French Open 2023, Final, Sunday, 11.06.2023
Novak Djokovic can become the sole record holder for most Grand Slam titles on Sunday. A win against Zverev beater Casper Ruud would see him move clear of Rafael Nadal.
In the semi-finals, he beat Carlos Alcaraz, who struggled with cramps all over his body from the third set onwards, almost motionless only an extra in the match.
Casper Ruud could win his first Grand Slam. The 24-year-old is in the final of one of the four glorious tournaments for the third time. In my Djokovic Ruud tip, I give a prediction with the best odds on the match.
For Norway it could be a successful sports weekend in disciplines where the Scandinavians have rarely made headlines with title wins in the past.
Erling Haaland, arguably the world’s best striker at the moment, is in the Champions League final with Manchester City and Casper Ruud is fighting against Novak Djokovic for the French Open title in 2023.
It would be his first Grand Slam tournament triumph and he would also be the first Norwegian to achieve the feat of Grand Slam triumph.
This is the third attempt for the 24-year-old. Last year, Ruud also reached the final at Roland Garros, but lost to clay-court king Rafael Nadal.
At the US Open, he lost to the high-flyer Carlos Alcaraz. It almost came to this duel again. But in the third final, Ruud will again face a new opponent: Novak Djokovic.
The Serb played a strong first set in the semi-final against Alcaraz, who made too many errors in the first. In the second, the young Spaniard had the reins in his hands.
With a game winner in set three, things went well. The match was clearly threatening to tip in Alcaraz’s direction. But then the young tennis star started to get cramps in various parts of his body.
He could not get rid of them until the end of the match. Nevertheless, Alcaraz, who was only immobile, finished the match with two 6-1 sets at the end from the 16-year older “Djoker”.
The 22-time Grand Slam champion played a commanding tournament, conceding only two sets in all. He won the first four matches against Aleksandar Kovacevic, Marton Fucsovics, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Juan Pablo Varillas in three straight sets.
Things got a little more complicated for Djokovic, who would also be world number one again with a win in the final, in the quarter-finals against Karen Khachanov. After a 4-6 he fought his way into the match: 7-6, 6-2, 6-4.
For the bookmakers, Djokovic is the clear favourite. Bet365 gives him 1.22 odds. A successful bet on Ruud will win 4.50 times the stake.
The most likely outcome is 3:0 for Djokovic, at 2.50 odds. For three sets in general in the match, 2.25 can be played.
However, given the Norwegian’s strong tournament record as well, with his variable game making him unpleasant for any opponent on court, I expect him to win a set in any case.
For over 3.5 sets, the betting provider Betano has a 1.62 on offer. In my opinion, this bet definitely has value. Djokovic would need three sets at a very high level to be able to solve it without losing a set.
After all, the Norwegian makes very few errors and served strongly in the semi-final against Alexander Zverev, among others. The German, who did not follow up on his previous performances, lost clearly (6-3, 6-4, 6-0).
Too many errors and wrong decisions in stroke selection as well as a lack of consistency on groundbreaking points prevented Zverev from reaching the final for the first time in his third Roland Garros semi-final in a row.
Overall, the German did not find his way into the match for any length of time and took just one of his nine break chances, at the same time bringing through just 55 per cent of points after first serve and 45 per cent after second serve.
Previously, Ruud prevailed against the last Djokovic defeater Holger Rune and against the up-and-coming Nicolas Jarry.
If he is to clinch his first Grand Slam title this time, he will also have to achieve his first victory and first set wins against Djokovic.
In the first four duels, he lost outright in two sets to the record-breaking champion. Twice they played each other on the red clay of Rome and twice at the ATP Finals.
Only one tiebreak was played in the eight sets. In general, I expect a break-filled match and think a tiebreak is unlikely. A bet on under 0.5 tiebreaks can be placed at Betano at 2.05.
Summary: Both players played a commanding tournament until the final. Djokovic only dropped two sets, Ruud three. In the end, Djokovic will probably prevail, but not without losing a set.
Ruud has been too strong for that in the last few matches, and he is likely to strike immediately in a short phase of weakness for the Serb. I’m committing myself to at least four sets being played at the weekend.
Therefore, in my Djokovic Ruud tip I opt for over 3.5 sets in the final of the French Open 2023.
