ATP Finals, Group Stage, Wednesday, 16.11.2022
It was exactly what they both wanted to avoid: A narrow defeat in the first match! Both Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are under huge pressure on Wednesday, definitely not losing a second time.
At the ATP Finals, there will only be one, unfortunately, who will also miss a second win. Therefore, in my Tsitsipas Medvedev tip, I now ask the important question: Who has more grain for the last serves of the year?
Betano tends to focus on the Russian, even though he has not always been at his best in recent weeks. Will it simply be a case of better form on the day that decides this duel?
A disappointing end to the year is looming! Daniil Medvedev may not have done badly on the road in 2022, but the runaways to the top in major tournaments, they are not really in evidence this time.
The Russian had actually intended to bounce back in Turin after his disappointment in Paris, where he failed to beat Alex De Minaur in the very 1st round, but in his first match it didn’t look like he could get his act together again.
In the duel against his compatriot Andrey Rublev, Medvedev lacked the killer instinct, he was far too lax on service. He lost 7-6, (7), 3-6, 6-7 (7), committed six double faults and gave away nine break chances.
At the moment, nothing reminds of the player who never lets himself get rattled on his own serve. Medvedev looks tired, after always winning all his group matches at the finals in 2020 and 2021, he started less successfully now.
Three years ago, on his debut, he blew all three matches, including one against Stefanos Tsitsipas. The score was 6-7, 4-6, but the Greek is still clearly behind in the direct comparison.
The score is 7-3 for Medvedev, but let’s take a closer look at the matches. Both have actually always been involved in close matches, five of the most recent six, for example, contained at least one tiebreak.
The two players have already faced each other twice this year. At the Australian Open, Medvedev won in four sets, then in Cincinnati it was Tsitsipas who triumphed in three.
Do the German betting companies also expect a close match on Wednesday? No, on average they see Medvedev relatively clearly in front with 1.40 to 3.00. Stefanos Tsitsipas might like to think back to the aforementioned win from 2019.
It was his very first time at the finals and not only did he beat Daniil Medvedev, but he ended up grabbing the very big trophy! In 2020 and 2021 he won’t have much to say in the last competition of the year.
But there is one thing that might encourage him. We are referring to the year 2020, because 365 days ago he gave up after the first match. Two years ago, he narrowly lost the first match against Dominic Thiem.
He picked himself up, beat Andrey Rublev and fought his way to a decisive third game (which he unfortunately lost to Rafael Nadal in the end)! Could be a good omen as this time he is also coming off a loss to a Russian.
4-6, 6-7 against Novak Djokovic, Tsitsipas could have done better at the start. He missed his only break chance, while the Djoker converted one of his two, and there was the defeat.
The 24-year-old actually put in a decent performance, but there is still room for improvement on his second serve. Two final defeats and one semi-final, his most recent four tournaments show that he is currently lacking the final punch.
It is difficult to predict whether Stefanos Tsitsipas or Daniil Medvedev can go to the last reserves. I could hardly notice any improvement in Medvedev’s game compared to Paris, especially when he is on his own service he still seems erratic.
Tsitsipas, on the other hand, played very well against Djokovic, but was just that little bit weaker at the decisive moment. But the Greek was very successful on serve, only conceding one break.
I expect a hard-fought duel on Wednesday, which nobody wants to lose. However, after the last few performances, I don’t trust Medvedev to beat Tsitsipas outright and therefore recommend the following tip:
Tsitsipas wins at least one set!
