French Grand Prix at Le Castellet, Sunday, 24/07/2022
Half of the Formula 1 season is over and it is more exciting than ever. In the fight for the world championship crown, the two top teams Ferrari and Red Bull are giving each other nothing. Most recently, the Scuderia was back on the winner’s podium, but that could change again in Le Castellet.
At least if you believe the German bookmakers, who have Max Verstappen as the favourite with odds of around 2.10. After all, the Dutchman already won the race last year.
After all, the Dutchman already excelled last year at the French Grand Prix, back then still against in the battle with Lewis Hamilton. The Briton will break another record in France, as for Hamilton it will be the 300th Grand Prix in his career.
If you trust the upward trend of the last races, then the Mercedes should also shine in Le Castellet, after all the team has the most reliable car in the field.
However, in my Formula 1 prediction for the French Grand Prix, I don’t expect Mercedes to be able to mix in the top 3 between Red Bull and Ferrari.
Why I believe in my Formula 1 bet that a Ferrari and a Red Bull will share the podium, but the Scuderia will still come out on top in qualifying, I’ll tell you in my preview of the race.
After a two-week break, it’s time for the next double header in July. At the French Grand Prix, the very close world championship battle goes into the next round.
Leclerc finally managed to win again after a drought of five races without a victory, while rival Verstappen struggled with the tyres.
Nevertheless, not everything is rosy at Ferrari, while Red Bull has problems with the slicks, as it has several times this season.
That’s why the two teams are currently on an equal footing and at the moment nuances decide between victory and defeat. It is very difficult to make a clear prediction here.
This in turn puts the Silver Arrows on the map. Because Mercedes seems to have understood the problems in the meantime and at least if it’s not a street circuit, Hamilton and co can drive at the front.
Even on this track with fast corners and long straights, as well as the smooth asphalt, Mercedes could finish in the top three.
For that to happen, the competition will have to slip up. Because Ferrari and Red Bull, unlike Mercedes, are struggling with reliability. Most recently Carlos Sainz in Spielberg, the week before Sergio Perez.
In addition, the Le Castellet circuit has very high tyre wear. Because of the fast corners and the high temperatures of up to 37° on race day, it will be exciting to see who has to pit first.
At such temperatures and due to the track layout, the front tyres in particular are put under a lot of strain. Therefore, a technical failure is not unlikely.
I expect one or two technical failures and a tyre blowout, so my prediction is that less than 17.5 cars will see the chequered flag.
Failures are far from the Haas team’s mind at the moment. After years of poor performance and many race retirements, the American team finally seems to be putting a solid car on the tarmac.
Mick Schumacher’s good form of the last races also continues and he drove into the points again in Spielberg. As the track is similar in terms of characteristics, the German could also score important points in the constructors’ championship in France.
The French GP has already been removed from the race calendar and once again it could possibly be the last French Grand Prix for a long time. Because the organisers have money, but not too much.
In recent years, Lewis Hamilton won twice and Max Verstappen once. However, the chances of Ferrari winning for the first time since the 2008 season are better than ever.
The last 5 races at Circuit Paul Ricard:
From a track layout point of view, Le Castellet, which rejoined the race calendar in 2018 after 10 years, is considered a less spectacular circuit as it is very wide and offers few overtaking opportunities.
The best places to regain a lead are the two long straights, which are interrupted by a chicane. In the faster corners, on the other hand, it becomes more difficult to make up places.
Still, if Mercedes will also be at the front, the top position could swap several times. With three different teams at the top, the German betting companies are offering a value of around 1.61.
In the end, it will largely come down to the tyres. According to Verstappen, Red Bull only had the car set up wrong in Spielberg, and Ferrari has also had its problems.
For Mercedes, who have handled the tyres really well so far, there could be a real opportunity here with the updates and the right strategy. After all, the Silver Arrows are the only team to have been spared retirements.
Summary: 38 points separate Leclerc and Verstappen. Currently, the two teams are very similar to almost on par in terms of performance and car.
Apart from tyre management, things could also get exciting with Sainz. Because the Spaniard will probably revert to his fourth power unit after the fire in the car and thus be penalised.
It’s getting harder and harder to make a clear win prediction as Mercedes are slowly closing in alongside Ferrari and Red Bull. With Leclerc, Verstappen and Hamilton, there are three incredibly talented and experienced drivers on the grid.
Clearly, nuances, the right strategy and perfect tyre management will be decisive here. Although I see Verstappen ahead in terms of performance, I think Leclerc will still be able to get the car around the track better on one lap.
So my tip for qualifying is: “Pole Leclerc”.
