Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku, Sunday, 12.06.2022
The next hot double header in Formula 1 is coming up. Before heading to North America, the top class of motorsport will first make a guest appearance on the Caspian Sea. At the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, the battle between Red Bull and Ferrari goes into the next round.
The momentum seems to be on the side of the world champion car. The question is whether Ferrari will be able to build on its initial dominance. In the meantime, it has become a three-way fight. Not between Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes, but between Leclerc, Verstappen and Perez.
That’s why, in my Formula 1 forecast for the QF of the Azerbaijan GP, I believe that Red Bull will take pole.
Max Verstappen might not have good memories of the trip to Azerbaijan so far. He is being haunted by the Baku curse. The world champion has not finished on the podium in any of the five races so far.
Last season, he was even close to being on top, but a puncture cost him the race in the end. However, the momentum in the world championship battle is on Red Bull’s side and could also be decisive at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
In the last race, Sergio Perez triumphed, extending his lead over the Scuderia. Nevertheless, the two Red Bull drivers are not the favourites in Formula 1 betting on the Azerbaijan GP.
However, Verstappen is likely to get a new engine, so with fresh power he has a very good chance of a podium finish this time.
In general, Red Bull is the ultimate in terms of top speed. The car is also the best on the track in the slow corners, so from the overall package the Red Bull should have an advantage.
But Sergio Perez also has something to say about the podium. Three podium finishes, including a victory last year, show that the Mexican is a candidate for victory with the current momentum.
On the other hand, who will definitely be racing with a new power unit is Ferrari. And they will need it if Leclerc is not to lose out.
Too many mistakes cost Ferrari important points recently, so it would be all the more important to perform now in Baku. Carlos Sainz in particular must perform now in order not to lose touch.
Technically, the team is travelling with a different rear wing in order to keep up with Red Bull. At the German bookmakers, Leclerc is the favourite, at least as far as pole is concerned, with odds of around 2.0.
That’s because – seen on a lap – the Ferrari puts out the better car and that’s why Leclerc often started the race from the first row of the grid this season. If the team can now put an end to simple mistakes like the pit stop, it could be really exciting.
The internal Mercedes team duel also promises to be exciting. Hamilton has lost the lead. Russell is currently the better driver with 34 points more.
The young Briton is getting on better with the difficult-to-drive car and is now showing why Mercedes snatched him away from Williams last season.
In addition, Mercedes is now getting a better grip on the porpoising problem. It remains to be seen whether this will not be an issue in Baku with its very long straight.
Mick Schumacher, on the other hand, is fighting for his future. With several crashes recently, the son of the multiple world champion has raised doubts about his F1 fitness.
Kevin Magnussen, who had actually been performing well recently, also had to retire in Monaco. The season had started so well for the American team, but in the meantime Haas is again the chaos team with mistakes and crashes on massé.
This is another reason why a retirement as the first team is not unlikely. Because especially in the tight corners on the fast street circuits, the smallest mistakes are punished.
But for all drivers this track will be an absolute challenge. Unlike Monaco last week, this is a high-speed circuit, despite the tight corners.
The last 4 races at the Baku City Circuit:
It’s hard to pick a real favourite here. Because the last few years have also shown that daily form and luck are more decisive here than on other tracks.
The circuit offers overtaking opportunities especially on the 1.9 km long straight at the start and after turn 1. Otherwise, tyre management will be crucial here, as it will be difficult to get them up to temperature through the many corners.
So the challenge for the teams and the drivers is to make a lot of speed on the straight and not to lose too much time in the corners. Crashes are bound to happen.
The 30°C weather could also cause one or two surprises with regard to tyres and cars. Even Bernd Mayländer expects two safety car phases. For the prediction of the safety car driver, Formula 1 betting odds for the Azerbaijan GP are around 3.50.
Conclusion: This race promises excitement and spectacle, as it has in recent years. Because every year at least one story was written that caused discussion.
Last season Max Verstappen was on the verge of taking his first podium. The tyre blowout was unfortunate to the maximum and in turn brought Perez to his first Baku victory.
This year it could be similarly exciting between the two Red Bull drivers. Because Perez comes to Azerbaijan with great self-confidence thanks to his victory in Monaco. In addition, both drivers have the best car for the track.
Luxury problems you would like to have at Ferrari. Due to incredibly naive mistakes in the last races – also by the team – the Scuderia gambled away its World Championship lead and now has to strike back in Baku after four unsuccessful races.
However, I only see Leclerc within striking distance of Red Bull. Sainz, as we saw in the last races, doesn’t handle the car as well as the Monegasque. In any case, the pace per lap could help to get pole for the time being.
However, I believe that Red Bull will also be able to play to their strengths in qualifying, especially on the straights, and Verstappen will drive to first place with his experience.
That’s why my tip is: Verstappen takes pole with a fabulous lap
