Indian Wells Open, Qualifying, Tuesday, 07.03.2023
Finally the first Masters tournament of the 2023 tennis season starts. Currently the qualifying matches of the Indian Wells Open are taking place.
Among others, Dusan Lajovic and Tennys Sandgren have to go through the qualifiers, who will meet in the night from Monday to Tuesday, at 02:40.
The Serb is seeded number one in the preliminary round. Will he live up to his role as favourite? In my Lajovic Sandgren tip I analyse the match.
The quarter-finals might not have been Dusan Lajovic’s favourite round of late. In his last three tournaments, he was eliminated in the last eight each time.
First, he lost to Carlos Alcaraz at the Argentina and Rio Open and last week he was clearly beaten by Tomas Martin Etcheverry from Argentina 6-1, 6-2.
All three tournaments were played on clay. Now Lajovic returns to hard court for the first time since the Australian Open.
He lost his last match on the surface in four sets against Denis Shapovalov (4-6, 6-4, 4-6, 1-6). Especially after the first serve he could not win enough points, only 68 per cent of all the points he played.
The clay court matches that followed went better. Lajovic won eight of the eleven games. In two of the defeats, he met Alcaraz, one of the best clay court players in the world.
His form is accordingly respectable. The betting companies know that, too. At Betano, Lajovic is the favourite at 1.55 against Sandgren. The US American’s odds are 2.37. For a clear 2:0 win, bettors get a 2.37.
Surprisingly weak was the performance of Lajovic in the last two games. Even in his win over Juan Manuel Cerundolo (6-2, 2-6, 7-6) in the second round of the Chile Open, he managed to score relatively few points from his own serve.
It was 64 per cent after the first serve and only 36 per cent when the Serb had to go over the second serve.
In the quarter-final against Etcheverry, his percentage dropped even further. At 52 per cent, he could only just secure the point from every second first serve, allowing four breaks without getting one back himself.
How will Lajovic bounce back after this bitter defeat and how will he manage the transition to hard court? He has a good chance of qualifying against Sandgren, who has not played at his former top level for a long time.
But the US American, who was still ranked 41st in the world in 2019, is a specialist on the fast surface, like so many of his compatriots.
In addition, he has not played on any other surface in his matches since August 2022. On the hard court, he is thus much more experienced than Lajovic.
But that should be one of the few advantages for him in this duel. For Sandgren, a place in the main draw would be a massive success.
In the previous months, the 31-year-old could be found on the lists of Challenger tournaments, failed twice in the quarterfinals and once in the first round in Thailand in 2023.
Things went better in Cleveland at the beginning of February, when he at least reached the semi-finals after three wins. In the following weeks, however, things went downhill again.
He did not qualify for the 250 tournament in Delray Beach. At the Rome Challenger he retired in the first round.
The last duel between the two players was almost ten years ago. In Melbourne 2014, Lajovic won 7-6, 6-3.
Sandgren is currently more experienced on hard court, but has not been convincing in recent tournaments. Player-wise, Lajovic is clearly on a better level.
The Serb currently has a strong record. Apart from Etcheverry, only clay court specialist Carlos Alcaraz could stop him. However, his performance dropped off in the last two matches in particular.
But when he qualifies for the Indian Wells Open, I think Lajovic will be able to play at his best again. My Lajovic Sandgren tip is therefore: Lajovic wins!
