given the Frenchman 15.5 odds. Those who want to make a profit with a win bet on Alcaraz will probably have to wait for tougher opponents. For the first round match, he has been assigned 1.01 odds.
On the one hand, the odds are due to the Spaniard’s playing class, but also to the former world number 25’s lack of match practice.
2022 Chardy failed to play a single match and in 2023 he played just five, winning only one of them. One win from the last two calendar years and now it’s against one of the best players in the world.
He celebrated his only victory at a major. He beat Daniel Elahi Galan in the first round. This was followed by clear defeats against Daniel Evans, Hugo Gaston and Lorenzo Sonego.
He made it to the tiebreak at least in his only grass court match this year against Mackenzie McDonald. But the US American also solved the task in two sets.
He has often been able to prove what he is capable of on grass in the past. He has already reached the semi-finals at the Queens Club, won at Surbiton and reached the last 16 at Wimbledon in 2014.
But those days are long gone. He is currently fighting his way back after the long break, but has only played five matches in the last few months.
In comparison, Alcaraz has been on the pitch 44 times. In these 44 matches, he has suffered as many defeats as Chardy in five matches, a clear statistic.
A suitable bet would accordingly be “Under 18.5 match wins for Alcaraz”.
Given his dominance against more settled opposition in the London 500 tournament and Chardy’s limited match experience, this is unquestionably a top bet.
Alternatively, a combination of “3:0 for Alcaraz” and “Under 0.5 tiebreaks” would offer itself with the Bet365 betting configurator. Then the 7-5 set wins would be covered. But the odds would only be 1.53.
My Alcaraz Chardy Tip
Alcaraz has been the best tennis player this year in terms of winning percentage and he has outplayed opponents at the Queens Club after a bumpy start.
If he doesn’t need a seventh game to secure the set against Dimitrov, De Minaur and co, it should be even more so against a Chardy.
I expect the Spanish high-flyer to have no problems against Chardy, securing early breaks in every set and winning all three sets with six games. Therefore, I decide on the following bet:
Under 18.5 games for Alcaraz.
